1984, Y2K, 2012...

1984, Y2K, 2012...(12/28/2011) It started last week when I saw my first article referencing a countdown to the winter solstice of 2012 when the Mayan calendar predicts the world will end. I think this is silliness and would be the same as a future archaeologist mining a 21st century landfill and finding a “Snap-On” tools calendar ending 12/31/2011. Speculative archaeologists make conclusions based on limited data and future generations could infer we worshipped scantily clad women and predicted our termination at the end of this year. Cultures have always focused on end-of-time events. I believe a fascination with the opportunity to have a genesis of life provides hope by focusing on doomsday dates . Whether fueled by Nostradamus, lunatics like Harold Camping, a novel written by George Orwell, or the errors of 1960’s computer programmers, Hollywood, the media, and internet pundits focus on predictions to build their own following and create panic. Speculation from movies like The Road, Armageddon, or 2012 feed the appetite of people seeing hope through termination of today’s woes and a clean start in a new world. Predictions of an Orwellian society did not come true in 1984. However, a slow incremental change has occurred and continues to take us closer to that vision nearly every day. Slowly liberties and freedoms are eroding to government sponsored surveillance and restricted speech, travel, and freedoms. Looking back to 1999 we know airplanes did not fall from the sky or satellites crash to earth, and traffic lights and computers continued to operate. However, more than any prophetic event facing our world the hype around Y2K contained a level of validity. Personally, as a software-company owner at the time, I benefitted from failures of my competitors to update products for the year 2000 and conclude a level of failure was avoided through preparation. In 2012 disasters are looming on the horizon which may create the feel of a societal collapse and end life as we know it. At the end of 2011 when we feel the worst of the financial crisis is behind us the world governments have used their ammunition to save the economies but the battle must continue. With no way left to fight Europe will face its biggest financial challenge and could ultimately collapse upon itself. Although China has expanded rapidly growth will halt and credit will freeze due to an American and European consumer hunkered down awaiting the end of the world where iPhones and shopping malls will no longer be important. Western nations will fight to recover outsourced industries, realizing globalism created a Roman Empire like gluttonous lifestyle and they must save themselves through isolationism, thus shutting down third-world development and freezing economic growth. I predict the world will not end December 21, 2012. However, our current malaise will continue to exacerbate and make many wish an epic calamity would cleanse our past mistakes. Careful prudence and pragmatism will guide the successful whereas hardship will enslave many of our friends and neighbors unwilling to change old habits. Ultimately we will look back laughingly at the hyped prophecy of 2012 as we do past predictions. Next up, Hollywood can focus on the impending collision of the Apophis Asteroid on April 13, 2036. Happy New Year!

Live Life Like You’re Dying

Live Life Like You’re Dying (11/9/2011) Too many people put off until tomorrow the things they want to do today. Personally, I am a goal oriented person and manage my life with short-term and long-term objectives. For example, with the change of seasons in north Georgia I am very conscious regarding preparations for winter: cutting and splitting wood, testing space heaters, and making sure outdoor water pipes are winterized. Easy examples, but yet also easy to put off until a storm like the one that hit the northeast is upon you. Recently my wife and I have been watching the television show “24” from its beginning. In the second season the character George Mason is poisoned by radioactive material and knows he will die within the next seven days. Although he does not know specifically whether he will live days or a week, he begins making amends with his estranged son. Of course, this is fiction, but somberly reminds me life can change instantly. This past weekend two men were killed in a plane crash outside Williston, Florida. I knew one of the men, Mike Fuller, and planned to meet with him next week. In an instant, his life ended tragically. Movies like, The Bucket List, Eat Love Pray, or Soul Surfer win our hearts in the theater due the common theme of perseverance against formidable odds. In each case a goal is set, and a plan executed to ultimately triumph over personal tragedy or dreams. I am follower of James Altucher’s blog, “JamesAltucher.com” and last week he wrote a column titled, “The #1 Most Effective Habit” that articulated the same points I want to make. First among them is being proactive. Too often I meet people who tell me they want to travel, write a book, or even learn to fly, but all succumb to excuses and the “naysayers.” Altucher challenges his readers to start by making a list, eliminate the “bad people” and most importantly just get started. Over the last three weeks I have published a book, Clearly Ambiguous, hiked Yonah Mountain, and had a weekend away with my wife. None of the above is significant, but like the life goals in The Bucket List they incrementally take me to a better place in my life. Over the same three weeks I met a young man who hiked the Appalachian Trail last year and I read an article about 17 year-old Taylor De Lay who circumnavigated a homebuilt aircraft around the United States. I am guessing during the same three weeks many people did nothing, going to work, watching television, and griping about their misery. However, anyone can make a change in their own life. So my question is, “what would you do differently today if you knew you were going to die in the next week or month?” My follow up question is obvious, “since you know you will die (someday – we all will die), why aren’t you living your life like your dying?”

Defending Yourself

Defending Yourself (06/22/2011)

I wrestled with the title and content of this column realizing I wanted to challenge thought processes. My context is asking, “When would you take up arms?” Recent Supreme Court rulings, at state level and the federal level have eroded 4th Amendment rights. These freedoms have been held sacred since the Bill of Rights passed and evolved from British tyranny and further back to feudal tyranny. Looking around I see this erosion becoming the norm, no longer the exception. Sadly, people who raise questions are now “domestic terrorists” or “troublemakers” harassed through detention, no-fly lists, and watch lists.

If you are pulled aside for additional screening at an airport and suddenly find yourself touched inappropriately by a TSA officer are you willing to yell “Stop!” Are you willing to kick and punch to defend your person? Are you willing to engage local law enforcement to file assault charges? What if you are an 18 year old girl attending your high school prom and security guards run a hand up your bare thigh under your dress? Would you be willing to complain, or more importantly file a lawsuit like Candice Herrara of Santa Fe, New Mexico?

Examples of concern abound. Recent state and federal Supreme Court rulings have changed search and seizure rules allowing police offers more leeway. My question, without cause and absolutely wrong in your view and demanding entry to your home would you let them in? Similarly, what if you are legally and rightfully openly carrying a gun and police officers, not knowing the law, are now threatening you at gunpoint and moving to arrest you, as recently occurred in Philadelphia? What if you were selling unpasteurized milk or free range eggs on your farm and USDA Officials raided your homestead, guns drawn, and arrested you even though no crime was committed.

In theory we are all safe in our homes, our cars, and while traveling. Our founding fathers experienced British tyranny and knew fundamentally they had to protect themselves, their families, and their property. Obsequious citizenry today is leading to a government police state that turns neighbors against each other and infallible beliefs in lawmakers. Sooner or later “Dancing with Stars” will end and a confused America will realize they lost the freedom to defend themselves. Our children will believe pat-downs to attend prom are the norm and police can enter homes anytime. Are you willing to speak up and defend yourself? “The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted,” James Madison.

What lifestyle changes would you make?

Check out this house. Is it worth it? No mortgage, living happy without the fear of a bank taking everything. Depending on where you have been in the last two years financially you may not understand the changes taking place in America.

The Greatest Depression is continuing in a rapid downward spiral with the plummeting value of home prices. Too many Americans have tied their fate to the future of their home. Since 2008 home prices have fallen 33%.

What is a house? How many people thought they were living the dream of a McMansion - 4000 square feet and a $4000/month mortgage?

I will continue on my 1.6 acres of rural countryside - chickens, woods, space, and simplicity. Life is easy when you have less.

Crisis Preparation

I have read a lot about preparation for TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It) lately. However, I think there are other issues of greater concern than that which one must consider. I am repeating, changing, and re-writing some of what I have read. But, I go back to the root of what I have always known; preparation is about facing a threat. A threat can be measured three: probability of occurrence, intensity of destruction, and duration. A matrix should be made to consider the likelihood of a threat, where you might be during the occurrence, and what preparations should be made.

Supplies need consideration next. Preparation for supplies can be broken into several categories. Once the categories are identified a second stage of analysis must be completed – do you require mobility or will this preparation be to hunker down and stay in one location?

I feel most people fail to make any preparations in their lives because it is overwhelming to analyze “what-if” scenarios and planning around them. At the same time, ridicule of preparations is easy due to the old stereotypes of bomb-shelter fanatics, in the woods survivalists, and hippies living in communes off the grid. Ironically, these are the people that the unprepared will flee to.

Living in New Smyrna Beach, Florida I constantly faced a hurricane threat, but yet, like many friends and neighbors, brushed off this threat. I felt I could go to Wal-Mart, Lowes, or Home Depot and retrieve what I needed on demand. Although not as destructive as a ground-zero events like Katrina I faced three hurricanes in six weeks time. We faced a long duration of inconvenience – no credit card machines, gasoline shortages, lack of groceries, building materials shortages, and no ice. I had friends without electricity for 10 days. I could not locate a chainsaw chain to remove and cut trees. There was no ice available to keep food safe because there was no electricity. Gas stations were closed due to lack of electricity, the pumps would not work and they had no credit card machines. All of the foods spoiled in the grocery store meat and frozen sections. Thus, they were forced to close to clean up their stores and no groceries were available. This was a modern crisis of long duration.

Events like Katrina, 9/11, the Northridge earthquake, and spring floods make headlines. However, watching a crisis on the evening news is entirely different than living through it. One side of 9/11 often forgotten was the travelers stranded away from home – if you had boarded a plane on 9/10/2001 and traveled across the country for business you suddenly found yourself stranded without a way to return home. There was a sense of suspicion in the country and finding yourself stuck as an outsider with only business clothes to wear could create problems. Fortunately, the banking system stayed intact and credit card machines were not shut off. Had the financial industry been questioned, cash would have been required just to eat, pay hotel bills, and get new clothing. In this case it was not a significant event for those away from New York but an event of extreme inconvenience. Again, even telecommunications worked, but it is not hard to imagine the government shutting telecom to prevent communications among terrorists. In this case contacting family would not have been feasible, lending to panic among those stranded away from home.

Copyright (c) 2009 John R. Nelson. All Rights Reserved.