Generational Reach

Generational Reach (3/21/2012) Have you ever considered your legacy or the legacy of your family who came before you? The immediate touch to our children and grandchildren is obvious, but have you considered the stories your grandchildren will tell their grandchildren about you? In their book, The Fourth Turning, authors William Strauss ad Neal Howe propose the theory of generational reach. They describe this as memory span; the distance between the lives that touched you connected to the lives you will touch. Since reading about this concept I have considered thoughtfully who I am based on memories of my grandfather and how my grandchildren will remember me. When technology is factored into the concept an awareness of complexity becomes more apparent. To calculate your generational reach, think of the oldest person who influenced your life and their birthday. For me, it is my paternal grandfather, born 1899. Next, we must identify the youngest person you will touch. Most likely this will be a grandchild; if unborn today assume your youngest child will bear your grandchild at age 35 year and your unborn grandson will live to be 85 years old. For me, my son Ty will be 35 in 2047 and his son or daughter, my future grandchild, will live 85 years to 2125. Thus, my reach is (2125-1899) 226 years. I believe generational reach helps understand the differences in views toward politics, values, and everyday culture. Immigrants carry fresh in their mind the struggles to come to America and place value on family, hard work, and maintain their roots. Many families have been in American since the late 19th century or early 20th century, thus generational reach to a different time is a fresh memory, easily reached through one or two generations. In contrast, families with roots dating back to the late 18th century and early 19th century have lost touch with the fight to escape persecution and enjoy the fruits of others thrust upon them by an entitlement society. I believe generational reach slows progressive policies and grounds values in time. Shifts in culture acceptance of previously questionable behaviors are slowed. However, generational reach may also create rebellion as youth work to prove elders wrong and undo values established for conservative reasons. Take, for example, the late 1960’s when the hippie-youth counter-culture rebelled against the establishment of the day. Arguments were made regarding the disconnect between youthful opinion over the Vietnam War versus politicians sending other people’s sons to Southeast Asia. Today, similar disconnects are evolving as the Millennials protest , through the Occupy movements, decisions of an elder-political class intent on enslaving future generations through an unpayable debt. The generational reach today comes from the millennials whose grandparents tell stories of the thievery of banks in then 1930s and see similarities to today’s big banks. These same millennials will tell their grandchildren about the great recession and the lost decades of economic prosperity and how their future was stolen like their great-grandparents. They will touch forever lives extending forward another century in the history of America.

When are Races Won?

When are Races Won? (3/14/2012) Last summer I wrote a column titled, “The Media Elects Presidents;” a now prophetic article regarding the influence of corporate media on the nominations. Since the spring of 2011 the Republican nomination process has been underway although it did not officially start until the first Tuesday in January of this year. However, long ago it appeared a decision was made anointing Mitt Romney as the heir to the Republican nomination. My goal here is not to offer an opinion on the qualifications of the candidates, but instead want to analyze the process. Watching the recent Russian elections many media outlets around the world reported possible election fraud and manipulation. I believe Americans have always believed our elections were above such accusations and not subject to manipulation or theft. However, many seem to acknowledge questionable tactics in municipal elections like Chicago’s mayoral races, either like the Daly’s in the past or the most recent residency issues of Emmanuel. Similarly, the Bush and Gore vote division propelled true questions of integrity in our own system to the forefront of our attention. As of this week, there are only four candidates in the race: Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul. Of the bound delegates, according to the GOP web site, Romney leads with 339, Gingrich is second with 107, and Santorum is third with 95 delegates. Paul is clearly trailing in fourth place with 22 awarded delegates. Throughout the nomination race I have been puzzled by reporting from major media outlets like the case where Santorum won the Iowa Caucus, not Romney, even though the media was quick to report differently. Although Romney holds a sizable lead over his next closest competitor, only one-third of the total delegates have been awarded. Watching the process last summer and fall demonstrated a candidate’s demise could arrive without much warning. Regardless, since my original column eight months ago Romney has been the declared winner. I feel the problem with the constant polling and predictions of who will win is the voter apathy created. First instance, if Romney is the winner – as declared by the media before the race started, then why bother voting? When a voter believes his vote no longer matters he chooses to not participate in the process and ultimately fulfills the hypothesis that his vote no longer matters. If results were held back, speculation by the media held back, and no forecasts were made I assert the voters would remain more objective in the process and choose the candidate they feel best qualified for the job.

The Media Elects Presidents

The Media Elects Presidents (6/8/2011) Over the last 50 years I believe there has been a dramatic turn in Presidential elections. Arguably the headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman” in 1948 is reflective of media bias and anticipation toward election outcomes. Most academics will acknowledge the 1960 Presidential debate outcome was not determined by the quality of the candidate speeches, but instead by appearance on television. Nixon articulated much stronger responses but was no match for Kennedy’s suave television charm. Today the media is controlling who wins the nomination and the election in several ways. One method is withholding information and using editorial prejudice to positively influence opinion about candidates. Two documented cases exemplify this. First, the Clinton/Lewinsky scandal unreported by major broadcast and print outlets until Drudge’s persistence forced the issue to headlines and impeachment of the President. Second, the New York Times failure to print an article deemed damaging concerning the Obama/ACORN relationship which may have brought a different election outcome and it took the whimsical undercover video by James O’Keefe to finally destroy the organization. The second method of influence is the prejudicial nature of coverage of candidates. For example, The Project for Excellence in Journalism and Harvard University's Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy conducted a study of 5,374 media narratives about the presidential candidates from January 1 through March 9, 2008. The study found that Obama received 69% favorable coverage and Clinton received 67%, compared to only 43% favorable media coverage of McCain. An October 29, 2008 study found 29% of stories about Obama to be negative, compared to 57% of stories about McCain being negative. Finally, my last concern regarding media influence on politics is the pervasive use of public opinion polls. With every candidate announcement regarding potential Republican candidates a comparison poll is published. On NBC News May 26th nightly program speculation around Palin’s presidential announcement was offset by a poll showing candidate positioning, with Romney in the lead. The media has given far more coverage to Romney, Gingrich, and Palin than CPAC straw poll winner Ron Paul and Tea Party favorites Cain and Bachman. With an election 15 months away the media is focused on manipulating public opinion to control an outcome. Imagine what our election process would be like if there were no polls, no television pundits, and no scandalous coverage. Imagine speeches and debates, presented factually, without media editorial. I am not asserting to curtail freedom of the press, but instead push to present unedited coverage, eliminate polling, and present opinion as such, not news.

Out of Sync

Out of Sync (2/8/2012) Annually I experience the same odd weekend in late January or early February void of understanding the fascination of watching steroidal, beast-like millionaires engage in gladiator activities on a Sunday evening. I think my concern would wash away if the obsessed fans were willing to move from the couch and do more than head to Wal-Mart to purchase corn-syrup enriched foods to add to their excessively high caloric intake. For days beforehand morning and evening news programs beam critical messages to the masses about the must-watch game, cannot wait to be seen commercials, and the over-hyped halftime show. Unable to afford it, but still willing, consumers will purchase new televisions to achieve bragging rights among their friends. Grocery stores peddle mountains of soda and chips at the gateways to their stores and decorate like another holiday has come. On game day over zealous fans will don tribal colors to cheer for their millionaires and some will paint their skin or even forever mark themselves with tattoos. Hilariously, the word “we” will be used more than ever to claim membership on a team although no fan would be allowed near the celebrity players. With 45.8 million Americans on food stamps it is likely the SNAP card will purchase soda and chips to celebrate the day. For an afternoon the unemployed, those facing foreclosure, and many worried about job security will disregard the true American concerns instead asserting this ritual game as more important. Sadly, these same hurting neighbors will know more about the players, their names, hometowns, and meaningless statistics than they do members of congress, their state legislature, or local elected officials. Ironically, many support the “occupy” movements and fall victim to the populist arguments of today, but fail to realize their own celebration of the ultra-rich further distances the classes. While players unionize to find fairness in the absurd revenue generation, the owners are elevated from the lifestyle of their fans by wealth beyond most imaginations. I wonder how many fans realize a player earns more in one season than most fans will earn in a lifetime? So, another meaningless game has come and gone and an afternoon of life was given to further reward those our president is suggesting we despise. Of course, many men will take their sons to football practice to teach them the gladiator like throws, and tackles to hopefully make superstars of them, or more importantly demonstrate their masculinity to their tribal friends. The reward of the annual ritual of millionaire game playing is the small boost to the economy and distraction from woe, but the tragedy is the blind following of the masses being entertained like the citizens of Rome as the empire faces collapse.

Recipe for Success

A Recipe for Success (2/1/2012) At dinner last week my friend Scott shared comments from a seminar he delivered to MBA students about entrepreneurship. His observation from spending time with these millennials was their questions focused on how to be successful; not in generalities but seeking a specific checklist void of risk. Mutually we agreed there is no checklist to succeed, but commonalities exist which create a method to achieve success. Personally I have formulated a recipe, based on experience and believe three essential elements are required: S-E-P, Evolution, and no Plan B. S-E-P is Skills, Education, and Passion. First, Skills are the know-how we develop over time that contribute to our expertise. For example, we all can pound a nail, but a carpenter knows how to build a house. In his book, Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell describes a 10,000 hour requirement for our skills to develop to an expert level. Second, Education is required to differentiate ourselves, but may come from military, college, or teachings of others. Most important, communication, whether written or verbal, is the critical learning requirement. Third, Passion is the ultimate differentiator between success and failure, but is the hardest to explain. Passion will drive one to succeed no matter what obstacles are confronted and passion is what engages us to continue when our energies are exhausted. The second essential element is Evolution. Our lives are about learning from mistakes and this is the evolution I refer to, understanding how to move forward after a perceived failure and use failure as way to unlock opportunities. I argue each failure makes us stronger because they are events, not who we are. For example, when I owned my company many people assumed my most successful software program was the first I developed. To the contrary, I counted there were nearly 14 different programs I had tried to develop and sell. Most business owners evolve to create opportunities and rarely is success found the first time. Lastly, to succeed there must be no “Plan B” because failure cannot be an option. I assert if an easier option exists affording failure then our effort will stop when the most difficult challenges loom. When failure is not an option, our creativity is ignited to try new methods and search for alternatives supporting our passion, in other words evolution occurs. For example, today’s college graduates can choose to move home because finding a job or supporting themselves is deemed impossible. If moving home was not an option these struggling graduates would share cheaper homes, work three jobs, and live on their own. Success cannot be had when one can turn his back on hard work and fear of bankruptcy. There is no checklist for success, but I can assure you without elements of the above achieving success is impossible. Our current economy is tough and it saddens me when I hear about friends and neighbors losing jobs and homes, but at the same time I can identify friends finding success because they will not be victimized by systemic factors and have demonstrated the above elements. No guarantee for success exists, but I assure you practicing and understanding the above will bring reward.

Pragmatic

Pragmatic (01/04/2012) Taking my son to school recently I was listening to an interview on NPR with a spokesperson from Merriam-Webster dictionary. I have always loved the dictionary and can remember scouring the unabridged version when I was in school, searching for words I needed to learn and finding words of which I had never heard. Today, I never pick up a printed dictionary and instead relay on a digital search. Companies like Merriam-Webster benefit because in the digital world the company captures data about users, like the most common search. For 2011 Merriam-Webster reported the most searched word is “pragmatic.” Coincidentally, in conversation the day before the NPR piece I was commenting “I’m a doom and gloomer” when it comes to the economy, currencies, resources, or general outlook. My friend Katie quickly corrected me and said, “I don’t think you’re a doom and gloomer; your pragmatic.” Like many of us looking for the meaning of the word pragmatic I cannot say I gave much thought to it before our economic downturn several years ago. In September 2007, I lost my job and found myself selling unneeded items, downsizing through multiple garage sales, and finally having to leave my friends and children in New Smynra Beach, Florida. I started reading, learning, and understanding government, money, commodities, food chains, and even media interpretation of events. Ultimately, this led to my opportunity to write weekly newspaper columns in several papers and publishing my book, Clearly Ambiguous. Encouraged by personal change I started identifying trends and taking an umpire-like view of the world, “calling it like it is.” Specifically I remember a meeting with a group of realtors in spring 2008, part of a leads group I had formed, and the realtors commenting the housing market would return by the end of the year. I challenged their thoughts, stating it would be five to ten years before real estate made any return to the prior levels. Challenged, I stood my ground sharing statistics, facts, and observations. Recent data by the National Association of Realtors has reiterated the markets have been worse than reported and instead consistent with my assertions. Each week I work hard to share events whether identifying infringements on our liberties, disputing economic optimism, or calling out the idiocy of our leaders’ decision making. My friend has accused me of being negative, another of living on the mountain too long and become radical. I think Katie got it right, I am “pragmatic.” prag•mat•ic (adj \prag-ˈma-tik\) 1: archaic a (1): BUSY (2): OFFICIOUS b: OPINIONATED. 2: relating to matters of fact or practical affairs often to the exclusion of intellectual or artistic matters : practical as opposed to idealistic.

1984, Y2K, 2012...

1984, Y2K, 2012...(12/28/2011) It started last week when I saw my first article referencing a countdown to the winter solstice of 2012 when the Mayan calendar predicts the world will end. I think this is silliness and would be the same as a future archaeologist mining a 21st century landfill and finding a “Snap-On” tools calendar ending 12/31/2011. Speculative archaeologists make conclusions based on limited data and future generations could infer we worshipped scantily clad women and predicted our termination at the end of this year. Cultures have always focused on end-of-time events. I believe a fascination with the opportunity to have a genesis of life provides hope by focusing on doomsday dates . Whether fueled by Nostradamus, lunatics like Harold Camping, a novel written by George Orwell, or the errors of 1960’s computer programmers, Hollywood, the media, and internet pundits focus on predictions to build their own following and create panic. Speculation from movies like The Road, Armageddon, or 2012 feed the appetite of people seeing hope through termination of today’s woes and a clean start in a new world. Predictions of an Orwellian society did not come true in 1984. However, a slow incremental change has occurred and continues to take us closer to that vision nearly every day. Slowly liberties and freedoms are eroding to government sponsored surveillance and restricted speech, travel, and freedoms. Looking back to 1999 we know airplanes did not fall from the sky or satellites crash to earth, and traffic lights and computers continued to operate. However, more than any prophetic event facing our world the hype around Y2K contained a level of validity. Personally, as a software-company owner at the time, I benefitted from failures of my competitors to update products for the year 2000 and conclude a level of failure was avoided through preparation. In 2012 disasters are looming on the horizon which may create the feel of a societal collapse and end life as we know it. At the end of 2011 when we feel the worst of the financial crisis is behind us the world governments have used their ammunition to save the economies but the battle must continue. With no way left to fight Europe will face its biggest financial challenge and could ultimately collapse upon itself. Although China has expanded rapidly growth will halt and credit will freeze due to an American and European consumer hunkered down awaiting the end of the world where iPhones and shopping malls will no longer be important. Western nations will fight to recover outsourced industries, realizing globalism created a Roman Empire like gluttonous lifestyle and they must save themselves through isolationism, thus shutting down third-world development and freezing economic growth. I predict the world will not end December 21, 2012. However, our current malaise will continue to exacerbate and make many wish an epic calamity would cleanse our past mistakes. Careful prudence and pragmatism will guide the successful whereas hardship will enslave many of our friends and neighbors unwilling to change old habits. Ultimately we will look back laughingly at the hyped prophecy of 2012 as we do past predictions. Next up, Hollywood can focus on the impending collision of the Apophis Asteroid on April 13, 2036. Happy New Year!