Welcome 2011 (aka 1984)
Orwell’s 1984 is an unbelievable tale imagined in 1949 focusing on government surveillance and mind control. Since 9/11 Americans have followed the Orwellian path: trading liberty for the perception of safety. Like Sheep, there is no resistance stepping into body scanners, allowing our mothers, daughters, and wives submission to hands of questionable authority, and acceptance of cameras and data mining to predict actions. Our same ruling elite, like the “Inner Party” exempts itself from the rules and regulations put upon “We the People”.
My goal is not to pontificate doom and gloom, but raise awareness and challenge the status quo. I must wonder why a NFL football dominates television ratings when our society is collapsing around us. Much of the change thrust upon us was incrementally small and came slowly after 9/11. However, I believe there has been an acceleration of lost liberties in the last two years. For example: a pilot challenging TSA’s procedures last week had his home raided by Federal Authorities under administrative rules creating a warrantless search; TSA announced further silly rules scrutinizing Thermos bottles; passengers cannot take water through security as it may explode; Wired magazine detailed government collection and scrutiny of credit card and store loyalty card data; Google through StreetView and other data mining practices announced predictive behavioral searches; municipalities are investing in license plate readers to track all traffic in their communities; you cannot enter a store or public place without CCTV recording and forever storing your image; without warrants the NSA is listening to phone and email traffic; purchase of certain over-the-counter drugs requires logging your identity in a government database although no law is broken; Attorney General Eric Holder shared in an interview with Diane Sawyer last week American citizens require surveillance to stop homegrown terror; passage of Net Neutrality was the first step toward an ID requirement to access the web; and Janet Napolitano announced Wal-mart will install televisions nationwide to broadcast the “If you See Something, Say Something” campaign encouraging us to report on others.
I do not have confidence in the government, nor do I trust the government to maintain its integrity. By the government’s admission we need to question those who exercise First Amendment Rights, have certain political bumper stickers, belong to organizations like the NRA, and criticize the United Nations. As 2011 comes upon us I challenge you to watch the weekly announcements of new government “security” programs and ask, “Why?” Big Brother is watching you. – George Orwell.
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Monday, December 27, 2010
Bob Cratchit
My Christmas week column
Without much thought most of us can recite the plot of Dicken’s “A Christmas Carol” and the various scenes of ghostly Jacob Marley torturing the soul of Ebenezer Scrooge. Dicken’s indictment of 19th century capitalism is just as accurate 167 years after publication. Although in denial, most Americans have more in common with the hurting Bob Cratchit and family than the wealthy, out of touch Ebenezer Scrooge this Christmas.
I challenge you to consider how your Christmas four years ago compares to this year and what concerns are facing you, your family, friends, and our country. Christmas 2006 we had never heard of candidate Barak Obama, the national debt was 8.5 trillion versus 14 trillion today, 258 U.S. soldiers had died in Afghanistan versus 1437 total through today, and unemployment was 4.6% compared to the current 9.8% with over 8 million jobs lost in just the last two years. Personally, Christmas 2006 was incredible as my house was “worth” far more than I had paid, and I was a believer in the infinitely upward movement of American economic growth. Two years of unemployment wiped out my entire career’s worth of wealth building. Regardless of your opinion of the financial crisis, our political parties, or presidential administrations this Christmas is different.
Last week at Wal-Mart my wife spoke to a cashier who had her heat fail and was using space heaters to warm her home. With their 3-year old sharing a bed to stay warm she said the house dropped to the same temperature as outdoors, 15oF. I assert most of us are like Bob Cratchit, just surviving to stay warm and struggling to feed our families. The debt crazed, home equity financed Christmas is now the Ghost of Christmas Past. This year the Ghost of Christ Present has brought prudence, fear, and common sense upon America. State employees, teachers, and educated engineers and managers wonder if tomorrow will bring a pink slip or another week of toiling hours just to keep a job, unappreciated by the likes of Scrooge. Bankers however will bask with overgrown golden turkeys, excesses of food and thermostats set at 74 oF unlike 60 oF for the common folk. And what about the third specter? The Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come will more than likely deliver further pain and woe to already hurting families. “When people lose everything and they have nothing to lose, they lose it." - Gerald Celente
My Christmas week column
Without much thought most of us can recite the plot of Dicken’s “A Christmas Carol” and the various scenes of ghostly Jacob Marley torturing the soul of Ebenezer Scrooge. Dicken’s indictment of 19th century capitalism is just as accurate 167 years after publication. Although in denial, most Americans have more in common with the hurting Bob Cratchit and family than the wealthy, out of touch Ebenezer Scrooge this Christmas.
I challenge you to consider how your Christmas four years ago compares to this year and what concerns are facing you, your family, friends, and our country. Christmas 2006 we had never heard of candidate Barak Obama, the national debt was 8.5 trillion versus 14 trillion today, 258 U.S. soldiers had died in Afghanistan versus 1437 total through today, and unemployment was 4.6% compared to the current 9.8% with over 8 million jobs lost in just the last two years. Personally, Christmas 2006 was incredible as my house was “worth” far more than I had paid, and I was a believer in the infinitely upward movement of American economic growth. Two years of unemployment wiped out my entire career’s worth of wealth building. Regardless of your opinion of the financial crisis, our political parties, or presidential administrations this Christmas is different.
Last week at Wal-Mart my wife spoke to a cashier who had her heat fail and was using space heaters to warm her home. With their 3-year old sharing a bed to stay warm she said the house dropped to the same temperature as outdoors, 15oF. I assert most of us are like Bob Cratchit, just surviving to stay warm and struggling to feed our families. The debt crazed, home equity financed Christmas is now the Ghost of Christmas Past. This year the Ghost of Christ Present has brought prudence, fear, and common sense upon America. State employees, teachers, and educated engineers and managers wonder if tomorrow will bring a pink slip or another week of toiling hours just to keep a job, unappreciated by the likes of Scrooge. Bankers however will bask with overgrown golden turkeys, excesses of food and thermostats set at 74 oF unlike 60 oF for the common folk. And what about the third specter? The Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come will more than likely deliver further pain and woe to already hurting families. “When people lose everything and they have nothing to lose, they lose it." - Gerald Celente
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Free Speech
I argue the most important freedom we have under the Constitution is the right to Freedom of Speech. It is interpreted as the right to speak freely without censorship or limitation. As defined in our own First Amendment to the Constitution, “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”
Sadly though, something happened over the last century, accelerating rapidly over the last two decades. I previously wrote freedom of speech must remain free of tests, and the most important speech is one making us uncomfortable, but yet allowed. It is free speech protecting news media, web sites, and our access to information. We take for granted the freedom of the Internet and our assumed rights to read, review, and see any content. Of course, we are aware countries like China and North Korea censor their citizens’ access to web sites and news, especially political discourse contradicting their governments. We assume this will not happen in America, but quite the opposite is true.
Last week Senator Lieberman proudly announced his success pressuring Amazon.com to remove Wikileaks from its servers. Bill O’Reilly called for the execution of Wikileaks’ Julian Assange on his television show and Sarah Palin similarly did the same. The narrow-mindedness of these pundits is more concerning than the actions of Assange. Our willingness to have “hate speech” protections in America caused a young man in Kentucky to find himself sentenced to prison for three years last week after writing a poem titled, “The Sniper,” a concerning poem narrating the assassination of President Obama, but one that should be protected by the First Amendment nonetheless.
Many would argue some speech is bad, but I assert you must accept all speech to truly enjoy freedom of speech. The writings of Thomas Paine and Thomas Jefferson granted our liberties and released us from tyranny. Using today’s standards their writings are treasonous and require “balance” and an investigation by Homeland Security would ensue with both men finding themselves on Domestic Terrorist watch lists; there would be no American Revolution. No matter how uncomfortable, the right to criticize and question our government leaders gave us our freedoms and we must continue to monitor and fight to keep this right to free speech. “Censorship reflects society's lack of confidence in itself. It is a hallmark of an authoritarian regime,” Potter Stewart
I argue the most important freedom we have under the Constitution is the right to Freedom of Speech. It is interpreted as the right to speak freely without censorship or limitation. As defined in our own First Amendment to the Constitution, “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”
Sadly though, something happened over the last century, accelerating rapidly over the last two decades. I previously wrote freedom of speech must remain free of tests, and the most important speech is one making us uncomfortable, but yet allowed. It is free speech protecting news media, web sites, and our access to information. We take for granted the freedom of the Internet and our assumed rights to read, review, and see any content. Of course, we are aware countries like China and North Korea censor their citizens’ access to web sites and news, especially political discourse contradicting their governments. We assume this will not happen in America, but quite the opposite is true.
Last week Senator Lieberman proudly announced his success pressuring Amazon.com to remove Wikileaks from its servers. Bill O’Reilly called for the execution of Wikileaks’ Julian Assange on his television show and Sarah Palin similarly did the same. The narrow-mindedness of these pundits is more concerning than the actions of Assange. Our willingness to have “hate speech” protections in America caused a young man in Kentucky to find himself sentenced to prison for three years last week after writing a poem titled, “The Sniper,” a concerning poem narrating the assassination of President Obama, but one that should be protected by the First Amendment nonetheless.
Many would argue some speech is bad, but I assert you must accept all speech to truly enjoy freedom of speech. The writings of Thomas Paine and Thomas Jefferson granted our liberties and released us from tyranny. Using today’s standards their writings are treasonous and require “balance” and an investigation by Homeland Security would ensue with both men finding themselves on Domestic Terrorist watch lists; there would be no American Revolution. No matter how uncomfortable, the right to criticize and question our government leaders gave us our freedoms and we must continue to monitor and fight to keep this right to free speech. “Censorship reflects society's lack of confidence in itself. It is a hallmark of an authoritarian regime,” Potter Stewart
Wednesday, December 08, 2010
wikisuccess......
I have been stunned by the number of times I have asked friends and family about Wikileaks and their opinion last week and they knew nothing. Although Wikileaks was splashed all over the headlines, sadly it appears Cybermonday is far more important to most Americans. Last week the talk show personalities and government officials were quick to offer their condemnations, calling the actions of Wikileaks treasonous and criminal. Anytime the media, government, and the entire political spectrum agree it is worth considering the contrarian position. Personally, I have a strong contradictory opinion in support of Wikileaks and want to make a case for my opinion.
I have watched Wikileaks evolve over the last several years as a safe haven for whistleblower journalism. Julian Assange is an Australian born hacker who ran a software company and is the public persona of Wikileaks. The catalyst for the web site was capturing internet traffic in China, observations and secret emails by the Chinese government several years ago shared by dissidents who required extreme protection for fear of ultimate retaliation by the Chinese. With the protections of Swedish law regarding anonymity to sources of the Press, secure servers around the world, and safe drop boxes for information Wikileaks became the ultimate whistleblower web site. Not only has the site shared government secrets, but individuals have posted corporate details leading to arrests.
In April 2010, after funding and server problems, Assange splashed Wikileaks across the front pages of the news worldwide with the release of secret documents describing U.S. killings of civilians in Iraq in 2007. In July 2010 Wikileaks released the “Afghan War Diaries” and Assange was instantly condemned by both the press and government for recklessly putting troops in harm’s way through the document release. However, the Afghanistan documents brought to light government cover-ups regarding friendly fire and civilian casualties. At the time, I researched this release wondering about the legality and learned of a similar, earth shattering release of government information made by Daniel Ellsberg in 1971, “The Pentagon Papers.” Ellsberg was vindicated by the Supreme Court ruling the Constitution guarantees anonymity, at least in the area of political discourse.
With the release of last week’s documents, now labeled “cablegate”, Assange has become a permanent thorn to the U.S. government. Both sides of the aisle have called his acts treasonous and are seeking his arrest. He is reviled by many and wanted by Interpol, for consensual sex without a condom in Sweden. I argue the headlines are made to discredit Assange and tarnish his public reputation. Sarah Palin has blasted Assange, Clinton accused him of an ‘attack’ on the world, and Senator Lieberman successfully shutdown servers and related Wikileaks documents in the United States.
The documents show embarrassing corruption in the Afghanistan war, orders to spy on delegates to the United Nations by Secretary Clinton, and accusations of mafia like activities by the Russian government. I believe the documents show the true nature of our government, and governments worldwide, an elitist class of buffoons in charge of public policy using their positions of power to promote personal self interests. We all learn in high school we should live our lives as if our actions are to make front page headlines on the New York Times. In this case, with the release of documents dating back 40 years the true opinions and ineptness of our government officials is now public.
Those against the release of Wikileaks argue the documents will result in the loss of life to secretly placed operatives and erode progress of political negotiations, but no one has died as a result of Wikileaks. Cablegate has shed light on African governments stealing billions for personal gain, negotiations by the U.S. with terrorist nations, and acknowledgment of civilian loss of life in our wars. I am shocked the media is not more supportive of Wikileaks and can only assume the embarrassment of being “scooped” by one outside their ranks, similar to Matt Drudge during the Clinton years, has alienated support.
I argue government must be held to the highest standard, one that operates with ultimate transparency. Without the spotlight of transparency the citizens are subject to corruption, theft of public funds in the treasury, disregard of the law, and in some cases death. Assange promises the next release will reveal details of a large bank institution’s handling of the financial crisis. I believe public opinion and the media anchors will offer applause when Wikileaks offers the same insights inside a private corporation and comments similar to those made by our government leaders inside a board room would make the late night talk show monologues rife with jokes, not condemnation. I want my government held accountable and operating with the highest integrity and moral fortitude, I applaud Assange and his courageousness. History will reflect his actions as critical to the safety of citizens worldwide and changing the way government operates.
As I write this column, Saturday December 4th, 2010, the Wikileaks.org web site I visited multiple times earlier in the week is no longer accessible. Internet purists are working on new technologies to bypass government interventions and maintain ultimate freedom of information on the web. I do not live in China, I do not want censorship, and I do not want the tyranny of a government hiding from its own illegal acts.
I have been stunned by the number of times I have asked friends and family about Wikileaks and their opinion last week and they knew nothing. Although Wikileaks was splashed all over the headlines, sadly it appears Cybermonday is far more important to most Americans. Last week the talk show personalities and government officials were quick to offer their condemnations, calling the actions of Wikileaks treasonous and criminal. Anytime the media, government, and the entire political spectrum agree it is worth considering the contrarian position. Personally, I have a strong contradictory opinion in support of Wikileaks and want to make a case for my opinion.
I have watched Wikileaks evolve over the last several years as a safe haven for whistleblower journalism. Julian Assange is an Australian born hacker who ran a software company and is the public persona of Wikileaks. The catalyst for the web site was capturing internet traffic in China, observations and secret emails by the Chinese government several years ago shared by dissidents who required extreme protection for fear of ultimate retaliation by the Chinese. With the protections of Swedish law regarding anonymity to sources of the Press, secure servers around the world, and safe drop boxes for information Wikileaks became the ultimate whistleblower web site. Not only has the site shared government secrets, but individuals have posted corporate details leading to arrests.
In April 2010, after funding and server problems, Assange splashed Wikileaks across the front pages of the news worldwide with the release of secret documents describing U.S. killings of civilians in Iraq in 2007. In July 2010 Wikileaks released the “Afghan War Diaries” and Assange was instantly condemned by both the press and government for recklessly putting troops in harm’s way through the document release. However, the Afghanistan documents brought to light government cover-ups regarding friendly fire and civilian casualties. At the time, I researched this release wondering about the legality and learned of a similar, earth shattering release of government information made by Daniel Ellsberg in 1971, “The Pentagon Papers.” Ellsberg was vindicated by the Supreme Court ruling the Constitution guarantees anonymity, at least in the area of political discourse.
With the release of last week’s documents, now labeled “cablegate”, Assange has become a permanent thorn to the U.S. government. Both sides of the aisle have called his acts treasonous and are seeking his arrest. He is reviled by many and wanted by Interpol, for consensual sex without a condom in Sweden. I argue the headlines are made to discredit Assange and tarnish his public reputation. Sarah Palin has blasted Assange, Clinton accused him of an ‘attack’ on the world, and Senator Lieberman successfully shutdown servers and related Wikileaks documents in the United States.
The documents show embarrassing corruption in the Afghanistan war, orders to spy on delegates to the United Nations by Secretary Clinton, and accusations of mafia like activities by the Russian government. I believe the documents show the true nature of our government, and governments worldwide, an elitist class of buffoons in charge of public policy using their positions of power to promote personal self interests. We all learn in high school we should live our lives as if our actions are to make front page headlines on the New York Times. In this case, with the release of documents dating back 40 years the true opinions and ineptness of our government officials is now public.
Those against the release of Wikileaks argue the documents will result in the loss of life to secretly placed operatives and erode progress of political negotiations, but no one has died as a result of Wikileaks. Cablegate has shed light on African governments stealing billions for personal gain, negotiations by the U.S. with terrorist nations, and acknowledgment of civilian loss of life in our wars. I am shocked the media is not more supportive of Wikileaks and can only assume the embarrassment of being “scooped” by one outside their ranks, similar to Matt Drudge during the Clinton years, has alienated support.
I argue government must be held to the highest standard, one that operates with ultimate transparency. Without the spotlight of transparency the citizens are subject to corruption, theft of public funds in the treasury, disregard of the law, and in some cases death. Assange promises the next release will reveal details of a large bank institution’s handling of the financial crisis. I believe public opinion and the media anchors will offer applause when Wikileaks offers the same insights inside a private corporation and comments similar to those made by our government leaders inside a board room would make the late night talk show monologues rife with jokes, not condemnation. I want my government held accountable and operating with the highest integrity and moral fortitude, I applaud Assange and his courageousness. History will reflect his actions as critical to the safety of citizens worldwide and changing the way government operates.
As I write this column, Saturday December 4th, 2010, the Wikileaks.org web site I visited multiple times earlier in the week is no longer accessible. Internet purists are working on new technologies to bypass government interventions and maintain ultimate freedom of information on the web. I do not live in China, I do not want censorship, and I do not want the tyranny of a government hiding from its own illegal acts.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Ants and Grasshoppers
I dictated this column ten days ago when the TSA backlash was first starting. Since 9/11 I have been questioning the policies of George Bush and the creation of the Department of Homeland Security. In October 2002 I had a letter published in the News-Journal predicting new airport security measures were similar to Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. Removing shoes came next, I tried to resist but after being placed on the “TSA Watch List” and threatened by TSA I ultimately acquiesced and felt alone trying to stop this intrusion. TSA demonstrated its stupidity with its policy on liquids, watching me drink a bottle of Dasani water, clear and pure; requiring its disposal because it will explode.
Several weeks ago I saw a Tampa television station dutifully reporting about a multi-jurisdictional task force at the Greyhound bus station where FHP, TSA, and Border police were checking papers and searching passengers. The week before an Atlanta television station likewise reported about a comparable task force stopping trucks inbound on I-20 to pass through full size X-ray machines, check papers, and be searched. Sadly, Americans willfully reported they were glad to experience the inconvenience and felt safer, and no one seemed to question the right of the government or the warrantless search performed in direct contradiction to the Constitution, “The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.”
This issue has moved beyond the requirement for airline security. Bush’s moves after 9/11, in the name of fighting terrorism, stole freedoms from Americans, undoing over 225 years of liberty: the Patriot Act created unprecedented warrantless spying, Homeland Security employees over 200,000 with a budget of $52 billion, and the relatively unknown support of the Courts to establish “Constitution Free Zones”. While you watch your elderly mother, wife, or teenage daughter undergo an intrusive, pat-down search, ask yourself by what authority has the government asserted this right.
The current fight is about the Ant and the Grasshopper, and the general failure of Americans to understand their Constitutional rights. We, the ants, are trying to resist the government grasshopper. If we succeed, we undo years of authoritarian success by the grasshopper.
I dictated this column ten days ago when the TSA backlash was first starting. Since 9/11 I have been questioning the policies of George Bush and the creation of the Department of Homeland Security. In October 2002 I had a letter published in the News-Journal predicting new airport security measures were similar to Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. Removing shoes came next, I tried to resist but after being placed on the “TSA Watch List” and threatened by TSA I ultimately acquiesced and felt alone trying to stop this intrusion. TSA demonstrated its stupidity with its policy on liquids, watching me drink a bottle of Dasani water, clear and pure; requiring its disposal because it will explode.
Several weeks ago I saw a Tampa television station dutifully reporting about a multi-jurisdictional task force at the Greyhound bus station where FHP, TSA, and Border police were checking papers and searching passengers. The week before an Atlanta television station likewise reported about a comparable task force stopping trucks inbound on I-20 to pass through full size X-ray machines, check papers, and be searched. Sadly, Americans willfully reported they were glad to experience the inconvenience and felt safer, and no one seemed to question the right of the government or the warrantless search performed in direct contradiction to the Constitution, “The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.”
This issue has moved beyond the requirement for airline security. Bush’s moves after 9/11, in the name of fighting terrorism, stole freedoms from Americans, undoing over 225 years of liberty: the Patriot Act created unprecedented warrantless spying, Homeland Security employees over 200,000 with a budget of $52 billion, and the relatively unknown support of the Courts to establish “Constitution Free Zones”. While you watch your elderly mother, wife, or teenage daughter undergo an intrusive, pat-down search, ask yourself by what authority has the government asserted this right.
The current fight is about the Ant and the Grasshopper, and the general failure of Americans to understand their Constitutional rights. We, the ants, are trying to resist the government grasshopper. If we succeed, we undo years of authoritarian success by the grasshopper.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
The Twilight Zone
My buddy Noel and I were talking this week about the rising cost of fuel, unemployment, President Obama’s actions in Asia, rising gold prices, crashing housing prices, and “Dancing with the Stars”. I said it felt like we were in the “The Twilight Zone”. You see, Noel and I are the same age as each other, born in 1967. I commented that we grew up with Gene Cernan hitting golf balls on the moon and promises of us living there someday. We were influenced by TV re-runs like “The Brady Bunch”, “Leave it to Beaver”, and “Andy Griffith”. The 1970’s had the gas crunch, Nixon going to China, the Bicentennial, Jimmy Carter, and the Iranian Hostage crisis. As we entered high school Reagan protected us from the Soviets, and the Big 3 auto companies saved themselves from the Japanese. In college Bush 1 continued the legacy of Reagan and we graduated to a healthy job market. Clinton first scared us with Hillarycare and reinvented himself to ultimately steer a healthy economy where everyone talked dotcoms, and knew Peter Lynch’s name; investment returns less than 15% were despised. Even as we partied like it was 1999, life remained good, our careers flourished, and although terrorism was new to our shores, we all jumped on the real estate rocket ship.
Today I feel like a character in the Twilight Zone: I lost my job, like Donald Trump sold real estate at a loss, shed assets like “The Biggest Loser”, have watched two elections with dismay wondering how some get reelected and others lost, and been puzzled by the bank mess and healthcare. On television gay characters perpetuate, obesity delights, and sitcom dialogue offends. I used to love air travel, but George Bush created a Gestapo security force requiring me to show papers, remove my shoes, and in the latest round choose radiation or molestation to board a plane. My president claims Islam was the light of the world, but yet the followers of this political radicalism have killed over 3,100 Americans in the last decade, many on our own soil. America manufactures nothing, we regurgitate services, and our economy is fueled by debt and consumption; there are no jobs and it will take 20 years to recover the 8 million lost over the last three years. Last week the central bank announced it will print money until our economy is fixed, another crazy scheme parallel to the Fed’s efforts of the Great Depression. My only explanation is we are waiting for Rod Serling to step from behind a tree saying, “That’s the signpost up ahead – your next stop, The Twilight Zone!”
My buddy Noel and I were talking this week about the rising cost of fuel, unemployment, President Obama’s actions in Asia, rising gold prices, crashing housing prices, and “Dancing with the Stars”. I said it felt like we were in the “The Twilight Zone”. You see, Noel and I are the same age as each other, born in 1967. I commented that we grew up with Gene Cernan hitting golf balls on the moon and promises of us living there someday. We were influenced by TV re-runs like “The Brady Bunch”, “Leave it to Beaver”, and “Andy Griffith”. The 1970’s had the gas crunch, Nixon going to China, the Bicentennial, Jimmy Carter, and the Iranian Hostage crisis. As we entered high school Reagan protected us from the Soviets, and the Big 3 auto companies saved themselves from the Japanese. In college Bush 1 continued the legacy of Reagan and we graduated to a healthy job market. Clinton first scared us with Hillarycare and reinvented himself to ultimately steer a healthy economy where everyone talked dotcoms, and knew Peter Lynch’s name; investment returns less than 15% were despised. Even as we partied like it was 1999, life remained good, our careers flourished, and although terrorism was new to our shores, we all jumped on the real estate rocket ship.
Today I feel like a character in the Twilight Zone: I lost my job, like Donald Trump sold real estate at a loss, shed assets like “The Biggest Loser”, have watched two elections with dismay wondering how some get reelected and others lost, and been puzzled by the bank mess and healthcare. On television gay characters perpetuate, obesity delights, and sitcom dialogue offends. I used to love air travel, but George Bush created a Gestapo security force requiring me to show papers, remove my shoes, and in the latest round choose radiation or molestation to board a plane. My president claims Islam was the light of the world, but yet the followers of this political radicalism have killed over 3,100 Americans in the last decade, many on our own soil. America manufactures nothing, we regurgitate services, and our economy is fueled by debt and consumption; there are no jobs and it will take 20 years to recover the 8 million lost over the last three years. Last week the central bank announced it will print money until our economy is fixed, another crazy scheme parallel to the Fed’s efforts of the Great Depression. My only explanation is we are waiting for Rod Serling to step from behind a tree saying, “That’s the signpost up ahead – your next stop, The Twilight Zone!”
Saturday, November 13, 2010
What Happened Last Week
Last week there was a lot more happening in America than reported. Of course everyone is aware of the change of power in the House of Representatives, and most people know Reid, Frank, Boxer, and Pelosi were re-elected. The political sage purported their own theories as to what happened, but last week was easy to explain: while the masses slept the informed went to the polls and voted. Throughout the constant barrage of political analyses there was one shift in the majority reported rarely; 19 state legislatures changed from Democrat to Republican majorities. The impact at the state level is the passage of conservative agendas, aligned with the will of the people: state influenced immigration controls, no gay marriage, gun rights will stop eroding, and we can expect more fiscal control of budgets.
In addition to the electorate changes, the twelve members of the Fed Open Market Committee, private banking individuals not elected by the people, forever changed our future. Although called “Federal Reserve” the “Fed” is as federal as “Federal Express”. The group of private bankers promised to purchase $600 billion of government bonds because our debt, traditionally the stalwart of confidence to the world, has no other buyers. America will look like the 1970s, interest rates will drop further, past the already historically low rates making home and car purchases cheaper, if you can qualify for a loan or have a job, but increased prices are inevitable. By monetizing our debt, our currency was devalued and therefore it will take more dollars to buy exports. Although it sounds complicated, in the coming months the cost of everything made in China will rise, our foreign food supply will rise in cost, and OPEC will want more dollars for a barrel of crude. Gasoline should easily reach $3.40/gallon by April as OPEC is demanding a minimum $100/barrel.
What happened last week was historical, America moved politically in a direction not seen since Reconstruction (1865), recognizing the failed policies of an out of control majority. Similarly, Europe has done the same, moving Right to fight Unions, pensions for life, and nanny-state mentality. What happened last week when the Fed announced quantitative easing will also change our lives. We the People will pay today and well into the future for printing money. As we were taught in school, the Fed needs inflation to grow the economy, but inflation is really a hidden tax on us, the people.
Last week there was a lot more happening in America than reported. Of course everyone is aware of the change of power in the House of Representatives, and most people know Reid, Frank, Boxer, and Pelosi were re-elected. The political sage purported their own theories as to what happened, but last week was easy to explain: while the masses slept the informed went to the polls and voted. Throughout the constant barrage of political analyses there was one shift in the majority reported rarely; 19 state legislatures changed from Democrat to Republican majorities. The impact at the state level is the passage of conservative agendas, aligned with the will of the people: state influenced immigration controls, no gay marriage, gun rights will stop eroding, and we can expect more fiscal control of budgets.
In addition to the electorate changes, the twelve members of the Fed Open Market Committee, private banking individuals not elected by the people, forever changed our future. Although called “Federal Reserve” the “Fed” is as federal as “Federal Express”. The group of private bankers promised to purchase $600 billion of government bonds because our debt, traditionally the stalwart of confidence to the world, has no other buyers. America will look like the 1970s, interest rates will drop further, past the already historically low rates making home and car purchases cheaper, if you can qualify for a loan or have a job, but increased prices are inevitable. By monetizing our debt, our currency was devalued and therefore it will take more dollars to buy exports. Although it sounds complicated, in the coming months the cost of everything made in China will rise, our foreign food supply will rise in cost, and OPEC will want more dollars for a barrel of crude. Gasoline should easily reach $3.40/gallon by April as OPEC is demanding a minimum $100/barrel.
What happened last week was historical, America moved politically in a direction not seen since Reconstruction (1865), recognizing the failed policies of an out of control majority. Similarly, Europe has done the same, moving Right to fight Unions, pensions for life, and nanny-state mentality. What happened last week when the Fed announced quantitative easing will also change our lives. We the People will pay today and well into the future for printing money. As we were taught in school, the Fed needs inflation to grow the economy, but inflation is really a hidden tax on us, the people.
Due to Deadlines
Due to deadlines, I write this column on Saturday mornings prior to publication date and therefore it is difficult to deliver a timely column, tied directly to headlines. For instance, I wrote this five days ago, but with confidence I predicted there was a significant shift in Congress yesterday. I did not predict numbers, but predicted the headlines and commentary from the media; today you are hearing the American people “did not understand” President Obama’s vision, or they were “angry” over the economy. I argue yesterday was much simpler and there is no need to overanalyze what happened.
Yesterday’s outcome was about values and politicians selling out their integrity. The methods used during the health care debate showed a majority party willing to use thuggery to win an agenda. Intimidation by the Speaker, failing to hold town hall meetings and closed-door debates demonstrated Chicago-style politics used nationwide, contradictory to promises of transparency. Sadly, an examination of our local Representative Kosmas’ record shows a pass given on the first vote and then a “yes” vote in round two, against the will of her constituents; a good woman sent to Washington and if she had maintained her integrity against the machine she would be returning.
With two years of legislation, failed economic policies, teleprompter speeches, extravagant travel, and excessive golf yesterday became a mandate for real “change and hope”. What voters moved on was spending, an out of control congress, and failed fiscal policies. Since the last election unemployment increased, the Federal deficit increased, social security spent deficit funds, total debt increased trillions, the social agenda moved decidedly left while most Americans remain center-right, and personal freedoms were reduced.
Nearly two years ago Hillary Clinton presented Russian President Putin with a button, “Reset”. Yesterday voters yesterday sent the same message to Washington and the new Republican Congress has an opportunity to echo the successes of 1994; saving America and possibly saving a President. Without the Democrat puppeteer as Speaker, Congress will find themselves free of the shackles of desperate politics and instead controlling their destiny. Congress can move quickly to save America: maintain the 2001 Bush Tax cuts, repeal healthcare, legislate spending limits as a percent of GDP, require a balanced budget, and stop the tomfoolery of passing new legislation so prevalent during the last two years. If nothing else, regardless of your political alignment, at lease the negative ads have stopped!
Due to deadlines, I write this column on Saturday mornings prior to publication date and therefore it is difficult to deliver a timely column, tied directly to headlines. For instance, I wrote this five days ago, but with confidence I predicted there was a significant shift in Congress yesterday. I did not predict numbers, but predicted the headlines and commentary from the media; today you are hearing the American people “did not understand” President Obama’s vision, or they were “angry” over the economy. I argue yesterday was much simpler and there is no need to overanalyze what happened.
Yesterday’s outcome was about values and politicians selling out their integrity. The methods used during the health care debate showed a majority party willing to use thuggery to win an agenda. Intimidation by the Speaker, failing to hold town hall meetings and closed-door debates demonstrated Chicago-style politics used nationwide, contradictory to promises of transparency. Sadly, an examination of our local Representative Kosmas’ record shows a pass given on the first vote and then a “yes” vote in round two, against the will of her constituents; a good woman sent to Washington and if she had maintained her integrity against the machine she would be returning.
With two years of legislation, failed economic policies, teleprompter speeches, extravagant travel, and excessive golf yesterday became a mandate for real “change and hope”. What voters moved on was spending, an out of control congress, and failed fiscal policies. Since the last election unemployment increased, the Federal deficit increased, social security spent deficit funds, total debt increased trillions, the social agenda moved decidedly left while most Americans remain center-right, and personal freedoms were reduced.
Nearly two years ago Hillary Clinton presented Russian President Putin with a button, “Reset”. Yesterday voters yesterday sent the same message to Washington and the new Republican Congress has an opportunity to echo the successes of 1994; saving America and possibly saving a President. Without the Democrat puppeteer as Speaker, Congress will find themselves free of the shackles of desperate politics and instead controlling their destiny. Congress can move quickly to save America: maintain the 2001 Bush Tax cuts, repeal healthcare, legislate spending limits as a percent of GDP, require a balanced budget, and stop the tomfoolery of passing new legislation so prevalent during the last two years. If nothing else, regardless of your political alignment, at lease the negative ads have stopped!
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
ELECTION SEASON - Part V
Most American voters are stupid, but you are different because you are reading this column, this page, and this paper. Unfortunately, everyone else seems to wait for someone to tell them what to do and how to vote, whether it’s by the constant barrage of political attack ads or the non-stop voices of Hannity, Limbaugh, Olbermann, and Maddow. With next Tuesday’s election rapidly approaching I assert the average person walking into the polling place knows nothing more about the candidates or the issues than they have seen on television.
My bold statement about stupidity comes from a personal reminder about the “real world” over the Biketoberfest weekend. Many find it surprising, but I do not have televisions; specifically I do not subscribe to cable or have an antenna to receive local stations. Curious about next week’s ballot I have sought out the proposed amendments and read through the legalese and worked to understand the issues. Regarding candidates I have diligently researched with disregard to party lines, and especially worked to understand judges, commissioners, and other non-affiliated nominees. Over the last four weeks I have worked to educate you regarding labels, parties, and local politics.
I believe the last election had one of the highest voter turnouts ever among young people minorities; captivated by a polished, elegant, intellectual man from Illinois. These same people then checked other boxes on their ballots, radically changing the political landscape. A friend of mine said, “you should not be allowed to vote unless you have skin in the game.” Although somewhat arrogant, the point drives home the fact that our free country allows freedom at the ballot box, even when the voter has no knowledge of the candidates or the issues.
In the final days leading to the election survey results will be reported as truth regarding how your friends and neighbors are thinking. Attack ads, and misleading advertising campaigns will be delivered at a furious pace. No matter what your party alignment and general feelings, I challenge you to find a sample ballot, study the names and prepare yourself to vote. You must take time to read the complicated proposed amendments as they will directly impact you for years to come. Remember two things: our government does not belong to Republicans and Democrats, but “We the People,” and millions of Americans have died for your right to vote next week, don’t waste it.
Most American voters are stupid, but you are different because you are reading this column, this page, and this paper. Unfortunately, everyone else seems to wait for someone to tell them what to do and how to vote, whether it’s by the constant barrage of political attack ads or the non-stop voices of Hannity, Limbaugh, Olbermann, and Maddow. With next Tuesday’s election rapidly approaching I assert the average person walking into the polling place knows nothing more about the candidates or the issues than they have seen on television.
My bold statement about stupidity comes from a personal reminder about the “real world” over the Biketoberfest weekend. Many find it surprising, but I do not have televisions; specifically I do not subscribe to cable or have an antenna to receive local stations. Curious about next week’s ballot I have sought out the proposed amendments and read through the legalese and worked to understand the issues. Regarding candidates I have diligently researched with disregard to party lines, and especially worked to understand judges, commissioners, and other non-affiliated nominees. Over the last four weeks I have worked to educate you regarding labels, parties, and local politics.
I believe the last election had one of the highest voter turnouts ever among young people minorities; captivated by a polished, elegant, intellectual man from Illinois. These same people then checked other boxes on their ballots, radically changing the political landscape. A friend of mine said, “you should not be allowed to vote unless you have skin in the game.” Although somewhat arrogant, the point drives home the fact that our free country allows freedom at the ballot box, even when the voter has no knowledge of the candidates or the issues.
In the final days leading to the election survey results will be reported as truth regarding how your friends and neighbors are thinking. Attack ads, and misleading advertising campaigns will be delivered at a furious pace. No matter what your party alignment and general feelings, I challenge you to find a sample ballot, study the names and prepare yourself to vote. You must take time to read the complicated proposed amendments as they will directly impact you for years to come. Remember two things: our government does not belong to Republicans and Democrats, but “We the People,” and millions of Americans have died for your right to vote next week, don’t waste it.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Election Season – Part IV
Over the last three weeks I have tried to address basic political issues regarding the platforms of the two major parties and the labels applied to describe agendas. With a major election less than two weeks away it is important to understand how the political system works. I feel the 2008 election is an excellent example of our constitutional right to vote where the casual voters caused a “mandate by the American people,” now about to be overturned in another mandate this fall after watching vote selling, favoritism, and power abuse by the majority.
Unfortunately, media attention typically centers on national politics, many people unable to name the President, fewer able to name the Vice President, Speaker of the House, or Senate Majority Leader. These people drive the national agenda and play a significant role in our lives. For instance, national healthcare has been passed and Congress has eliminated incandescent light bulbs; decisions driven on the national level. I argue our state, county, and city elections take as much priority as the national elections though, but too many people scoff at these politics.
Unnoticed, the School Board influences local property tax values and potentially sales tax rates. With our school district, county, and cities in financial dire straits it is critical we understand our local candidates and their fiscal policies because two approaches exist to balancing budgets: cutting expenses or increasing tax revenues. At all local levels of government the millage rate can increase; an easier decision than cutting services, salaries, and pensions. Our local politicians can increase taxes with a vote of four out of seven members, thus just one person can create thousands of dollars in increased annual expenses for your family.
Even Volusia County’s Elections Supervisor found herself at the center of national attention during the Gore-Bush Presidential election of 2000 when voting recounts became critical, certifying election results under the scrutiny of the national media. Few of us realize the members of the Canvassing Board came from our locally elected judges, ultimately deciding the Presidential Election. Proposed amendments are more important as they will ultimately impact policy, tax rates, and budgets for years to come. Proposals like Amendment 4, Hometown Democracy, have the potential to destroy the normal legislative process, relying instead on the populace to make ill-informed decisions argued at the ballot. I urge you to study and learn about your ballot before November 2nd.
Over the last three weeks I have tried to address basic political issues regarding the platforms of the two major parties and the labels applied to describe agendas. With a major election less than two weeks away it is important to understand how the political system works. I feel the 2008 election is an excellent example of our constitutional right to vote where the casual voters caused a “mandate by the American people,” now about to be overturned in another mandate this fall after watching vote selling, favoritism, and power abuse by the majority.
Unfortunately, media attention typically centers on national politics, many people unable to name the President, fewer able to name the Vice President, Speaker of the House, or Senate Majority Leader. These people drive the national agenda and play a significant role in our lives. For instance, national healthcare has been passed and Congress has eliminated incandescent light bulbs; decisions driven on the national level. I argue our state, county, and city elections take as much priority as the national elections though, but too many people scoff at these politics.
Unnoticed, the School Board influences local property tax values and potentially sales tax rates. With our school district, county, and cities in financial dire straits it is critical we understand our local candidates and their fiscal policies because two approaches exist to balancing budgets: cutting expenses or increasing tax revenues. At all local levels of government the millage rate can increase; an easier decision than cutting services, salaries, and pensions. Our local politicians can increase taxes with a vote of four out of seven members, thus just one person can create thousands of dollars in increased annual expenses for your family.
Even Volusia County’s Elections Supervisor found herself at the center of national attention during the Gore-Bush Presidential election of 2000 when voting recounts became critical, certifying election results under the scrutiny of the national media. Few of us realize the members of the Canvassing Board came from our locally elected judges, ultimately deciding the Presidential Election. Proposed amendments are more important as they will ultimately impact policy, tax rates, and budgets for years to come. Proposals like Amendment 4, Hometown Democracy, have the potential to destroy the normal legislative process, relying instead on the populace to make ill-informed decisions argued at the ballot. I urge you to study and learn about your ballot before November 2nd.
Friday, October 15, 2010
Election Season – Part III
In last week’s column I worked to explore the definitions of the labels so quickly applied to describe various political views: liberal, conservative, and libertarian. Talk radio pundits regularly throw labels around with the intent of degrading the reputation of someone merely by association. This week I want to examine the platforms of the two major parties and the rising Tea Party movement. I believe many people hear the labels and the names of the parties, but do not understand the history, or more importantly the platform. Today candidates are changing, or leaving parties, like grabbing flip-flops for the beach so I must wonder how important are the parties?
Liberalism is the renowned platform of the Democrats, essentially incorporating Progressivism to drive a humanitarian agenda based on intellectual theory and conjecture. The last 80 years have used Keynesian economics to justify government programs as the solution to capitalistic shortfalls. Thus, the Democrats are seen as a champion of the lower class, providing social protections. Democrats evolved from anti-federalist factions in the 1790’s and today represent the single largest political party in the world. The Party once favored states rights and strict adherence to the constitution. Today the Party favors liberalism, social not classical, and has embraced Clinton’s “Third Way” , believing government should play a role in alleviating poverty and social injustice and use a system of progressive taxation to implement policy.
Conservatism is used to describe Republicans, having evolved from Classic Liberalism, originally focusing on individual rights and civil liberties. This pre-1930’s attitude drives a platform allowing the individual to excel but forcing him to deal with the consequences of his own decisions. The Republican Party was founded in 1854 by anti-slavery activists and saw Abraham Lincoln as its first president. By the 1890’s the Party was known for protecting business, primarily through tariffs, the gold standard, and high wages. The Party also opposed the League of Nations. Today, Republicans are defined by social-conservatism, supply-side economics, support for gun ownership, and deregulatory policies.
The newly formed Tea Party is a populist movement in response to Congressional Bills passed in 2009. The Tea Party’s platform is focused on ensuring the constitutionality of every law, fiscal responsibility, limiting federal spending, reducing earmarks and reducing taxes. Although new, the Tea Party has demonstrated its ability to put forth viable, electable candidates and has forced the two traditional parties to defend their positions in political debate.
In last week’s column I worked to explore the definitions of the labels so quickly applied to describe various political views: liberal, conservative, and libertarian. Talk radio pundits regularly throw labels around with the intent of degrading the reputation of someone merely by association. This week I want to examine the platforms of the two major parties and the rising Tea Party movement. I believe many people hear the labels and the names of the parties, but do not understand the history, or more importantly the platform. Today candidates are changing, or leaving parties, like grabbing flip-flops for the beach so I must wonder how important are the parties?
Liberalism is the renowned platform of the Democrats, essentially incorporating Progressivism to drive a humanitarian agenda based on intellectual theory and conjecture. The last 80 years have used Keynesian economics to justify government programs as the solution to capitalistic shortfalls. Thus, the Democrats are seen as a champion of the lower class, providing social protections. Democrats evolved from anti-federalist factions in the 1790’s and today represent the single largest political party in the world. The Party once favored states rights and strict adherence to the constitution. Today the Party favors liberalism, social not classical, and has embraced Clinton’s “Third Way” , believing government should play a role in alleviating poverty and social injustice and use a system of progressive taxation to implement policy.
Conservatism is used to describe Republicans, having evolved from Classic Liberalism, originally focusing on individual rights and civil liberties. This pre-1930’s attitude drives a platform allowing the individual to excel but forcing him to deal with the consequences of his own decisions. The Republican Party was founded in 1854 by anti-slavery activists and saw Abraham Lincoln as its first president. By the 1890’s the Party was known for protecting business, primarily through tariffs, the gold standard, and high wages. The Party also opposed the League of Nations. Today, Republicans are defined by social-conservatism, supply-side economics, support for gun ownership, and deregulatory policies.
The newly formed Tea Party is a populist movement in response to Congressional Bills passed in 2009. The Tea Party’s platform is focused on ensuring the constitutionality of every law, fiscal responsibility, limiting federal spending, reducing earmarks and reducing taxes. Although new, the Tea Party has demonstrated its ability to put forth viable, electable candidates and has forced the two traditional parties to defend their positions in political debate.
Election Season – Part II
Last week I challenged the reader to consider what path our country should take for the short term issues and for the long-term future we give to our children. Thomas Jefferson asserted those who govern us should be governed by the same laws and not become corrupt. In this week’s preparation for Election Day I want to explore commonly used terms: liberal, conservative, and libertarian. Next week I will explore the platforms of the three parties, history, and my predictions. Labels are thrown around to negatively portray a thought process by the other side. Democrats are “liberals”, Republicans are “conservatives”, and Glenn Beck famously accuses both being “progressives”. I must wonder where the truth lies and what each means.
Classic liberalism was at the root of the American Revolution, justifying the overthrow of tyrannical governments by focusing on individual liberty and civil rights. The philosophies of John Maynard Keynes in response to the depression created modern liberalism; arguing that in hard times free markets were not ideal and investment and intervention by the state was required. Liberalism has changed over time and across cultures since the 17th century, but at its root is a commitment to understanding humanity and society with a great degree of intellectual work to justify and validate the theories.
Conservatism is most likely the most incorrectly applied label, and should be defined as seeking to preserve traditional institutions and maintain gradual changes in society. Unlike liberalism, conservatism was not spawned by intellectual goals and improvements, but came from preservation, emphasizing stability and continuity. The modern application comes from the split in views in the 1930s and Keynesian economics. Libertarianism more closely represents today’s incorrect definition of conservatism; the view that each person has the right to live his life freely, but respecting the equal rights of others. Libertarians believe all actions should be voluntary, with only the most basic tenets of life forbidden by law.
The term “progressive” was coined at the start of the 20th century and focused on driving an agenda of change. Correctly, progressivism and conservatism are antonyms of each other. In our modern political environment we have three philosophies: modern liberalism, classic liberalism, and libertarianism where the rate of change is defined by terms progressivism and conservatism. Carefully consider what you claim to be and where your views lie, more carefully consider the labels you apply to others.
Last week I challenged the reader to consider what path our country should take for the short term issues and for the long-term future we give to our children. Thomas Jefferson asserted those who govern us should be governed by the same laws and not become corrupt. In this week’s preparation for Election Day I want to explore commonly used terms: liberal, conservative, and libertarian. Next week I will explore the platforms of the three parties, history, and my predictions. Labels are thrown around to negatively portray a thought process by the other side. Democrats are “liberals”, Republicans are “conservatives”, and Glenn Beck famously accuses both being “progressives”. I must wonder where the truth lies and what each means.
Classic liberalism was at the root of the American Revolution, justifying the overthrow of tyrannical governments by focusing on individual liberty and civil rights. The philosophies of John Maynard Keynes in response to the depression created modern liberalism; arguing that in hard times free markets were not ideal and investment and intervention by the state was required. Liberalism has changed over time and across cultures since the 17th century, but at its root is a commitment to understanding humanity and society with a great degree of intellectual work to justify and validate the theories.
Conservatism is most likely the most incorrectly applied label, and should be defined as seeking to preserve traditional institutions and maintain gradual changes in society. Unlike liberalism, conservatism was not spawned by intellectual goals and improvements, but came from preservation, emphasizing stability and continuity. The modern application comes from the split in views in the 1930s and Keynesian economics. Libertarianism more closely represents today’s incorrect definition of conservatism; the view that each person has the right to live his life freely, but respecting the equal rights of others. Libertarians believe all actions should be voluntary, with only the most basic tenets of life forbidden by law.
The term “progressive” was coined at the start of the 20th century and focused on driving an agenda of change. Correctly, progressivism and conservatism are antonyms of each other. In our modern political environment we have three philosophies: modern liberalism, classic liberalism, and libertarianism where the rate of change is defined by terms progressivism and conservatism. Carefully consider what you claim to be and where your views lie, more carefully consider the labels you apply to others.
Election Season – Part I
This is the first of a series I am writing in anticipation of the upcoming elections in November. Last week I commented the American people, the sleeping dogs, have been awakened. Many put their confidence in the poetry of “Change and Hope”, but the prose delivered has fallen short of their romanticized expectations. Leadership and management are learned skills, not certainties due to position, advisors, charisma, or teleprompters. Blame on both parties, the elites, and the constituencie has been tossed about. Regardless of where blame falls, our country is in trouble.
In a recent discussion with my friend Monil, he brought to my attention a writing of Thomas Jefferson to Edmund Pendleton on August 26, 1776 where he wrote, “So much for the wisdom of the Senate. To make them independent, I had proposed that they should hold their places for nine years, and then go out (one third every three years) and be incapable forever of being re-elected to that house. My idea was that if they might be re-elected, they would be casting their eyes forward to the period of election (however distant) and be currying favor with the electors, and consequently dependent on them. My reason for fixing them in office for a term of years rather than for life, was that they might have an idea that they were at a certain period to return into the mass of the people and become the governed instead of the governors which might still keep alive that regard to the public good that otherwise they might perhaps be induced by their independence to forget.”
Today our politicians see themselves as elites sent to Washington for life, to live off our efforts. Our two party system has ironically become a spectacle of like-minded aristocrats benefitting from larger government, more laws, and dependent constituencies. Political life at the Federal level is about personal benefit, not public service. As the election season comes upon us this year, our votes are about both our short-term future and the long-term vision for America, the future we will give our children. We watched the giddiness of a single majority manipulate parliamentary rules, object to debate, lash out at voters, run from town hall meetings, and fundamentally change our country. Whether change was best, you must decide and I challenge you to engage in the electoral process.
This is the first of a series I am writing in anticipation of the upcoming elections in November. Last week I commented the American people, the sleeping dogs, have been awakened. Many put their confidence in the poetry of “Change and Hope”, but the prose delivered has fallen short of their romanticized expectations. Leadership and management are learned skills, not certainties due to position, advisors, charisma, or teleprompters. Blame on both parties, the elites, and the constituencie has been tossed about. Regardless of where blame falls, our country is in trouble.
In a recent discussion with my friend Monil, he brought to my attention a writing of Thomas Jefferson to Edmund Pendleton on August 26, 1776 where he wrote, “So much for the wisdom of the Senate. To make them independent, I had proposed that they should hold their places for nine years, and then go out (one third every three years) and be incapable forever of being re-elected to that house. My idea was that if they might be re-elected, they would be casting their eyes forward to the period of election (however distant) and be currying favor with the electors, and consequently dependent on them. My reason for fixing them in office for a term of years rather than for life, was that they might have an idea that they were at a certain period to return into the mass of the people and become the governed instead of the governors which might still keep alive that regard to the public good that otherwise they might perhaps be induced by their independence to forget.”
Today our politicians see themselves as elites sent to Washington for life, to live off our efforts. Our two party system has ironically become a spectacle of like-minded aristocrats benefitting from larger government, more laws, and dependent constituencies. Political life at the Federal level is about personal benefit, not public service. As the election season comes upon us this year, our votes are about both our short-term future and the long-term vision for America, the future we will give our children. We watched the giddiness of a single majority manipulate parliamentary rules, object to debate, lash out at voters, run from town hall meetings, and fundamentally change our country. Whether change was best, you must decide and I challenge you to engage in the electoral process.
Saturday, October 09, 2010
Ex-wives and their opinions of ex-husbands suck. One must wonder why the court system puts a priority on the financial support to maintain the lifestyle of the woman over involvement of Dad in the kids lives. Father's rights groups continue to argue for equal and shared parenting, Dads like me are willing, able, and want to be part of our childrens' lives. However, a presumption occurs in "husband penalty court" (Family Court) that the kids must live with Mom, Dad is relegated to see them every other weekend and one night a week. For that privelage, Dad typically pays 50% or more of his net income.
When divorce occurs Mom gets the house and Dad finds himself looking for a place to live. With the financial burden placed on him he cannot provide a comparable lifestyle. Thus, he finds a small apartment, trailer, or home in a shit neighborhood. Soon he finds his kids don't want to come see him and he is pushed out of their lives.
What would happen if we started with a presumption of equality? Both Mom and Dad would be required to provide equally for the kids, share equal time, and work together to raise them - just as if they were married. Without a "my time" and "your time" scenario, or punishment for success by the court system, the conflict at home would die down. Children would benefit from both parents.
My personal situation had us both living within 4 miles of each other until I lost my job. The courts rewarded my ex-wife with the opportunity to work part-time, even though her potential to earn income as a Family Court attorney was significantly higher. At first I had a liberal visitation schedule, and was very grateful. But, she maintained there would be no excess time and constantly worked to avoid the legal wording of Right of First Refusal. Repeatedly the legal system had to be invoked to maintain my role as a father. Ultimately, when I lost my job, I lost. I remained stunned that a judge, whose husband worked in the same office as my ex-wife, could rule that "until I had nothing left" I would not find relief. Along the way I sold assets, lost my home, and liquidated 20 years worth of savings. Regardless of the "stuff", I lost my kids - having to move 500 miles away to find work.
At first my ex-wife worked with me to help facilitate seeing the kids. Ultimately, she took the position the burden should be entirely on me to come visit them - requiring time off from work I don't have, keeping them from their new brother, pets, home, grandparents near me.
Let's try this - shared and equal parenting with equal custody. Tomorrow, no questions asked, we could live in the same town, split time with the kids, and have no child support. Our kids would benefit from both parents living within miles of each other and being able to participate in school events. Considering child support is nearly twice the amount of most mortgages, until that financial relief comes I will not have the wherewithal to be part of my kids lives.
Our society has chosen to reward those who do nothing and take advantage. My ex-wife is a taker, a leach, and failing to teach our children personal responsibility. I challenge the lawmakers to take a tough look at the presumption of custody and ask how it has evolved to personal idebtedness for one party and a winning lotter ticket for the other. The children lose one parent along the way and never know the importance of a father in their lives.
When divorce occurs Mom gets the house and Dad finds himself looking for a place to live. With the financial burden placed on him he cannot provide a comparable lifestyle. Thus, he finds a small apartment, trailer, or home in a shit neighborhood. Soon he finds his kids don't want to come see him and he is pushed out of their lives.
What would happen if we started with a presumption of equality? Both Mom and Dad would be required to provide equally for the kids, share equal time, and work together to raise them - just as if they were married. Without a "my time" and "your time" scenario, or punishment for success by the court system, the conflict at home would die down. Children would benefit from both parents.
My personal situation had us both living within 4 miles of each other until I lost my job. The courts rewarded my ex-wife with the opportunity to work part-time, even though her potential to earn income as a Family Court attorney was significantly higher. At first I had a liberal visitation schedule, and was very grateful. But, she maintained there would be no excess time and constantly worked to avoid the legal wording of Right of First Refusal. Repeatedly the legal system had to be invoked to maintain my role as a father. Ultimately, when I lost my job, I lost. I remained stunned that a judge, whose husband worked in the same office as my ex-wife, could rule that "until I had nothing left" I would not find relief. Along the way I sold assets, lost my home, and liquidated 20 years worth of savings. Regardless of the "stuff", I lost my kids - having to move 500 miles away to find work.
At first my ex-wife worked with me to help facilitate seeing the kids. Ultimately, she took the position the burden should be entirely on me to come visit them - requiring time off from work I don't have, keeping them from their new brother, pets, home, grandparents near me.
Let's try this - shared and equal parenting with equal custody. Tomorrow, no questions asked, we could live in the same town, split time with the kids, and have no child support. Our kids would benefit from both parents living within miles of each other and being able to participate in school events. Considering child support is nearly twice the amount of most mortgages, until that financial relief comes I will not have the wherewithal to be part of my kids lives.
Our society has chosen to reward those who do nothing and take advantage. My ex-wife is a taker, a leach, and failing to teach our children personal responsibility. I challenge the lawmakers to take a tough look at the presumption of custody and ask how it has evolved to personal idebtedness for one party and a winning lotter ticket for the other. The children lose one parent along the way and never know the importance of a father in their lives.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Sleeping Dogs
My dog loves to sleep, he is content having me care for him and returns the favor of unquestionable loyalty to me, watching my home, and protecting my children. However, if he were kicked while sleeping he would awake with a vengeance, ready to attack. I believe the American people, regardless of political affiliation, are like my dog: content, apathetic, happy to be cared for, and quite loyal. But something has changed during the last two years; the 300 million of us have been kicked by the 535 members of Congress and are awake, growling, and ready to attack. We are tired of the politicians in Washington stealing our futures, committing crimes, and believing they are anointed for life to govern us.
Over the last 18 months the elite political establishments have criticized the Tea Party; claiming it was orchestrated by wealthy individuals as “Astroturf.” It was hypothesized it was an organized effort and no one believed the American people would come together April 15 with 750 rallies across America proving it is a grassroots effort. The major news networks incorrectly reported the movement as racist, radical right-wingers, and a split in the Republican Party. Many see this is as a grab for conservatives; so continues Washington’s and the elite political establishment’s misunderstanding of those they govern. I assert the Tea Party movement is America: rural and suburban people, family oriented, hard-working with morals, values and ethics. We understand Congress has passed laws over our objections, exempted itself from those laws, and stolen the future of many generations.
In the primaries last week Tea Party candidates succeeded in changing the status quo. Since April 2009 Tea Party rallies have proven they represent everyone, although portrayed as radical and racist, and even a fad, by the mainstream media. I have watched black, white, Hispanic, women and men marching together to remind Washington they need to hear us. Voter revolutions have occurred before, most notably 1994 was the last time and there was talk of term limits and strong anti-incumbent sentiment. The following years were better for all, debate was forced into the two party system, and a President with an out-of-touch agenda was forced to curtail his radical desires. The single party majority currently controlling the Congress and the Executive Branch of government has kicked the dog, forcing him to realize tyranny comes while sleeping.
My dog loves to sleep, he is content having me care for him and returns the favor of unquestionable loyalty to me, watching my home, and protecting my children. However, if he were kicked while sleeping he would awake with a vengeance, ready to attack. I believe the American people, regardless of political affiliation, are like my dog: content, apathetic, happy to be cared for, and quite loyal. But something has changed during the last two years; the 300 million of us have been kicked by the 535 members of Congress and are awake, growling, and ready to attack. We are tired of the politicians in Washington stealing our futures, committing crimes, and believing they are anointed for life to govern us.
Over the last 18 months the elite political establishments have criticized the Tea Party; claiming it was orchestrated by wealthy individuals as “Astroturf.” It was hypothesized it was an organized effort and no one believed the American people would come together April 15 with 750 rallies across America proving it is a grassroots effort. The major news networks incorrectly reported the movement as racist, radical right-wingers, and a split in the Republican Party. Many see this is as a grab for conservatives; so continues Washington’s and the elite political establishment’s misunderstanding of those they govern. I assert the Tea Party movement is America: rural and suburban people, family oriented, hard-working with morals, values and ethics. We understand Congress has passed laws over our objections, exempted itself from those laws, and stolen the future of many generations.
In the primaries last week Tea Party candidates succeeded in changing the status quo. Since April 2009 Tea Party rallies have proven they represent everyone, although portrayed as radical and racist, and even a fad, by the mainstream media. I have watched black, white, Hispanic, women and men marching together to remind Washington they need to hear us. Voter revolutions have occurred before, most notably 1994 was the last time and there was talk of term limits and strong anti-incumbent sentiment. The following years were better for all, debate was forced into the two party system, and a President with an out-of-touch agenda was forced to curtail his radical desires. The single party majority currently controlling the Congress and the Executive Branch of government has kicked the dog, forcing him to realize tyranny comes while sleeping.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Burn Qurans
I am disappointed this afternoon, Thursday the 9th of September, after reading reports that Pastor Terry Jones has announced his church will not burn the Quran on Saturday, September 11th, the ninth anniversary of the day America was attacked by Muslim extremists. Last week I wrote in support of the project in New York, building a mosque at Ground Zero. Constitutionally the right to build the Mosque is guaranteed; however distasteful. Similarly, Pastor Jones’ right to burn the Quran is guaranteed; again, however distasteful. I would hope our military could defend itself, but that appears questionable based on public comments.
What truly concerns me is the world’s willingness to cow tow to the Muslim extremists and threats. Are we to believe the world’s largest superpower, the USA, and our western allies cannot defend citizens against threats from religious zealots who have become a political movement set on killing all who disagree with them? President Kennedy’s Secretary of State, Dean Rusk, said “appeasing the aggressor only makes him more aggressive.” Repeatedly, this political movement, called Islam, has attacked innocent civilians worldwide: December 1992 in Yemen, 1993 WTC in New York, 1998 Kenya and Tanzania US Embassies killing 200 and injuring 5000, October 2000 USS Cole, 2000 Rizal Day Bombings in the Philippines, WTC 9/11/2001, 2007 Algiers Bombing, 2008 Danish Embassy, and the 2009 Little Rock Arkansas Recruitment building. Additionally, although not tied directly to Al-Qaeda, the Ft. Hood Massacre, failed 2009 Northwest Airlines bombing, and the failed Times Square bombing were also in “the name of Allah.”
Our President offers apologies to the nations of the world that oppress their mothers, daughters, and wives. The same nations with state established religion, censorship, and political oppression. He finds reasons to coddle our enemies, fails to retaliate, and explains we will withdraw troops to satisfy the demands of the petroleum-based kingdoms harboring the Jihadists who hate us. Our enemy issues “fatwa” for denigrating their political idols and writings, Muhammad, Allah and the Quran. Just check with Solomon Rushdie and the creators of South Park. Pastor Jones is considered by many a red-neck racist extremist; maybe he is a guy with the cojones to stand up to our enemy. Most saddening is General Patreaus’ concern for troop safety which makes me wonder who is winning the war. It appears 2,983 died on 9/11/2001 in vain and there can only be one conclusion: we must all live in fear of Islam.
I am disappointed this afternoon, Thursday the 9th of September, after reading reports that Pastor Terry Jones has announced his church will not burn the Quran on Saturday, September 11th, the ninth anniversary of the day America was attacked by Muslim extremists. Last week I wrote in support of the project in New York, building a mosque at Ground Zero. Constitutionally the right to build the Mosque is guaranteed; however distasteful. Similarly, Pastor Jones’ right to burn the Quran is guaranteed; again, however distasteful. I would hope our military could defend itself, but that appears questionable based on public comments.
What truly concerns me is the world’s willingness to cow tow to the Muslim extremists and threats. Are we to believe the world’s largest superpower, the USA, and our western allies cannot defend citizens against threats from religious zealots who have become a political movement set on killing all who disagree with them? President Kennedy’s Secretary of State, Dean Rusk, said “appeasing the aggressor only makes him more aggressive.” Repeatedly, this political movement, called Islam, has attacked innocent civilians worldwide: December 1992 in Yemen, 1993 WTC in New York, 1998 Kenya and Tanzania US Embassies killing 200 and injuring 5000, October 2000 USS Cole, 2000 Rizal Day Bombings in the Philippines, WTC 9/11/2001, 2007 Algiers Bombing, 2008 Danish Embassy, and the 2009 Little Rock Arkansas Recruitment building. Additionally, although not tied directly to Al-Qaeda, the Ft. Hood Massacre, failed 2009 Northwest Airlines bombing, and the failed Times Square bombing were also in “the name of Allah.”
Our President offers apologies to the nations of the world that oppress their mothers, daughters, and wives. The same nations with state established religion, censorship, and political oppression. He finds reasons to coddle our enemies, fails to retaliate, and explains we will withdraw troops to satisfy the demands of the petroleum-based kingdoms harboring the Jihadists who hate us. Our enemy issues “fatwa” for denigrating their political idols and writings, Muhammad, Allah and the Quran. Just check with Solomon Rushdie and the creators of South Park. Pastor Jones is considered by many a red-neck racist extremist; maybe he is a guy with the cojones to stand up to our enemy. Most saddening is General Patreaus’ concern for troop safety which makes me wonder who is winning the war. It appears 2,983 died on 9/11/2001 in vain and there can only be one conclusion: we must all live in fear of Islam.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Obama is Right
This is probably the most concerning column I have written, not because I agree with the President but because the issue is sensitive, to both sides. Currently, whether to build Park51 (a.k.a. Ground Zero Mosque) is driving passionate public debates. Hesitantly, President Obama voiced his opinion two weeks ago when he said the right to build the project was constitutionally protected. The following day he made further comments stating while constitutionally protected, it may be in bad taste. I must agree with both of his comments. While it may be in bad taste, I do not believe it is a community center designed to protect, or possibly sympathize to Islamic terrorists as has been asserted by some in the media. Ultimately, the court of public opinion will either empower the developers and those funding the project, or send them packing.
I am disturbed by talk radio pundits flummoxing methods. Other than to inflame an ill-informed public there is no other purpose for the front-page debate. The fallacy of the current argument comes from the presumption if terrorists are Muslim then all Muslims are terrorists. I take issue because living in the south, as a white male; I am stereotyped as a racist redneck by the argument racist rednecks are southern white males. Similarly, a German born in the 1920’s is not automatically a Nazi. What has been lost in the argument propelled center stage is the right to build a place of worship, as protected by the First Amendment of the Constitution. The same people who herald the constitution in arguments against healthcare, bailouts, and social programs are quick to stomp the same document when it does not meet their needs.
There are many aspects of the Constitution which may not conveniently fit our desires and likes. However, if we remain consistent in our application, trusting the truths set forth by the founding fathers we will not go wrong. In the case of Park51, it is clear there is no constitutional violation to build. The decision to build is purely local and is governed by the zoning laws, planning commissions, and local electorate. Does it feel good to support building the project? No, but the more important issue at hand is support of the Constitution in the face of our enemies, asserting what separates our country from those who attack us in the name of God.
This is probably the most concerning column I have written, not because I agree with the President but because the issue is sensitive, to both sides. Currently, whether to build Park51 (a.k.a. Ground Zero Mosque) is driving passionate public debates. Hesitantly, President Obama voiced his opinion two weeks ago when he said the right to build the project was constitutionally protected. The following day he made further comments stating while constitutionally protected, it may be in bad taste. I must agree with both of his comments. While it may be in bad taste, I do not believe it is a community center designed to protect, or possibly sympathize to Islamic terrorists as has been asserted by some in the media. Ultimately, the court of public opinion will either empower the developers and those funding the project, or send them packing.
I am disturbed by talk radio pundits flummoxing methods. Other than to inflame an ill-informed public there is no other purpose for the front-page debate. The fallacy of the current argument comes from the presumption if terrorists are Muslim then all Muslims are terrorists. I take issue because living in the south, as a white male; I am stereotyped as a racist redneck by the argument racist rednecks are southern white males. Similarly, a German born in the 1920’s is not automatically a Nazi. What has been lost in the argument propelled center stage is the right to build a place of worship, as protected by the First Amendment of the Constitution. The same people who herald the constitution in arguments against healthcare, bailouts, and social programs are quick to stomp the same document when it does not meet their needs.
There are many aspects of the Constitution which may not conveniently fit our desires and likes. However, if we remain consistent in our application, trusting the truths set forth by the founding fathers we will not go wrong. In the case of Park51, it is clear there is no constitutional violation to build. The decision to build is purely local and is governed by the zoning laws, planning commissions, and local electorate. Does it feel good to support building the project? No, but the more important issue at hand is support of the Constitution in the face of our enemies, asserting what separates our country from those who attack us in the name of God.
Thursday, September 02, 2010
It Will Get Worse -Be Prepared and Take Care of Yourself
12/28/2008 – by John Nelson (G8REngineer@yahoo.com)
I originally wrote this during the Christmas Holiday of 2008. Since I reference this paper in my blog, Economic Recovery? I wanted to post it here.--------------------------
My predictions for 2009 and 2010 are below. I felt compelled to put this together because I have shared these thoughts with my wife and many friends. I am bothered because I see a trend in daily newspapers and news programs to report with a degree of optimism, and then with surprise, when the news is worse than they had first reported. But, I keep finding the news is not worse than I expected.
As this year has gone by I have been concerned by current events as compared to history. Our government has bailed out defense contractors and other private companies before. In the 1930’s, the press and government denied what was taking place, but yet we have the benefit of history to know how bad things were. Today there is a certain level of optimism by many people and I hear comments like, “we are Americans and we always pull through.” While that statement may be true, I feel concern to blind acceptance that things are always going to be ok. Throughout this article I make references to natural disasters and other external events. I feel today’s economic issues are similar in that external forces are going to impact individual lives. If you ascertain nothing else from this writing I hope it is that the most significant economic changes in decades are currently occurring and preparing for the worst possible outcome will aid you in dealing with that possibility. Like all predictions or theories on trends, I may be wrong about the severity, it may be better or worse, or about the timing, events may come sooner or later. Regardless, I hope to convey concern and suggest preparation.
First, I want to provide some background information. I do not have cable television, I do not watch local news, and I do not read newspapers. On a daily and weekly basis I gather my news and opinions from the following sources:
Daily
• Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com) – I first review world markets, particularly Asia and Europe just prior to going to bed and when I first wake. Second, the news wire provided here is far superior to any other source available
• Drudge Report (http://www.drudgereport.com) – a great link to numerous worldwide news articles
• Peak Oil (http://www.peakoil.com) - a link to various energy, climate change, policy, and other news articles
• Kirk Report (http://www.kirkreport.com) – Kirk is a day trader and offers stock information. But, he also links to a huge number of financial articles and opinions focusing on Fed and other central bank policies
• Economic Populist (http://www.economicpopulist.org) – Average people’s opinions about what is currently taking place. Of most interest are the specifics of research including graphs, data, charts and details to defend positions. Short articles, highly informative.
• Seeking Alpha (http://www.seekingalpha.com) – Similar to Economic Populist
• Yahoo Finance Home Page (http://finance.yahoo.com/) – What the average person sees for headlines
• NBC Nightly News (Podcast) – download video each day and watch following morning
• CNBC Fast Money (Podcast) – download video each day and watch the following morning
• BBC Global News (Podcast) – download and usually listen the next day
Weekly
• Kunstler Cast (Podcast) – James Howard Kunstler weekly podcast. Focus is on the end of suburbia due to changes with fossil fuels
• Bob’s Gold Price Column (http://goldprice.org/bob) – what the doom and gloomers think about gold and inflation
• Matt Simmons (http://www.simmons.com) – an energy expert
Change is taking place around us. If you had told me ten years ago that I might find myself living in a situation where I would not have power for 5-10 days, not be able to go to the grocery store to buy food – especially refrigerated items, I would find lines at gas stations, or buildings around me would be boarded up taking on a third world look, I would have laughed! However, I have lived through that situation in the summer of 2004 in New Smyrna Beach due to the hurricanes Charley, Frances, and Jean. From that experience I re-evaluated what it meant to be prepared. I thought I had everything I needed to survive: a couple of gallons of water, a bow saw, candles and a few flashlights. I learned how naïve I was. Since then, I have added a generator, chain saw and spare chains, lanterns, camping gear, stockpiles of gasoline each June, regular testing of the generator, and many other items.
Am I crazy or am I prudently prepared? Any resident of the state of Florida who does not keep minimum supplies is living in a state of denial. Other disasters and events have struck in the last 25 years in the United States and elsewhere – how prepared would you be to take care of your family?
• Northridge Earthquake
• Hurricane’s Katrina, Charley, Andrew, Hugo, Floyd, etc
• Coal Ash Levee break in Tennessee
• Devastating tornadoes
• Mount St. Helen’s
• Christmas Tsunami in Indonesia
• Rogue wave – Daytona Beach 1996 (or so)
• Springtime flooding in the Midwest
• Terrorist attacks of 9/11/2001
• Rodney King riots
• Heat wave in Europe killing hundreds in France
• War in Sarajevo, a beautiful Olympic city
• Cholera outbreaks in Africa, 2008
My point is disasters and upheavals occur regularly, and without warning. Our ability to take care of ourselves is what matters in each case. One need only picture scenes from the news of how Hurricane Katrina victims responded versus the same, significant, devastation from Hurricane Charley in Punta Gorda, Florida and the importance of proper and prudent preparation becomes apparent. More importantly, self-sufficiency and the ability to survive without reliance on others or civil authorities is incredibly apparent.
Most citizens in the United States have lost the ability to think and be self-sufficient for themselves. Take an automobile owner’s manual from the 1960’s and compare it to today, 40 years later. My 1967 Mustang has details on lubricating the chassis, changing a tire, performing valve adjustments, and other maintenance. Today’s owners manual states the warranty will be voided if the work is not performed by an authorized service center. I would assert the average person, especially Generation X or Y, will call roadside assistance and wait 90 minutes to have a tire changed instead of taking 10 minutes and performing the work themselves. Furthermore, if food becomes an issue of concern I believe most citizens will be at a loss. They will not know how to grow or kill food due to the basic belief that food comes from the grocery store. I had a friend share his concerns about the differences today versus the Great Depression – in the 30’s he feels a person would have given his place in a food line to another out of kindness and sacrifice. Today, he feels your life is at risk due to the selfishness of most people and their inability to survive without assistance.
One problem society seems to face is forgetting our history. As recently as summer 2008 gasoline prices were over $4.00/gallon. Behaviors were changing: scooter and motorcycle riding was up, SUV’s purchases declined catastrophically, people moved closer to work or considered changing jobs to reduce commutes, trips were combined, leisure travel was eliminated, and overall there was a general trend toward conservation. In 1974, due to political events, Americans had to ration gasoline resulting in huge shortages. Odd and even days were used to determine purchases and none could be made on Sunday’s. An immediate move toward smaller cars was made. To a lesser extent, the same problems arose in the early 1980’s and panic over dependence on oil again ensued.
During 2008, many newsworthy events have taken place, but without the benefit of seeing them all at once it is hard to imagine the economic and societal decay taking place around us:
• Rice and flour shortages on the west coast as Asian populations understood shortages oversees
• Rising global food prices due to US policies on ethanol
• Gas shortages in the Southeast US due to supply problems after hurricanes
• Over a dozen airlines went into bankruptcy or out of business
• Major brand stores went bankrupt (Steak n Ale, Circuit City, Linens and Things, etc)
• More than 170 banks failed as of 12/1/2008
• Christmas holiday spending was the lowest in 40 years
• Year over year housing price decline of 13%
• Unemployment claims are at their highest in 25 years
• Diminishing new job opportunities, compounding unemployment problems
• Dow Jones high of 14,000 in October 2007, low of 7570 in November 2008 – 45% erasure of value
• 1 out of 10 mortgages is in default or behind on payments
• Rising defaults on credit cards and car loans
Throughout the year, news sources have reported events with an element of denial or ultimately surprise when the data become available. Just this week, on 12/26/08 I heard the following reported on Fox News Network:
“Retailers were surprised at the worse drop in holiday sales in over 40 years.”
They went on to report possible reasons such as: there were 6 less shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, a holiday snowstorm that kept consumers away from malls. The comical reporting came next: some consumers may be concerned about job loss and not spending as much, credit cards are maxed out and no new credit is available. Last but not least, they reported that the economy of the United States is consumer based and that the total GDP – the production of all products and services – is 70% consumerism. Thus, without the citizens consuming the economy is grinding to a halt. ‘They’ need to force ‘us’ to start consuming.
Our problem as a country and with our current economic situation is we do not make anything that anyone else wants. We make money and recycle it within our own borders. Thus, growth is a fantasy based on a false reality. The best example is real estate over the last six years; the rapid growth had nothing to do with a true increase in value due to supply and demand. Instead, the easy availability of credit perpetuated a debt-based drive toward home ownership where prior lending standard required 20% down (leveraging of 5:1) now allowed 5% down (leveraging 20:1). Finally, these standards were reduced to 0% or even -5% down – the equivalent of infinite leveraging. This was a house of cards doomed to collapse. During this time, the media constantly reported that housing prices would recover within a three to six months. This took place throughout late 2007 and all through 2008.
I had to set the background for where we have been before I felt I could make predictions on where we are going. My synopsis is below with a predictive narrative and finally recommendations to plan for the next 2-3 years:
• Housing – there will be no recovery in housing before the end of 2010. Housing prices in some areas inflated as much as 2%/month (24% per annum). Historically, housing rise at a rate equal to or just above inflation. Thus, it will take 10-15 years to work back to the 2006 highs. This is compounded further by an inventory of 4 million homes for sale when historic inventories are between 2 and 2.5 million. Last but not least, lending is not available to purchase homes with debt.
• Credit – Consumers will not have credit readily available until late 2009 or early 2010. Our consumption based economy will remain frozen until the spending engine can restart.
• Equity Markets – The Dow and S&P500 remain over valued. Current estimates of average earnings for the S&P are about $55. Thus, the S&P is trading on a forward multiplier of about 18-20. Analysts have consistently overvalued earnings and multipliers throughout 2008. Many blue-chip, dividend paying stocks are trading closer to a multiplier of 7-10. Historic norms are 14-15. Thus, using a multiplier of 10, the S&P should be at 550.
• Currency – The Fed has printed huge sums of monies. Taxpayers generally pay about $1 trillion per year in federal income taxes. In the last 12 months Congress and the Fed have promised about $7 trillion in bail outs, stimulus, and balance sheet increases. As large as the numbers are, a huge deflationary move has taken place due to the erasure of debt, thus offsetting some of the severity of the inflationary monetary policies. If other governments reduce lending rates and increase currencies, the dollar will not be devalued. However, inflation is inevitable.
• Oil and Energy – Oil has plunged to the mid-$30s from a high of $147/bbl in July 2008. Commodity markets tend to overshoot both directions to the high side and the low side while supply and demand realign. The issue with oil is not one that we are going to have no oil. Instead, the marginal cost to produce each subsequent barrel of oil is higher than the preceding barrel. This is the root concept of Peak Oil; supply will not keep pace with demand. Hubbert’s peak in the early 1970’s in the United States is well-documented and the same will apply to world supply and demand. During the peak there will be wild oscillations in prices, supply, and demand. We are at the beginning of the peak and experiencing the swings.
• Climatic Change – the Green lobby is promoting huge expenditures due to perceived global warming. Regardless of political views, climatic change appears to be taking place. The summer Artic ice in 2008 melted at a rate that allowed transit across the polar ice cap from North America to Asia and Europe that had not been possible due to being previously frozen for the last thousand years. Plants not exposed for a thousand years appeared this summer. The Greenland Ice shelf is melting at an unprecedented rate and the risk of a significant piece sliding into the ocean is increasing daily. There is less snow and ice to reflect sunlight causing a possible natural exponential warming trend that can not be reduced. Salinity values in the North Atlantic are changing, thus impacting the flow of the gulf stream and the natural cooling process in the northern hemisphere. These changes may be normal on a geological time scale which we can not measure or they may be due to increases in carbon in the atmosphere driven by man made changes in the last 150 years. Regardless, they appear to be taking place at a significant rate. This climatic change will impact coast cities, farming communities, water supplies, and world hunger.
• Geopolitical Issues – The middle-east remains an area of concern with religious based hatred of western civilizations being a catalyst for terrorism and oil policy changes. Israel has ramped up hostilities in Gaza Strip and India and Pakistan are both nuclear powers with increasing hostilities. Russia is establishing herself again as a world power, particularly with an interest on controlling energy and pipelines feeding Europe.
• Politics in the United States – A new, inexperienced president will try to create policies to save the country as he promised during the campaigns. At the same time, the House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, has a strong liberal agenda that she believes she can now accomplish including: union supported legislation, national health care, increased taxes and wealthy producers, and a general move to a more socialized country. President Obama will work to pass legislation to make owning firearms more difficult, most likely through taxation on ammunition or illegality of personally possessing ammunition like Switzerland successfully implemented in 2007. He will try to create 3 million jobs, but that will not impact the economy for 5-7 years. He will support another stimulus package and saving the auto makers, moves that will further add to our debts.
In 2009, I see a temporary stock market rally based on the euphoria of a new president and false confidence that he can implement programs that will save the country and the average person without significant ownership or pain on their part. The House will pass another stimulus package which will not stimulate the economy as consumers hoard cash out of fear of losing their jobs. The president will be tested by events in the middle-east that will ultimately result in him appearing weak as nothing can be done to prevent the hostilities that have brewed for thousands of years. Throughout first quarter 2009 unemployment will continue to rise at unprecedented rates, reaching 10% by April and 12% by July. Housing prices will continue to decline as lending is not available. As unemployment increases, consumers will further reduce spending worried about their own future and possible job losses. Those that have a job will be reluctant to consider moving and will not purchase existing or new homes.
Company earnings will decline as consumer spending slows and worldwide spending continues to decline. The stock market will test new lows at 7000, 6000, and finally 5000 before settling into a period of flat trading between 5000 and 6500 for three to five years. The media will begin to report, with surprise, a rise in consumer prices and producer prices in late 2009 as inflation begins to take hold due to the failed policies of the Fed and Congress. Housing again will not restart because lending rates will increase from 5% back to rates not seen since the early 1980’s of 12-14%. Oil prices will also increase for three reasons: a devaluation of the dollar against world currencies, reduction in supply from OPEC to gain a foothold back to the $80/bbl level they desire, and the previously discussed middle-east tensions causing further supply concerns. Hyperinflation will take hold in early 2010 causing President Obama to sign executive orders for price controls on basic staples such as milk, bread, flour, and sugar. Ensuing hoarding and shortages will occur as citizens try to stockpile supplies in anticipation of shortages. Riots and general unrest, particularly in New Orleans, Detroit, Washington DC, and Los Angeles will be reported. These riots will occur because the average population has not been taught how to survive or be self-sufficient. Instead, they have been raised as consumers with all of the requirements of civility readily available at a nearby Wal-Mart.
My recommendations are to prudently prepare. Just like an impending storm in a coastal Florida city, preparation will be the key to survival. Some of these changes will happen slowly, others rapidly. Preparation may be as simple as just thinking about what might happen. Regardless, good preparation may involve purchasing or stockpiling goods not normally kept.
• Investments should be made over the short term with sales into rallies and purchases in the troughs
• Short the S&P with the SDS if the symbol goes below 80 (or 85) and sell when above 110. You can repeat this strategy many times
• Reduce debt – do not take on new debt
• Refinance at historically low interest rates. They will be at 10-15% in the future. Refinance below 5.25%. You will not see this again in your lifetime.
• Do not make debt based purchases when rates are rising or above 9%. The monthly cost of cash flow is 30% minimum
• Hoard cash – it will diminish in value, but cash is king. Cash provides options.
• Make wise purchases – do not buy luxury or un-needed items
• Adequate preparation for 7-10 days of survival without power should be a minimum requirement regardless of where you live
• Tools for debris removal, house repair, and fixing and repairing household appliances should be available
• Basic first aid kits should be kept in all cars and at home
• Personal relationships should be made with local doctors and police to facilitate first priority care for you and your family
• Consideration should be given to a safe haven, a place to go
• A family plan should exist in the event of communication failures (no cell phones)
• Arming with a shotgun, rifle, and pistol should be done. Weapons can be used for protection, hunting, or trade if needed. They will last a lifetime and if political policy changes they may become very valuable
• Further preparation should be made in the face of inflation – spend an extra $20/week grocery shopping on staples and dry goods
• Ammunition, Gold, and Jack Daniels will be the currency of the future. Whether or not you own a gun, purchase one to two boxes of shotgun shells, 9 mm, or .38 cal ammunition monthly. Purchase a bottle of Jack Daniels monthly. All can be sold later.
• Learn basic first aid
• Consider solar power supply options and re-evaluate power tools owned to be rechargeable
• Explore basics of wind and solar electricity to charge power tools and items to maintain basic civility
• Inverters that convert 12-volt battery supplies to 110 to use with modern amenities
• Find outdoor solar lights at garage sales or store sale’s racks and use as indoor lighting by moving the solar panel outdoors and the lights inside
• Accumulate good camping gear – lanterns, sleeping bags, stove, and tent. Camp for a weekend or longer periods to understand what it is like to live without basics. Add to gear over time to improve survivability. Every time I camp it seems I want more flashlights, batteries, knives, propane, and lanterns to make my life easier. If it rains I want to stay dry – bags, containers, tarps, etc.
• Blankets, jackets, scarves, gloves
• Store all tools, gear, in organized easy to take with you containers
• Ensure tetanus and other immunizations are up to date
• Stockpile basic medicines such as Aspirin and Benadryl, iodine tablets for radiation exposure
• Keep Mylar, Duct Tape, chain saw blades, tarps, nails, screws, tie wraps for emergency repairs and protection against weather, gas hazards
All of the above can be part of your basic lifestyle and should help you feel prepared without feeling like a nutso preparing for the end of the world. Choose to consider living with the idea that Wal-Mart and the grocery store may not be there tomorrow.
Test your preparation with the following questions:
1) I live in a winter storm area; can I survive the cold and snow without power for 7 days?
2) A tree lands on my house during a rainstorm, can I make repairs on my own?
3) A train derails spilling chlorine gas, what would I do?
4) I am traveling and a terrorist attack occurs, communication is cut with my family. What would we do?
5) Price controls take place and bread costs $10/loaf. Can I cook and survive?
6) Social unrest is occurring and the National Guard has implemented curfews. Power is out and the grocery stores are closed. What would I do?
7) Gasoline is available in rations of 20 gallons per month, what would I do?
8) We are evacuating to another locale due to …….I find myself in tense situations while buying gasoline, what would I do?
9) A nearby levee breaks flooding our town and my neighborhood, what would I do?
10) An earthquake occurs, or the ground shifts resulting in the collapse of my home, what would I do?
Books and websites I recommend
• “The Long Emergency”, James Howard Kunstler – a rather prophetic view of what is currently happening written in 2004
• “World Made by Hand”, James Howard Kunstler – a fictional look at ‘life after’. After collapse of the government due to some event such as war or social disorder we are living like it is 1890 again
• “The Creature from Jekyll Island” – How the Federal Reserve was created and the control of banking over all decisions
• “Jericho” – The CBS Television series, two seasons. The writing/acting is horrible in the first few episodes but improves. It is too much like other CBS shows. However, it strengthens. You should take away from this the relationships that form, how people deal with crisis, and the warring tribal nature that develops between towns
• “Atlas Shrugged”, Ayn Rand – a fictional look at the world in a sense where producers choose to no longer be victimized by policies that take from those who make
• “Lucifer’s Hammer”, Larry Niven – a fictional book I read in 1979 about a meteor colliding with the earth. The hero is an engineer who prepares and survives through self-sufficiency
• Peak Oil, Life after the Crash (http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/) – Worth reviewing to gain education about possible changes in the future
• Build a Wind Turbine (http://www.mdpub.com/Wind_Turbine/index.html) – Want to build a practical windmill or solar panel – great site to see someone doing it
12/28/2008 – by John Nelson (G8REngineer@yahoo.com)
I originally wrote this during the Christmas Holiday of 2008. Since I reference this paper in my blog, Economic Recovery? I wanted to post it here.--------------------------
My predictions for 2009 and 2010 are below. I felt compelled to put this together because I have shared these thoughts with my wife and many friends. I am bothered because I see a trend in daily newspapers and news programs to report with a degree of optimism, and then with surprise, when the news is worse than they had first reported. But, I keep finding the news is not worse than I expected.
As this year has gone by I have been concerned by current events as compared to history. Our government has bailed out defense contractors and other private companies before. In the 1930’s, the press and government denied what was taking place, but yet we have the benefit of history to know how bad things were. Today there is a certain level of optimism by many people and I hear comments like, “we are Americans and we always pull through.” While that statement may be true, I feel concern to blind acceptance that things are always going to be ok. Throughout this article I make references to natural disasters and other external events. I feel today’s economic issues are similar in that external forces are going to impact individual lives. If you ascertain nothing else from this writing I hope it is that the most significant economic changes in decades are currently occurring and preparing for the worst possible outcome will aid you in dealing with that possibility. Like all predictions or theories on trends, I may be wrong about the severity, it may be better or worse, or about the timing, events may come sooner or later. Regardless, I hope to convey concern and suggest preparation.
First, I want to provide some background information. I do not have cable television, I do not watch local news, and I do not read newspapers. On a daily and weekly basis I gather my news and opinions from the following sources:
Daily
• Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com) – I first review world markets, particularly Asia and Europe just prior to going to bed and when I first wake. Second, the news wire provided here is far superior to any other source available
• Drudge Report (http://www.drudgereport.com) – a great link to numerous worldwide news articles
• Peak Oil (http://www.peakoil.com) - a link to various energy, climate change, policy, and other news articles
• Kirk Report (http://www.kirkreport.com) – Kirk is a day trader and offers stock information. But, he also links to a huge number of financial articles and opinions focusing on Fed and other central bank policies
• Economic Populist (http://www.economicpopulist.org) – Average people’s opinions about what is currently taking place. Of most interest are the specifics of research including graphs, data, charts and details to defend positions. Short articles, highly informative.
• Seeking Alpha (http://www.seekingalpha.com) – Similar to Economic Populist
• Yahoo Finance Home Page (http://finance.yahoo.com/) – What the average person sees for headlines
• NBC Nightly News (Podcast) – download video each day and watch following morning
• CNBC Fast Money (Podcast) – download video each day and watch the following morning
• BBC Global News (Podcast) – download and usually listen the next day
Weekly
• Kunstler Cast (Podcast) – James Howard Kunstler weekly podcast. Focus is on the end of suburbia due to changes with fossil fuels
• Bob’s Gold Price Column (http://goldprice.org/bob) – what the doom and gloomers think about gold and inflation
• Matt Simmons (http://www.simmons.com) – an energy expert
Change is taking place around us. If you had told me ten years ago that I might find myself living in a situation where I would not have power for 5-10 days, not be able to go to the grocery store to buy food – especially refrigerated items, I would find lines at gas stations, or buildings around me would be boarded up taking on a third world look, I would have laughed! However, I have lived through that situation in the summer of 2004 in New Smyrna Beach due to the hurricanes Charley, Frances, and Jean. From that experience I re-evaluated what it meant to be prepared. I thought I had everything I needed to survive: a couple of gallons of water, a bow saw, candles and a few flashlights. I learned how naïve I was. Since then, I have added a generator, chain saw and spare chains, lanterns, camping gear, stockpiles of gasoline each June, regular testing of the generator, and many other items.
Am I crazy or am I prudently prepared? Any resident of the state of Florida who does not keep minimum supplies is living in a state of denial. Other disasters and events have struck in the last 25 years in the United States and elsewhere – how prepared would you be to take care of your family?
• Northridge Earthquake
• Hurricane’s Katrina, Charley, Andrew, Hugo, Floyd, etc
• Coal Ash Levee break in Tennessee
• Devastating tornadoes
• Mount St. Helen’s
• Christmas Tsunami in Indonesia
• Rogue wave – Daytona Beach 1996 (or so)
• Springtime flooding in the Midwest
• Terrorist attacks of 9/11/2001
• Rodney King riots
• Heat wave in Europe killing hundreds in France
• War in Sarajevo, a beautiful Olympic city
• Cholera outbreaks in Africa, 2008
My point is disasters and upheavals occur regularly, and without warning. Our ability to take care of ourselves is what matters in each case. One need only picture scenes from the news of how Hurricane Katrina victims responded versus the same, significant, devastation from Hurricane Charley in Punta Gorda, Florida and the importance of proper and prudent preparation becomes apparent. More importantly, self-sufficiency and the ability to survive without reliance on others or civil authorities is incredibly apparent.
Most citizens in the United States have lost the ability to think and be self-sufficient for themselves. Take an automobile owner’s manual from the 1960’s and compare it to today, 40 years later. My 1967 Mustang has details on lubricating the chassis, changing a tire, performing valve adjustments, and other maintenance. Today’s owners manual states the warranty will be voided if the work is not performed by an authorized service center. I would assert the average person, especially Generation X or Y, will call roadside assistance and wait 90 minutes to have a tire changed instead of taking 10 minutes and performing the work themselves. Furthermore, if food becomes an issue of concern I believe most citizens will be at a loss. They will not know how to grow or kill food due to the basic belief that food comes from the grocery store. I had a friend share his concerns about the differences today versus the Great Depression – in the 30’s he feels a person would have given his place in a food line to another out of kindness and sacrifice. Today, he feels your life is at risk due to the selfishness of most people and their inability to survive without assistance.
One problem society seems to face is forgetting our history. As recently as summer 2008 gasoline prices were over $4.00/gallon. Behaviors were changing: scooter and motorcycle riding was up, SUV’s purchases declined catastrophically, people moved closer to work or considered changing jobs to reduce commutes, trips were combined, leisure travel was eliminated, and overall there was a general trend toward conservation. In 1974, due to political events, Americans had to ration gasoline resulting in huge shortages. Odd and even days were used to determine purchases and none could be made on Sunday’s. An immediate move toward smaller cars was made. To a lesser extent, the same problems arose in the early 1980’s and panic over dependence on oil again ensued.
During 2008, many newsworthy events have taken place, but without the benefit of seeing them all at once it is hard to imagine the economic and societal decay taking place around us:
• Rice and flour shortages on the west coast as Asian populations understood shortages oversees
• Rising global food prices due to US policies on ethanol
• Gas shortages in the Southeast US due to supply problems after hurricanes
• Over a dozen airlines went into bankruptcy or out of business
• Major brand stores went bankrupt (Steak n Ale, Circuit City, Linens and Things, etc)
• More than 170 banks failed as of 12/1/2008
• Christmas holiday spending was the lowest in 40 years
• Year over year housing price decline of 13%
• Unemployment claims are at their highest in 25 years
• Diminishing new job opportunities, compounding unemployment problems
• Dow Jones high of 14,000 in October 2007, low of 7570 in November 2008 – 45% erasure of value
• 1 out of 10 mortgages is in default or behind on payments
• Rising defaults on credit cards and car loans
Throughout the year, news sources have reported events with an element of denial or ultimately surprise when the data become available. Just this week, on 12/26/08 I heard the following reported on Fox News Network:
“Retailers were surprised at the worse drop in holiday sales in over 40 years.”
They went on to report possible reasons such as: there were 6 less shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, a holiday snowstorm that kept consumers away from malls. The comical reporting came next: some consumers may be concerned about job loss and not spending as much, credit cards are maxed out and no new credit is available. Last but not least, they reported that the economy of the United States is consumer based and that the total GDP – the production of all products and services – is 70% consumerism. Thus, without the citizens consuming the economy is grinding to a halt. ‘They’ need to force ‘us’ to start consuming.
Our problem as a country and with our current economic situation is we do not make anything that anyone else wants. We make money and recycle it within our own borders. Thus, growth is a fantasy based on a false reality. The best example is real estate over the last six years; the rapid growth had nothing to do with a true increase in value due to supply and demand. Instead, the easy availability of credit perpetuated a debt-based drive toward home ownership where prior lending standard required 20% down (leveraging of 5:1) now allowed 5% down (leveraging 20:1). Finally, these standards were reduced to 0% or even -5% down – the equivalent of infinite leveraging. This was a house of cards doomed to collapse. During this time, the media constantly reported that housing prices would recover within a three to six months. This took place throughout late 2007 and all through 2008.
I had to set the background for where we have been before I felt I could make predictions on where we are going. My synopsis is below with a predictive narrative and finally recommendations to plan for the next 2-3 years:
• Housing – there will be no recovery in housing before the end of 2010. Housing prices in some areas inflated as much as 2%/month (24% per annum). Historically, housing rise at a rate equal to or just above inflation. Thus, it will take 10-15 years to work back to the 2006 highs. This is compounded further by an inventory of 4 million homes for sale when historic inventories are between 2 and 2.5 million. Last but not least, lending is not available to purchase homes with debt.
• Credit – Consumers will not have credit readily available until late 2009 or early 2010. Our consumption based economy will remain frozen until the spending engine can restart.
• Equity Markets – The Dow and S&P500 remain over valued. Current estimates of average earnings for the S&P are about $55. Thus, the S&P is trading on a forward multiplier of about 18-20. Analysts have consistently overvalued earnings and multipliers throughout 2008. Many blue-chip, dividend paying stocks are trading closer to a multiplier of 7-10. Historic norms are 14-15. Thus, using a multiplier of 10, the S&P should be at 550.
• Currency – The Fed has printed huge sums of monies. Taxpayers generally pay about $1 trillion per year in federal income taxes. In the last 12 months Congress and the Fed have promised about $7 trillion in bail outs, stimulus, and balance sheet increases. As large as the numbers are, a huge deflationary move has taken place due to the erasure of debt, thus offsetting some of the severity of the inflationary monetary policies. If other governments reduce lending rates and increase currencies, the dollar will not be devalued. However, inflation is inevitable.
• Oil and Energy – Oil has plunged to the mid-$30s from a high of $147/bbl in July 2008. Commodity markets tend to overshoot both directions to the high side and the low side while supply and demand realign. The issue with oil is not one that we are going to have no oil. Instead, the marginal cost to produce each subsequent barrel of oil is higher than the preceding barrel. This is the root concept of Peak Oil; supply will not keep pace with demand. Hubbert’s peak in the early 1970’s in the United States is well-documented and the same will apply to world supply and demand. During the peak there will be wild oscillations in prices, supply, and demand. We are at the beginning of the peak and experiencing the swings.
• Climatic Change – the Green lobby is promoting huge expenditures due to perceived global warming. Regardless of political views, climatic change appears to be taking place. The summer Artic ice in 2008 melted at a rate that allowed transit across the polar ice cap from North America to Asia and Europe that had not been possible due to being previously frozen for the last thousand years. Plants not exposed for a thousand years appeared this summer. The Greenland Ice shelf is melting at an unprecedented rate and the risk of a significant piece sliding into the ocean is increasing daily. There is less snow and ice to reflect sunlight causing a possible natural exponential warming trend that can not be reduced. Salinity values in the North Atlantic are changing, thus impacting the flow of the gulf stream and the natural cooling process in the northern hemisphere. These changes may be normal on a geological time scale which we can not measure or they may be due to increases in carbon in the atmosphere driven by man made changes in the last 150 years. Regardless, they appear to be taking place at a significant rate. This climatic change will impact coast cities, farming communities, water supplies, and world hunger.
• Geopolitical Issues – The middle-east remains an area of concern with religious based hatred of western civilizations being a catalyst for terrorism and oil policy changes. Israel has ramped up hostilities in Gaza Strip and India and Pakistan are both nuclear powers with increasing hostilities. Russia is establishing herself again as a world power, particularly with an interest on controlling energy and pipelines feeding Europe.
• Politics in the United States – A new, inexperienced president will try to create policies to save the country as he promised during the campaigns. At the same time, the House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, has a strong liberal agenda that she believes she can now accomplish including: union supported legislation, national health care, increased taxes and wealthy producers, and a general move to a more socialized country. President Obama will work to pass legislation to make owning firearms more difficult, most likely through taxation on ammunition or illegality of personally possessing ammunition like Switzerland successfully implemented in 2007. He will try to create 3 million jobs, but that will not impact the economy for 5-7 years. He will support another stimulus package and saving the auto makers, moves that will further add to our debts.
In 2009, I see a temporary stock market rally based on the euphoria of a new president and false confidence that he can implement programs that will save the country and the average person without significant ownership or pain on their part. The House will pass another stimulus package which will not stimulate the economy as consumers hoard cash out of fear of losing their jobs. The president will be tested by events in the middle-east that will ultimately result in him appearing weak as nothing can be done to prevent the hostilities that have brewed for thousands of years. Throughout first quarter 2009 unemployment will continue to rise at unprecedented rates, reaching 10% by April and 12% by July. Housing prices will continue to decline as lending is not available. As unemployment increases, consumers will further reduce spending worried about their own future and possible job losses. Those that have a job will be reluctant to consider moving and will not purchase existing or new homes.
Company earnings will decline as consumer spending slows and worldwide spending continues to decline. The stock market will test new lows at 7000, 6000, and finally 5000 before settling into a period of flat trading between 5000 and 6500 for three to five years. The media will begin to report, with surprise, a rise in consumer prices and producer prices in late 2009 as inflation begins to take hold due to the failed policies of the Fed and Congress. Housing again will not restart because lending rates will increase from 5% back to rates not seen since the early 1980’s of 12-14%. Oil prices will also increase for three reasons: a devaluation of the dollar against world currencies, reduction in supply from OPEC to gain a foothold back to the $80/bbl level they desire, and the previously discussed middle-east tensions causing further supply concerns. Hyperinflation will take hold in early 2010 causing President Obama to sign executive orders for price controls on basic staples such as milk, bread, flour, and sugar. Ensuing hoarding and shortages will occur as citizens try to stockpile supplies in anticipation of shortages. Riots and general unrest, particularly in New Orleans, Detroit, Washington DC, and Los Angeles will be reported. These riots will occur because the average population has not been taught how to survive or be self-sufficient. Instead, they have been raised as consumers with all of the requirements of civility readily available at a nearby Wal-Mart.
My recommendations are to prudently prepare. Just like an impending storm in a coastal Florida city, preparation will be the key to survival. Some of these changes will happen slowly, others rapidly. Preparation may be as simple as just thinking about what might happen. Regardless, good preparation may involve purchasing or stockpiling goods not normally kept.
• Investments should be made over the short term with sales into rallies and purchases in the troughs
• Short the S&P with the SDS if the symbol goes below 80 (or 85) and sell when above 110. You can repeat this strategy many times
• Reduce debt – do not take on new debt
• Refinance at historically low interest rates. They will be at 10-15% in the future. Refinance below 5.25%. You will not see this again in your lifetime.
• Do not make debt based purchases when rates are rising or above 9%. The monthly cost of cash flow is 30% minimum
• Hoard cash – it will diminish in value, but cash is king. Cash provides options.
• Make wise purchases – do not buy luxury or un-needed items
• Adequate preparation for 7-10 days of survival without power should be a minimum requirement regardless of where you live
• Tools for debris removal, house repair, and fixing and repairing household appliances should be available
• Basic first aid kits should be kept in all cars and at home
• Personal relationships should be made with local doctors and police to facilitate first priority care for you and your family
• Consideration should be given to a safe haven, a place to go
• A family plan should exist in the event of communication failures (no cell phones)
• Arming with a shotgun, rifle, and pistol should be done. Weapons can be used for protection, hunting, or trade if needed. They will last a lifetime and if political policy changes they may become very valuable
• Further preparation should be made in the face of inflation – spend an extra $20/week grocery shopping on staples and dry goods
• Ammunition, Gold, and Jack Daniels will be the currency of the future. Whether or not you own a gun, purchase one to two boxes of shotgun shells, 9 mm, or .38 cal ammunition monthly. Purchase a bottle of Jack Daniels monthly. All can be sold later.
• Learn basic first aid
• Consider solar power supply options and re-evaluate power tools owned to be rechargeable
• Explore basics of wind and solar electricity to charge power tools and items to maintain basic civility
• Inverters that convert 12-volt battery supplies to 110 to use with modern amenities
• Find outdoor solar lights at garage sales or store sale’s racks and use as indoor lighting by moving the solar panel outdoors and the lights inside
• Accumulate good camping gear – lanterns, sleeping bags, stove, and tent. Camp for a weekend or longer periods to understand what it is like to live without basics. Add to gear over time to improve survivability. Every time I camp it seems I want more flashlights, batteries, knives, propane, and lanterns to make my life easier. If it rains I want to stay dry – bags, containers, tarps, etc.
• Blankets, jackets, scarves, gloves
• Store all tools, gear, in organized easy to take with you containers
• Ensure tetanus and other immunizations are up to date
• Stockpile basic medicines such as Aspirin and Benadryl, iodine tablets for radiation exposure
• Keep Mylar, Duct Tape, chain saw blades, tarps, nails, screws, tie wraps for emergency repairs and protection against weather, gas hazards
All of the above can be part of your basic lifestyle and should help you feel prepared without feeling like a nutso preparing for the end of the world. Choose to consider living with the idea that Wal-Mart and the grocery store may not be there tomorrow.
Test your preparation with the following questions:
1) I live in a winter storm area; can I survive the cold and snow without power for 7 days?
2) A tree lands on my house during a rainstorm, can I make repairs on my own?
3) A train derails spilling chlorine gas, what would I do?
4) I am traveling and a terrorist attack occurs, communication is cut with my family. What would we do?
5) Price controls take place and bread costs $10/loaf. Can I cook and survive?
6) Social unrest is occurring and the National Guard has implemented curfews. Power is out and the grocery stores are closed. What would I do?
7) Gasoline is available in rations of 20 gallons per month, what would I do?
8) We are evacuating to another locale due to …….I find myself in tense situations while buying gasoline, what would I do?
9) A nearby levee breaks flooding our town and my neighborhood, what would I do?
10) An earthquake occurs, or the ground shifts resulting in the collapse of my home, what would I do?
Books and websites I recommend
• “The Long Emergency”, James Howard Kunstler – a rather prophetic view of what is currently happening written in 2004
• “World Made by Hand”, James Howard Kunstler – a fictional look at ‘life after’. After collapse of the government due to some event such as war or social disorder we are living like it is 1890 again
• “The Creature from Jekyll Island” – How the Federal Reserve was created and the control of banking over all decisions
• “Jericho” – The CBS Television series, two seasons. The writing/acting is horrible in the first few episodes but improves. It is too much like other CBS shows. However, it strengthens. You should take away from this the relationships that form, how people deal with crisis, and the warring tribal nature that develops between towns
• “Atlas Shrugged”, Ayn Rand – a fictional look at the world in a sense where producers choose to no longer be victimized by policies that take from those who make
• “Lucifer’s Hammer”, Larry Niven – a fictional book I read in 1979 about a meteor colliding with the earth. The hero is an engineer who prepares and survives through self-sufficiency
• Peak Oil, Life after the Crash (http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/) – Worth reviewing to gain education about possible changes in the future
• Build a Wind Turbine (http://www.mdpub.com/Wind_Turbine/index.html) – Want to build a practical windmill or solar panel – great site to see someone doing it
Wednesday, September 01, 2010
Economic Recovery?
Last week Vice President Joe Biden took credit for the economic recovery underway. I disagree based on facts. First, the unemployment rate is 2-3 points worse than projected without a stimulus package. Second, four important housing numbers last week illustrate no recovery: existing home sales fell 27% over the prior month to a historic low, new home sales fell to the lowest number since 1963, existing home inventories rose to a historic level, and interest rates fell to a historic low. Third, the teen jobless rate is at the lowest level since 1948. Fourth, the GDP was revised downward for the second quarter by approximately 30%, thus deflating the optimism the already sluggish number was a sign of recovery. Fifth, the ratio of job seekers to jobs remains high at 5:1 versus historic averages.
In December 2008 I wrote a seven page paper detailing my predictions for the economy after the presidential election. One friend poked fun saying I had written my “manifesto” while away in the mountains. Interestingly, I re-read the paper before last week’s numbers came out and my predictions were prophetic. If we disregard the stock market, I accurately predicted any lack of recovery. In hindsight though, main street does not care about the Dow Jones 30 Industrials, nor should they. The pundits of financial television spoke of “green shoots” and pontificated recovery for the last twelve months while working Americans have lost jobs, homes, and credit. Concurrently, bankers subsidized by TARP have profited handsomely.
The biggest problem in measuring this recovery is the data itself. The DJIA changes, and has changed since the crash in March 2009. Thus, this index of companies is not the same index it was in the 1930s, or even 18 months ago. Second, the government has changed its methods of measuring inflation and unemployment. Our 9.6% unemployment rate, indicating we are in better condition than the Great Depression, is closer to 20% when measured the way unemployment was reported in the 1930s.
I therefore assert we are in a “Hidden Depression”. There are no soup lines, but 40.3 million Americans receive food stamps. Unemployment benefits have been extended to protect families. Unlike the 1930s, we own more “stuff” and it appears to protect our personal falls. Sadly, our leaders are repeating the failings of the Great Depression: providing false optimism, ignoring main street and rewarding banks, and implementing policies doomed to failure.
Last week Vice President Joe Biden took credit for the economic recovery underway. I disagree based on facts. First, the unemployment rate is 2-3 points worse than projected without a stimulus package. Second, four important housing numbers last week illustrate no recovery: existing home sales fell 27% over the prior month to a historic low, new home sales fell to the lowest number since 1963, existing home inventories rose to a historic level, and interest rates fell to a historic low. Third, the teen jobless rate is at the lowest level since 1948. Fourth, the GDP was revised downward for the second quarter by approximately 30%, thus deflating the optimism the already sluggish number was a sign of recovery. Fifth, the ratio of job seekers to jobs remains high at 5:1 versus historic averages.
In December 2008 I wrote a seven page paper detailing my predictions for the economy after the presidential election. One friend poked fun saying I had written my “manifesto” while away in the mountains. Interestingly, I re-read the paper before last week’s numbers came out and my predictions were prophetic. If we disregard the stock market, I accurately predicted any lack of recovery. In hindsight though, main street does not care about the Dow Jones 30 Industrials, nor should they. The pundits of financial television spoke of “green shoots” and pontificated recovery for the last twelve months while working Americans have lost jobs, homes, and credit. Concurrently, bankers subsidized by TARP have profited handsomely.
The biggest problem in measuring this recovery is the data itself. The DJIA changes, and has changed since the crash in March 2009. Thus, this index of companies is not the same index it was in the 1930s, or even 18 months ago. Second, the government has changed its methods of measuring inflation and unemployment. Our 9.6% unemployment rate, indicating we are in better condition than the Great Depression, is closer to 20% when measured the way unemployment was reported in the 1930s.
I therefore assert we are in a “Hidden Depression”. There are no soup lines, but 40.3 million Americans receive food stamps. Unemployment benefits have been extended to protect families. Unlike the 1930s, we own more “stuff” and it appears to protect our personal falls. Sadly, our leaders are repeating the failings of the Great Depression: providing false optimism, ignoring main street and rewarding banks, and implementing policies doomed to failure.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Obama v. Putin
This was too damn funny to not post here.
When I saw this picture of President Obama today I was LMAO. "Dork" was my first thought. Hmmm, helmet, girl's bike and he is too big for it.
Meanwhile Russian President Putin tranquilized tigers, flew aircraft to assist firefighting, and went whale hunting last week.
This was too damn funny to not post here.
When I saw this picture of President Obama today I was LMAO. "Dork" was my first thought. Hmmm, helmet, girl's bike and he is too big for it.
Meanwhile Russian President Putin tranquilized tigers, flew aircraft to assist firefighting, and went whale hunting last week.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Gender Bias
Last week I encountered a woman I previously knew; a very attractive successful vice president of a national company. Ironically, her reputation is one of being a “total b—ch”. This prompted me to wonder why people feel intimidated by successful women whereas I have always been attracted to and admired successful intelligent women. Personally, my wife LeeAnn is beautiful, has worked as a financial controller for a Ross Perot company with numerous people reporting to her, and is now attaining her CPA. Similarly, my girlfriend prior to LeeAnn turned heads and is vice president of a national healthcare company. But yet, both are denigrated by people who do not know them. Having two daughters I feel hypersensitive to this issue as I encourage and push them to achieve more, challenging them academically. However, their friends, and even some family, fail to support and push them.
Sadly, it appears many Americans regard successful, attractive women as enemies; often denigrated with the “b” or “c” words. A woman relegated to part-time work or a stereotypical female job finds herself held in higher regard, but it seems these women are the first to insult those who have found success. Among males, the opposite is true. A tough, good looking guy rising to a top-management position, becoming a politician or powerful lawyer is admired.
Examples of tough women at leadership levels abound from Pelosi and Palin, Secretary of State Clinton, Germany’s Merkel, England’s former Thatcher, and even our own local Suzanne Kosmas and Dorothy Hukill. These are the women I use as role models for my daughters, the ladies who have proven with hard work and determination, regardless of gender, they can rise and chase dreams. Unfortunately, more Americans uphold Lohan, Spears, and Snooki. It appears there is more regard for pop stars void of opinion and intellect, lacking morals, values, and ethics, but high on scandal, promiscuity, and even criminal activity. Successful women find themselves mocked and maligned, like Sarah Palin. What woman serves as a better role model than Palin, who spoke out locally, rose through the ranks and became governor, and the second female vice presidential candidate in American history? It’s easy to disparage people we don’t know, calling them trailer trash, a b—ch, or reference lipstick on a pig. If dislike is driven by disagreement over issues, then debate, but don’t make it personal
Last week I encountered a woman I previously knew; a very attractive successful vice president of a national company. Ironically, her reputation is one of being a “total b—ch”. This prompted me to wonder why people feel intimidated by successful women whereas I have always been attracted to and admired successful intelligent women. Personally, my wife LeeAnn is beautiful, has worked as a financial controller for a Ross Perot company with numerous people reporting to her, and is now attaining her CPA. Similarly, my girlfriend prior to LeeAnn turned heads and is vice president of a national healthcare company. But yet, both are denigrated by people who do not know them. Having two daughters I feel hypersensitive to this issue as I encourage and push them to achieve more, challenging them academically. However, their friends, and even some family, fail to support and push them.
Sadly, it appears many Americans regard successful, attractive women as enemies; often denigrated with the “b” or “c” words. A woman relegated to part-time work or a stereotypical female job finds herself held in higher regard, but it seems these women are the first to insult those who have found success. Among males, the opposite is true. A tough, good looking guy rising to a top-management position, becoming a politician or powerful lawyer is admired.
Examples of tough women at leadership levels abound from Pelosi and Palin, Secretary of State Clinton, Germany’s Merkel, England’s former Thatcher, and even our own local Suzanne Kosmas and Dorothy Hukill. These are the women I use as role models for my daughters, the ladies who have proven with hard work and determination, regardless of gender, they can rise and chase dreams. Unfortunately, more Americans uphold Lohan, Spears, and Snooki. It appears there is more regard for pop stars void of opinion and intellect, lacking morals, values, and ethics, but high on scandal, promiscuity, and even criminal activity. Successful women find themselves mocked and maligned, like Sarah Palin. What woman serves as a better role model than Palin, who spoke out locally, rose through the ranks and became governor, and the second female vice presidential candidate in American history? It’s easy to disparage people we don’t know, calling them trailer trash, a b—ch, or reference lipstick on a pig. If dislike is driven by disagreement over issues, then debate, but don’t make it personal
Sunday, August 22, 2010
RSS Feeds
Last week I wrote about how I was learning to exploit more value from my iPod. Today is an unintended part II to that article.
Everyday I read about 15-20 web sites, a lot of blogs and news. There are some authors like James Howard Kunstler that I don't visit that often. Thus, I miss his weekly blog. Additionally, a friend of mine just started a new column and instead of waiting for an email I wanted to get the updates immediately. Lastly, I want to read this on my iPod Touch (or iPhone or iPad as appropriate). Even this blog has RSS feeds, but I had no idea how to use them.
With a little work this morning I have once again overwhelmed myself with information and news, but I can manage it much better. Far far easier than visiting web sites everyday.
Here is what you need to do:
1) Select a reader. Quite honestly, Google Reader is intuitive and easy. If you already have a blogspot account, gmail, or another google service you can log in with your existing password and username.
2) Subscribe to fees. The easiest way to do this is go to the web site you desire and look for the "RSS" button. One of two things will happen:
a) You will see a list of possible readers. Pick the Google button and the web site will take you back to your google reader account. Accept the subscription.
b) Alternatively, you will find yourself on a page that most likely is the web address and has /feed/ in the title. Copy this address from the index bar (highlight the web address and press ctrl+c). Return to the google reader account window. Push the "Add subscription" button and paste the link.
Now you have a reader and feeds. Depending on how you use your PC will impact how often you read and see the updated news. No more visiting various web sites!
3) iPhone/iPod Touch/iPad - I have an iPod Touch and read news every day. I found a great application called "Reeder". Visit the Apple iTunes store and download this program. It costs $2.99 and is easy to use. There are other iPhone apps, but I downloaded this and it linked to my google reader account effortlessly. I see each feed as a folder heading and can read through the news.
Last week I wrote about how I was learning to exploit more value from my iPod. Today is an unintended part II to that article.
Everyday I read about 15-20 web sites, a lot of blogs and news. There are some authors like James Howard Kunstler that I don't visit that often. Thus, I miss his weekly blog. Additionally, a friend of mine just started a new column and instead of waiting for an email I wanted to get the updates immediately. Lastly, I want to read this on my iPod Touch (or iPhone or iPad as appropriate). Even this blog has RSS feeds, but I had no idea how to use them.
With a little work this morning I have once again overwhelmed myself with information and news, but I can manage it much better. Far far easier than visiting web sites everyday.
Here is what you need to do:
1) Select a reader. Quite honestly, Google Reader is intuitive and easy. If you already have a blogspot account, gmail, or another google service you can log in with your existing password and username.
2) Subscribe to fees. The easiest way to do this is go to the web site you desire and look for the "RSS" button. One of two things will happen:
a) You will see a list of possible readers. Pick the Google button and the web site will take you back to your google reader account. Accept the subscription.
b) Alternatively, you will find yourself on a page that most likely is the web address and has /feed/ in the title. Copy this address from the index bar (highlight the web address and press ctrl+c). Return to the google reader account window. Push the "Add subscription" button and paste the link.
Now you have a reader and feeds. Depending on how you use your PC will impact how often you read and see the updated news. No more visiting various web sites!
3) iPhone/iPod Touch/iPad - I have an iPod Touch and read news every day. I found a great application called "Reeder". Visit the Apple iTunes store and download this program. It costs $2.99 and is easy to use. There are other iPhone apps, but I downloaded this and it linked to my google reader account effortlessly. I see each feed as a folder heading and can read through the news.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Carbon Copy America
My wife and I came down off the mountain this weekend and visited “civilization” to engage in the most popular sport in America: leisure shopping. Visiting the Mall of Georgia is like visiting Altamonte Mall. The similarities start with traffic lights, waiting to make turns, localized strip malls with a variety of specialty stores, car dealers using balloons to lure naïve consumers, and franchised eateries overfeeding overweight patrons. My first inclination is to shop locally, like I did in New Smyrna at Coronado Hardware or eating at the Dolphin View, but lacking choices I was forced to head to the Mall.
My intent here is not to complain about the Mall, but to comment on willfulness to trade perceived success for lost identity. I have previously written about the “good old days”, circa 2006 during the boom, and also commented on the loss of small towns in my column, “Taking Back Roads.” At the end of our shopping expedition on Saturday my wife, LeeAnn, said, “we could be anywhere in America. Looking around the stores and architecture are no different here or in Altamonte Springs, Ft. Worth, or Minneapolis.” Her observation was spot on; we chose the economic path that brought our destruction and it started in the early 1990’s. Thinking back to the 1970s and 1980s, appliance and electronics stores were locally owned; Home Depot, Lowes, and Best Buy did not exist except in their original markets. Wal-Mart was a regional Arkansas chain, not a megastore found in every town in America. Even the Mall’s department stores appeared quirky to the out-of-state traveler as they represented decades old local businesses like Burdines, Daytons, Wanamakers, and Gimbels. And of course, the out parcels of Linens and Things, Old Navy, and Michaels did not exist.
In the 1990’s with easy access to money, a rapidly rising stock market, low barriers to brokerage services and do-it-yourself investment attitudes the economic boom erased our identity. Local architecture and business acquiesced to national franchises and bland buildings void of character delivering mass-produced Chinese merchandise meant to symbolize success to anonymous strangers. On a local level builders nationalized and did the same, trading character for mass production of McMansions with bathrooms larger than the prior generation’s living rooms. New Smyrna Beach and Cleveland, Georgia lag behind, but yet both claim progress by advancing box stores and abandoning local business heritage. Just push “Copy”, America has lost her character.
My wife and I came down off the mountain this weekend and visited “civilization” to engage in the most popular sport in America: leisure shopping. Visiting the Mall of Georgia is like visiting Altamonte Mall. The similarities start with traffic lights, waiting to make turns, localized strip malls with a variety of specialty stores, car dealers using balloons to lure naïve consumers, and franchised eateries overfeeding overweight patrons. My first inclination is to shop locally, like I did in New Smyrna at Coronado Hardware or eating at the Dolphin View, but lacking choices I was forced to head to the Mall.
My intent here is not to complain about the Mall, but to comment on willfulness to trade perceived success for lost identity. I have previously written about the “good old days”, circa 2006 during the boom, and also commented on the loss of small towns in my column, “Taking Back Roads.” At the end of our shopping expedition on Saturday my wife, LeeAnn, said, “we could be anywhere in America. Looking around the stores and architecture are no different here or in Altamonte Springs, Ft. Worth, or Minneapolis.” Her observation was spot on; we chose the economic path that brought our destruction and it started in the early 1990’s. Thinking back to the 1970s and 1980s, appliance and electronics stores were locally owned; Home Depot, Lowes, and Best Buy did not exist except in their original markets. Wal-Mart was a regional Arkansas chain, not a megastore found in every town in America. Even the Mall’s department stores appeared quirky to the out-of-state traveler as they represented decades old local businesses like Burdines, Daytons, Wanamakers, and Gimbels. And of course, the out parcels of Linens and Things, Old Navy, and Michaels did not exist.
In the 1990’s with easy access to money, a rapidly rising stock market, low barriers to brokerage services and do-it-yourself investment attitudes the economic boom erased our identity. Local architecture and business acquiesced to national franchises and bland buildings void of character delivering mass-produced Chinese merchandise meant to symbolize success to anonymous strangers. On a local level builders nationalized and did the same, trading character for mass production of McMansions with bathrooms larger than the prior generation’s living rooms. New Smyrna Beach and Cleveland, Georgia lag behind, but yet both claim progress by advancing box stores and abandoning local business heritage. Just push “Copy”, America has lost her character.
Monday, August 16, 2010
iPod Touch -- Making it better
I have had an iPod for well over a year and felt there were many more things I could do with it. Below I explain a few:
1) USB Drive
Apple failed and did not add native functionality for the iPod Touch for use as an external hard disk. After some work I found two applications that do this. On a good note, my 20GB of free space can now be used for storage. On the down side, there is no synchronization tool. Only manually copying. I will point out I chose a utility that uses the USB cable to copy. I wanted to drag and drop on the desktop.
iPhone Explorer
2) An eReader - PDF File Reader
About a year ago I got a book, 300 pages, in PDF format. Sure, I can read this using Adobe, but I wanted to take in on my iPod Touch. This took a little learning but it can be done.
First, you need iBooks from Apple. Go to the Apple Store and search for this FREE application. It is slick, looks like a bookshelf and will read PDF files.
Second, depending on the file size you MIGHT need to doctor the file. My PDF was too large so I had to download Calibre, a FREE utility that will convert PDF files to the epub format.
Not I can flip through this 300 page book, have book marks, and read it on my iPod Touch.
3) Home movies
This summer I bought a Kodak Playsport video camera. This thing is great, I can take it underwater, take pictures, or take movies. For me, it is easier to pull the card and plug into my computer to copy movies.
I tried dropping the videos (.mov) into my photos folder and also tried to add them in iTunes. To no avail. A little reading brought me to the root of the problem - I needed to convert the videos to the itunes format, m4v. This application is free, it worked, but until registered it leaves a watermark on the screen. AVS Video Converter
I have had an iPod for well over a year and felt there were many more things I could do with it. Below I explain a few:
1) USB Drive
Apple failed and did not add native functionality for the iPod Touch for use as an external hard disk. After some work I found two applications that do this. On a good note, my 20GB of free space can now be used for storage. On the down side, there is no synchronization tool. Only manually copying. I will point out I chose a utility that uses the USB cable to copy. I wanted to drag and drop on the desktop.
iPhone Explorer
2) An eReader - PDF File Reader
About a year ago I got a book, 300 pages, in PDF format. Sure, I can read this using Adobe, but I wanted to take in on my iPod Touch. This took a little learning but it can be done.
First, you need iBooks from Apple. Go to the Apple Store and search for this FREE application. It is slick, looks like a bookshelf and will read PDF files.
Second, depending on the file size you MIGHT need to doctor the file. My PDF was too large so I had to download Calibre, a FREE utility that will convert PDF files to the epub format.
Not I can flip through this 300 page book, have book marks, and read it on my iPod Touch.
3) Home movies
This summer I bought a Kodak Playsport video camera. This thing is great, I can take it underwater, take pictures, or take movies. For me, it is easier to pull the card and plug into my computer to copy movies.
I tried dropping the videos (.mov) into my photos folder and also tried to add them in iTunes. To no avail. A little reading brought me to the root of the problem - I needed to convert the videos to the itunes format, m4v. This application is free, it worked, but until registered it leaves a watermark on the screen. AVS Video Converter
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
King and Queen
Much ado was made last week regarding the Obama’s and their lavish travels. Our presidents have historically found themselves in a conflictingly awkward position, servants to the taxpayers, but yet head of state. With the press covering trips to Spain and Chicago in the same week, there was discussion regarding the cost to taxpayers by the major news networks. The criticism was not only domestic, but extended to Western newspapers overseas. Ms. Obama’s trip to Spain required a $140,000 in aircraft costs and nearly another $100,000 in security costs.
By comparison, many Americans found their life and opportunity worsening last week. Unemployment showed stagnant growth conditions, coming in twice as bad as predicted and including a downward revision for June. The USDA reported a record 40.8 million Americans received food stamps in June. My research showed in 2008 the number averaged 24.8 million, and a record 35 million were reported in September 2009. Three years have passed since the Great Recession started and trillions have been spent, but fundamentally America’s economy has remained on the brink of failure. Remember the fat-finger stock trade? Have you tried to get a loan or re-finance? Look at the number of homes for sale all around and try finding a buyer. Among other recent reports was Social Security is now operating in the red, approximately 28% of mortgages are underwater, Fannie Mae had losses and is seeking bailouts, and consumers continue to withdraw from spending.
Conservative news outlets have jumped on the bandwagon of criticizing Ms. Obama for her trip, especially while many Americans are suffering. But, before jumping to conclusions, the first question is whether the Obama’s travels are excessive compared to the last half dozen presidents. The Obama’s are taking care of us, according to them; maybe these two people are deserving of grand vacations, at taxpayer expense. The people of the Gulf of Mexico would have benefitted from the publicity and international focus Spain is enjoying, just as Ms. Obama touted in June. If I were advising the Obama’s I would suggest they learn humility, stop golfing and entertaining, quit campaigning, roll up their sleeves, and get to know America. The Obama’s need to come to my neighborhood and meet real, hardworking, hurting Americans; parents working overtime unable to afford $20 for a meal out. However, royalty never visits peasants.
Much ado was made last week regarding the Obama’s and their lavish travels. Our presidents have historically found themselves in a conflictingly awkward position, servants to the taxpayers, but yet head of state. With the press covering trips to Spain and Chicago in the same week, there was discussion regarding the cost to taxpayers by the major news networks. The criticism was not only domestic, but extended to Western newspapers overseas. Ms. Obama’s trip to Spain required a $140,000 in aircraft costs and nearly another $100,000 in security costs.
By comparison, many Americans found their life and opportunity worsening last week. Unemployment showed stagnant growth conditions, coming in twice as bad as predicted and including a downward revision for June. The USDA reported a record 40.8 million Americans received food stamps in June. My research showed in 2008 the number averaged 24.8 million, and a record 35 million were reported in September 2009. Three years have passed since the Great Recession started and trillions have been spent, but fundamentally America’s economy has remained on the brink of failure. Remember the fat-finger stock trade? Have you tried to get a loan or re-finance? Look at the number of homes for sale all around and try finding a buyer. Among other recent reports was Social Security is now operating in the red, approximately 28% of mortgages are underwater, Fannie Mae had losses and is seeking bailouts, and consumers continue to withdraw from spending.
Conservative news outlets have jumped on the bandwagon of criticizing Ms. Obama for her trip, especially while many Americans are suffering. But, before jumping to conclusions, the first question is whether the Obama’s travels are excessive compared to the last half dozen presidents. The Obama’s are taking care of us, according to them; maybe these two people are deserving of grand vacations, at taxpayer expense. The people of the Gulf of Mexico would have benefitted from the publicity and international focus Spain is enjoying, just as Ms. Obama touted in June. If I were advising the Obama’s I would suggest they learn humility, stop golfing and entertaining, quit campaigning, roll up their sleeves, and get to know America. The Obama’s need to come to my neighborhood and meet real, hardworking, hurting Americans; parents working overtime unable to afford $20 for a meal out. However, royalty never visits peasants.
Sunday, August 08, 2010
The View
It is amazing how two people can look at the same consideration and see two distinct things. Even a single feature can look different depending on the direction from which it is approached. I live next to a 3,200 foot mountain peak, Mt. Yonah, and admire its beauty every time I drive home. If I approach Mt. Yonah from the Northwest I see a gently rising tree covered mountain, rising majestically to the sky. However, approaching from the Southeast, to go home, the same mountain rises ominously with nearly vertical granite faces, stripped of any foliage and impossible to climb. Although this same peak is visible from miles around, the view and approach would change your perspective about climbing to the summit.
Politics, societal problems, and even relationships anecdotally reflect my mountain. Depending on the point of view taken to attack issues, problems can appear gradually solvable or insurmountable. For example, the oil spill in the Gulf can be viewed as an environmental tragedy or an engineering challenge. Chelsea Clinton’s wedding last weekend was hyped as the wedding of the century, but to the residents of Rhinebeck, New York it was a media frenzy and security nightmare. What has been lost in American debate today is the understanding that debate accommodates differing views; one is not necessarily right or wrong. I learned several years ago feelings cannot be argued, only facts. However, if you watch the news closely, and monitor political debate, arguments center on emotions, feelings, and perceptions, not facts.
Last week a federal judge issued an injunction against Arizona’s controversial immigration bill. This is a hot-button issue with differing views on how to solve a problem. I would argue what is missing is the discussion of the issue at hand. For example, Obama promised immigration reform, but after 19 months in office nothing has transpired leaving Arizona to deal with the issue and thus pushing a bill designed to move the issue to the spotlight. Armed with what I know, I could not possibly consider living in a border state due to the violence, costs, and breakdown in social order. However, I believe we should embrace people risking their lives to come to our country. What matters now is how we view the problem and work together to solve it; effective debate starts with understanding the view.
It is amazing how two people can look at the same consideration and see two distinct things. Even a single feature can look different depending on the direction from which it is approached. I live next to a 3,200 foot mountain peak, Mt. Yonah, and admire its beauty every time I drive home. If I approach Mt. Yonah from the Northwest I see a gently rising tree covered mountain, rising majestically to the sky. However, approaching from the Southeast, to go home, the same mountain rises ominously with nearly vertical granite faces, stripped of any foliage and impossible to climb. Although this same peak is visible from miles around, the view and approach would change your perspective about climbing to the summit.
Politics, societal problems, and even relationships anecdotally reflect my mountain. Depending on the point of view taken to attack issues, problems can appear gradually solvable or insurmountable. For example, the oil spill in the Gulf can be viewed as an environmental tragedy or an engineering challenge. Chelsea Clinton’s wedding last weekend was hyped as the wedding of the century, but to the residents of Rhinebeck, New York it was a media frenzy and security nightmare. What has been lost in American debate today is the understanding that debate accommodates differing views; one is not necessarily right or wrong. I learned several years ago feelings cannot be argued, only facts. However, if you watch the news closely, and monitor political debate, arguments center on emotions, feelings, and perceptions, not facts.
Last week a federal judge issued an injunction against Arizona’s controversial immigration bill. This is a hot-button issue with differing views on how to solve a problem. I would argue what is missing is the discussion of the issue at hand. For example, Obama promised immigration reform, but after 19 months in office nothing has transpired leaving Arizona to deal with the issue and thus pushing a bill designed to move the issue to the spotlight. Armed with what I know, I could not possibly consider living in a border state due to the violence, costs, and breakdown in social order. However, I believe we should embrace people risking their lives to come to our country. What matters now is how we view the problem and work together to solve it; effective debate starts with understanding the view.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Police State
Last week I came across a news article that left me feeling uneasy. For perspective, I read various news sites every day, everything from the New York Times, Washington Times, and even the Times UK. I look to CNN, Pravda, Huffington Post and Breitbart for a variety and balance of news. As you know, I have previously written about CCTV (Closed Circuit Television) and the invasion of cameras creating questionable civil rights questions. Additionally, we have seen the expansion of citizens using cameras to capture incredible moments on tape: plane crashes, auto accidents, tornadoes, and questionable arrests and police brutality. It is the last category that concerns me.
About six months ago I noticed a trend in some of the news articles I was reading: police were arresting those who videotape them! I came across these articles on fringe, strong civil liberties web sites commenting on states that were using outdated wiretap laws to prevent citizens from videotaping an arrest. Under this premise, the states require both parties to give consent. Of course, law enforcement was not consenting and instead threatening arrest if videotaping continued. Last week I saw a similar article, but this time it was carried by ABC news, Growing Number of Prosecutions for Videotaping the Police”, by Ray Sanchez (07/19/2010)“. The article describes cases in New Hampshire, Maryland, and Florida where wiretapping laws are used to arrest citizens as I described.
I believe law enforcement officers are employees of the public; ultimately they work for us. In countries like China, North Korea, the former USSR, and former East Germany the police worked for the government and were charged with watching citizens. In these countries law enforcement runs rampant with brutality, torture, and intimidation. I argue, like Florida’s governing laws, that operating in the sunshine eliminates these horrors. Like our right to bear arms, or speak freely, our rights to hold public government and law enforcement officers accountable is paramount to our personal safety.
What would have happened to Rodney King had news helicopters not caught his beating? As hard as I try, I cannot come up with a valid argument to justify preventing a citizen from videotaping his own arrest. When a law enforcement officer dons his uniform he is a servant of the public, not a Gestapo officer given free rein to operate in darkness with no one looking.
Videotaping Police
ACLU of PA Announces Settlement for Man Arrested for Videotaping Police Officers in Public
FAQ: Can I videotape?
Police Cuff Citizens for Videotaping
Teen Arrested for Videotaping Police
Boston Police charge those who videotape arrests
Police investigate Videotaped Arrest
NM Journalist Asserts His Rights
Police and Democracy
Jail Time for Videotaping Police
Last week I came across a news article that left me feeling uneasy. For perspective, I read various news sites every day, everything from the New York Times, Washington Times, and even the Times UK. I look to CNN, Pravda, Huffington Post and Breitbart for a variety and balance of news. As you know, I have previously written about CCTV (Closed Circuit Television) and the invasion of cameras creating questionable civil rights questions. Additionally, we have seen the expansion of citizens using cameras to capture incredible moments on tape: plane crashes, auto accidents, tornadoes, and questionable arrests and police brutality. It is the last category that concerns me.
About six months ago I noticed a trend in some of the news articles I was reading: police were arresting those who videotape them! I came across these articles on fringe, strong civil liberties web sites commenting on states that were using outdated wiretap laws to prevent citizens from videotaping an arrest. Under this premise, the states require both parties to give consent. Of course, law enforcement was not consenting and instead threatening arrest if videotaping continued. Last week I saw a similar article, but this time it was carried by ABC news, Growing Number of Prosecutions for Videotaping the Police”, by Ray Sanchez (07/19/2010)“. The article describes cases in New Hampshire, Maryland, and Florida where wiretapping laws are used to arrest citizens as I described.
I believe law enforcement officers are employees of the public; ultimately they work for us. In countries like China, North Korea, the former USSR, and former East Germany the police worked for the government and were charged with watching citizens. In these countries law enforcement runs rampant with brutality, torture, and intimidation. I argue, like Florida’s governing laws, that operating in the sunshine eliminates these horrors. Like our right to bear arms, or speak freely, our rights to hold public government and law enforcement officers accountable is paramount to our personal safety.
What would have happened to Rodney King had news helicopters not caught his beating? As hard as I try, I cannot come up with a valid argument to justify preventing a citizen from videotaping his own arrest. When a law enforcement officer dons his uniform he is a servant of the public, not a Gestapo officer given free rein to operate in darkness with no one looking.
Videotaping Police
ACLU of PA Announces Settlement for Man Arrested for Videotaping Police Officers in Public
FAQ: Can I videotape?
Police Cuff Citizens for Videotaping
Teen Arrested for Videotaping Police
Boston Police charge those who videotape arrests
Police investigate Videotaped Arrest
NM Journalist Asserts His Rights
Police and Democracy
Jail Time for Videotaping Police
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Blaming Others
Most weeks it is easy to write this column; I find a plethora of news and political stupidity that easily becomes fodder. Sometimes though, like this week, it becomes more difficult and I will ask for suggestions from friends. I was intrigued when my friend Bob suggested I write about the trend these days to blame others for our problems. In our short conversation I realized he was right, the whole idea of personal responsibility in America is gone. When I think about changes like this I always try to look back in time, through the eyes of my grandfather, to see how America has changed.
Examples abound regarding blaming others: Hurricane Katrina, Attention Deficit Disorder, Restless Leg Syndrome, liability litigation, Obama on Bush, and even the Toyota sudden acceleration. For example, one-hundred years ago if our children misbehaved they were disciplined, re-directed, and strong parenting was done; today we give them a pill. The same holds for new diseases, like Restless Leg Syndrome, heavily promoted by pharmaceutical companies and appearing weekly. The recent Toyota sudden acceleration claims were repudiated by the NTSB as driver error pushing the accelerator; I am sure the liability attorneys are profoundly disappointed.
Falling off a curb at a merchant, or falsely stepping in front of a car has grown into an entire industry. These attorneys do not go after millions, instead they seek a nominal amount, about $25k, from the defendants insurance company; just enough to make settling easier and better for the insurance company, but a cash cow for the law firms. Successful industries advertise; watch television or read billboards to see the proliferation of attorney’s offering to “help”. Hurricane Katrina was the ultimate blame game, as it appears the people of New Orleans had nothing to do with their decision to remain in the path of a Category 5 hurricane, and President Obama has continued that mantra by using the former President as his scapegoat at least ten times by my count in various speeches. My grandfather would have owned his failures and handled issues facing him, as I believe most people would have 100 years ago. Sadly, it is far easier to blame others, take a pill, and avoid personal responsibility. I wonder what our country will look like in another decade after blaming all of our problems on others.
Most weeks it is easy to write this column; I find a plethora of news and political stupidity that easily becomes fodder. Sometimes though, like this week, it becomes more difficult and I will ask for suggestions from friends. I was intrigued when my friend Bob suggested I write about the trend these days to blame others for our problems. In our short conversation I realized he was right, the whole idea of personal responsibility in America is gone. When I think about changes like this I always try to look back in time, through the eyes of my grandfather, to see how America has changed.
Examples abound regarding blaming others: Hurricane Katrina, Attention Deficit Disorder, Restless Leg Syndrome, liability litigation, Obama on Bush, and even the Toyota sudden acceleration. For example, one-hundred years ago if our children misbehaved they were disciplined, re-directed, and strong parenting was done; today we give them a pill. The same holds for new diseases, like Restless Leg Syndrome, heavily promoted by pharmaceutical companies and appearing weekly. The recent Toyota sudden acceleration claims were repudiated by the NTSB as driver error pushing the accelerator; I am sure the liability attorneys are profoundly disappointed.
Falling off a curb at a merchant, or falsely stepping in front of a car has grown into an entire industry. These attorneys do not go after millions, instead they seek a nominal amount, about $25k, from the defendants insurance company; just enough to make settling easier and better for the insurance company, but a cash cow for the law firms. Successful industries advertise; watch television or read billboards to see the proliferation of attorney’s offering to “help”. Hurricane Katrina was the ultimate blame game, as it appears the people of New Orleans had nothing to do with their decision to remain in the path of a Category 5 hurricane, and President Obama has continued that mantra by using the former President as his scapegoat at least ten times by my count in various speeches. My grandfather would have owned his failures and handled issues facing him, as I believe most people would have 100 years ago. Sadly, it is far easier to blame others, take a pill, and avoid personal responsibility. I wonder what our country will look like in another decade after blaming all of our problems on others.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Liberty – Part II
Last week I wrote about my trip to Washington, D.C. to celebrate Independence Day with my wife and children. As I traveled through our nation’s capital I saw references to freedom and liberty; celebrating our successful independence from England. Later in the week we journeyed to Williamsburg, VA and toured the Colonial Williamsburg settlement. Experiencing history again, the history I learned as a school child brought renewed appreciation to the freedom fight our forefathers faced.
I believe all men are equal in the desire for a single objective, freedom. Last year I wrote about the requirement and acceptance of taxation in trade from living in a civilized society. Similarly, our Revolutionary Heroes did not object to taxation, but to their loss of representation. In Boston the revolt began and soon the other colonies had to decide to whether to offer their support for independence. Like a child leaving home, these English subjects living in the colonies had never faced life alone and were heavily dependent on England. Facing this fear meant gaining the freedom to self-govern and envelop the spirit of the Magna Carta.
In Williamsburg, while sitting in the Courthouse I was treated to a speech and review of laws in 1770. Although subject to English law, the residents enjoyed many freedoms for which we now fight. For instance, all men were required to own a gun, and to not do so required a license for exemption. Licenses were required to do things outside the law, not those already guaranteed by the law. Today we seem to have traveled backward, requiring licenses to own guns, fish, drive a car, practice medicine, or even work as a beautician; none of which are against the law. It is this strange change, or incrementalism which silently erodes our freedom and steals our liberty.
Sadly, in my own lifetime I have seen my experience in airports change, bag searches at theme parks begin, and my newborn children required, by law, to get a social security card although he will not work for nearly two decades. “Freedom is a fragile thing and is never more than one generation away from extinction. It is not ours by inheritance; it must be fought for and defended constantly by each generation, for it comes only once to a people. Those who have known freedom and lost it, have never known it again." -- Ronald Reagan
Last week I wrote about my trip to Washington, D.C. to celebrate Independence Day with my wife and children. As I traveled through our nation’s capital I saw references to freedom and liberty; celebrating our successful independence from England. Later in the week we journeyed to Williamsburg, VA and toured the Colonial Williamsburg settlement. Experiencing history again, the history I learned as a school child brought renewed appreciation to the freedom fight our forefathers faced.
I believe all men are equal in the desire for a single objective, freedom. Last year I wrote about the requirement and acceptance of taxation in trade from living in a civilized society. Similarly, our Revolutionary Heroes did not object to taxation, but to their loss of representation. In Boston the revolt began and soon the other colonies had to decide to whether to offer their support for independence. Like a child leaving home, these English subjects living in the colonies had never faced life alone and were heavily dependent on England. Facing this fear meant gaining the freedom to self-govern and envelop the spirit of the Magna Carta.
In Williamsburg, while sitting in the Courthouse I was treated to a speech and review of laws in 1770. Although subject to English law, the residents enjoyed many freedoms for which we now fight. For instance, all men were required to own a gun, and to not do so required a license for exemption. Licenses were required to do things outside the law, not those already guaranteed by the law. Today we seem to have traveled backward, requiring licenses to own guns, fish, drive a car, practice medicine, or even work as a beautician; none of which are against the law. It is this strange change, or incrementalism which silently erodes our freedom and steals our liberty.
Sadly, in my own lifetime I have seen my experience in airports change, bag searches at theme parks begin, and my newborn children required, by law, to get a social security card although he will not work for nearly two decades. “Freedom is a fragile thing and is never more than one generation away from extinction. It is not ours by inheritance; it must be fought for and defended constantly by each generation, for it comes only once to a people. Those who have known freedom and lost it, have never known it again." -- Ronald Reagan
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