Crisis Preparation

I have read a lot about preparation for TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It) lately. However, I think there are other issues of greater concern than that which one must consider. I am repeating, changing, and re-writing some of what I have read. But, I go back to the root of what I have always known; preparation is about facing a threat. A threat can be measured three: probability of occurrence, intensity of destruction, and duration. A matrix should be made to consider the likelihood of a threat, where you might be during the occurrence, and what preparations should be made.

Supplies need consideration next. Preparation for supplies can be broken into several categories. Once the categories are identified a second stage of analysis must be completed – do you require mobility or will this preparation be to hunker down and stay in one location?

I feel most people fail to make any preparations in their lives because it is overwhelming to analyze “what-if” scenarios and planning around them. At the same time, ridicule of preparations is easy due to the old stereotypes of bomb-shelter fanatics, in the woods survivalists, and hippies living in communes off the grid. Ironically, these are the people that the unprepared will flee to.

Living in New Smyrna Beach, Florida I constantly faced a hurricane threat, but yet, like many friends and neighbors, brushed off this threat. I felt I could go to Wal-Mart, Lowes, or Home Depot and retrieve what I needed on demand. Although not as destructive as a ground-zero events like Katrina I faced three hurricanes in six weeks time. We faced a long duration of inconvenience – no credit card machines, gasoline shortages, lack of groceries, building materials shortages, and no ice. I had friends without electricity for 10 days. I could not locate a chainsaw chain to remove and cut trees. There was no ice available to keep food safe because there was no electricity. Gas stations were closed due to lack of electricity, the pumps would not work and they had no credit card machines. All of the foods spoiled in the grocery store meat and frozen sections. Thus, they were forced to close to clean up their stores and no groceries were available. This was a modern crisis of long duration.

Events like Katrina, 9/11, the Northridge earthquake, and spring floods make headlines. However, watching a crisis on the evening news is entirely different than living through it. One side of 9/11 often forgotten was the travelers stranded away from home – if you had boarded a plane on 9/10/2001 and traveled across the country for business you suddenly found yourself stranded without a way to return home. There was a sense of suspicion in the country and finding yourself stuck as an outsider with only business clothes to wear could create problems. Fortunately, the banking system stayed intact and credit card machines were not shut off. Had the financial industry been questioned, cash would have been required just to eat, pay hotel bills, and get new clothing. In this case it was not a significant event for those away from New York but an event of extreme inconvenience. Again, even telecommunications worked, but it is not hard to imagine the government shutting telecom to prevent communications among terrorists. In this case contacting family would not have been feasible, lending to panic among those stranded away from home.

Copyright (c) 2009 John R. Nelson. All Rights Reserved.