Showing posts with label economic failure. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economic failure. Show all posts
Sunday, June 24, 2012
Hang 'em
Hang ‘em (12/7/2011)
Americans tend to bury their heads in the sand when it comes to government. Sadly a majority cannot name the Vice President, and certainly not the Secretary of State or the Speaker of the House. Thus, this is the reason for referring to “sheeple” or “zombies” to stereotype the average citizen. It seems the career politicians understand this and manipulate the masses for their own gain. The latest failure of the ruling-elite is to come up with budget cuts for the next ten years. The proposed method of manipulation to make this happen was so appalling every member of the House and Senate should be publicly hung for treason against the people.
Over the last years, under Obama and prior to the Republicans winning the House majority, Congress has failed to submit a budget. This year with new leadership the Republican majority made a valiant attempt but was blocked by Democrats in the Senate from approving the budget. The new “super-committee” was created to break through the deadlock and find $1 trillion in cuts. What is more important to note was they were tasked with finding $1 trillion in savings over 10 years, starting in 2013. A simple task, right? $1 trillion over 10 years works out to $100 billion per year and the current budget is approximately $3.7 trillion in expenditures (outlays) and $2.6 trillion in revenues (incomes=taxes). A $100 billion cut per year is 2.7% of the total expenditures. Sadly, these ass-clowns running our country could not come to an agreement, but why should they? There are no consequences!
Similarly, on November 18, 2011 Congress had a chance once again to demonstrate the interests of the country and the people were more important than their bipartisan bickering. Voting primarily along party lines the proposal for an amendment to the constitution failed to pass. Currently 49 states have some type of balanced budget amendment. Interestingly, the federal government has only balanced the budget six times in the last 50 years, four times while Bill Clinton was president.
It is easy to ignore the actions of Congress as most people yawn over politics and turn on a Sunday afternoon football game. However, this past week the Federal debt hit a post WW2 high of debt to GDP (Total Debt/Total GDP) equal to 99.5%. In the next two weeks that number will move to triple digits and will not stop increasing. Interest rates are artificially low and any crisis remotely similar to Europe will drive the cost of treasury bonds higher therefore adding to debt faster. At the same time an economic malaise engulfs the country and GDP based on the consumerism of the threatened American shopper is likely to remain relatively flat. Congress is the only entity to change the course of America right now and it must make tough decisions to rein in spending. Arguments are taking place over taxes, but spending is the first, and easiest, place to cut. For instance: foreign aid, arts, museums, the Department of Interior, Department of Education, Department of Energy, and closing military bases overseas.
The ass-clowns running Congress want to ensure they have a luxurious lifestyle based on a taxpayer funded income and pension for life instead of making tough decisions best for future generations. I assert today’s Congress is committing treason as they have become the domestic enemies of our country by willfully and knowingly harming our credit rating, impairing national security through reckless spending, and stealing the wealth of future generations.
Saturday, July 16, 2011
Small Town Destruction - Part II
Small Town Destruction – Part II
In my first column addressing the demise of small towns I pinpointed three items I believe are consistent in the recipe for disaster: highway bypasses taking traffic around town, national retailers undermining local merchants, and outdated alcohol ordinances preventing thriving dining. Objective and specific, I believe the slow withering of communities can be avoided and in no way do I question the emotional appeal of charm or the fabric of the community. Expanding further on the recipe to create sustainability several more key strategies, in addition to the original three, can be implemented.
First, tax policy can drive business toward town center through a reverse property tax or by creating community redevelopment districts. Traditionally property taxes are lower in the suburbs, by reversing the millage rate growth is encouraged toward town and away from the outskirts.
Second, mixed-use and re-use are critical to a thriving downtown. For example, a national drugstore or bookstore may come to town, but in place of a new steel and concrete structure replicated nationwide, require use of existing buildings and rehabilitation. As an avid fan of James Howard Kunstler, I must agree with his descriptions of “programming” the content inside the building versus the “container” that makes up the structure. A drugstore could operate from a 100-year old building, thus preserving the unique character of individual towns. Mixed-use and appropriate zoning would allow shopkeepers, or tenants, to live above shops in town center increasing rent and covering fixed costs for the building owner.
Third, discretionary consumerism should be incidental to the town center, not the primary focus. In a struggling economy counting on the luxury purchase of boutique goods will not save businesses. I propose keeping banking, postal, personal care, hardware, and grocery near town center instead of spreading these key needs to faceless strip malls located in yet to be developed suburbs. Consuming luxuries will follow naturally in a shopping district providing necessities.
Lastly, zoning and permit approvals should look toward the future by asking what will be left of this “container” if the business closes or moves. For example one national retailer is notorious for abandoning functional stores strongly anchoring numerous small businesses in favor of trading up to a generic “superstore” version located on cheaper land and incentivized by property tax reductions. Once left behind no other business is capable of using the commercial square footage and the nearby businesses that benefitted from the anchor fold, vandalism grows, and the entire shopping center becomes a permanent blight on the community.
Driving through the rural southeast I see success and failure from the window of my car. A thriving community is easily observed versus the shuttered, empty storefronts of a now dead town. I can’t stop and ask about the “charm” or the “fabric” of the community, but I can see the faces of those pondering what happened and why the town died compared to the success of the community next door.
In my first column addressing the demise of small towns I pinpointed three items I believe are consistent in the recipe for disaster: highway bypasses taking traffic around town, national retailers undermining local merchants, and outdated alcohol ordinances preventing thriving dining. Objective and specific, I believe the slow withering of communities can be avoided and in no way do I question the emotional appeal of charm or the fabric of the community. Expanding further on the recipe to create sustainability several more key strategies, in addition to the original three, can be implemented.
First, tax policy can drive business toward town center through a reverse property tax or by creating community redevelopment districts. Traditionally property taxes are lower in the suburbs, by reversing the millage rate growth is encouraged toward town and away from the outskirts.
Second, mixed-use and re-use are critical to a thriving downtown. For example, a national drugstore or bookstore may come to town, but in place of a new steel and concrete structure replicated nationwide, require use of existing buildings and rehabilitation. As an avid fan of James Howard Kunstler, I must agree with his descriptions of “programming” the content inside the building versus the “container” that makes up the structure. A drugstore could operate from a 100-year old building, thus preserving the unique character of individual towns. Mixed-use and appropriate zoning would allow shopkeepers, or tenants, to live above shops in town center increasing rent and covering fixed costs for the building owner.
Third, discretionary consumerism should be incidental to the town center, not the primary focus. In a struggling economy counting on the luxury purchase of boutique goods will not save businesses. I propose keeping banking, postal, personal care, hardware, and grocery near town center instead of spreading these key needs to faceless strip malls located in yet to be developed suburbs. Consuming luxuries will follow naturally in a shopping district providing necessities.
Lastly, zoning and permit approvals should look toward the future by asking what will be left of this “container” if the business closes or moves. For example one national retailer is notorious for abandoning functional stores strongly anchoring numerous small businesses in favor of trading up to a generic “superstore” version located on cheaper land and incentivized by property tax reductions. Once left behind no other business is capable of using the commercial square footage and the nearby businesses that benefitted from the anchor fold, vandalism grows, and the entire shopping center becomes a permanent blight on the community.
Driving through the rural southeast I see success and failure from the window of my car. A thriving community is easily observed versus the shuttered, empty storefronts of a now dead town. I can’t stop and ask about the “charm” or the “fabric” of the community, but I can see the faces of those pondering what happened and why the town died compared to the success of the community next door.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
July 4th 2011
July 4th 2011 (6/29/2011)
Last July 4th I was in Washington, D.C. with my children and wife to watch the nation’s fireworks show. It was a moving experience to visit the Jefferson and Lincoln Memorials, see the Washington Monument, and more importantly to trek through the National Archives to see the Declaration of Independence and Constitution first-hand. In the last 12 months there has been a political shift in the House, political scandals, the death of Osama Bin Laden, and wars started in Libya and now Yemen. Last July 4th gas prices averaged $2.72 versus $3.70 this year, more Americans are on food stamps than ever before – 13% from last year, and housing prices have dropped more than in the Great Depression – down another 5% from last year. With bad numbers at home things must be getting better abroad, but that is far from what is occurring. The European Union appears to be entering a new crisis ignited by Greece and the Japanese earthquake is showing how desperate governments put pride before safety.
July 4th is celebration of the events of the summer of 1776 and the proclamations debated in Philadelphia in July to declare independence from the British. The two statements, “all men are created equal” and “Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness” are idolized around the world as symbolic of the freedom we have. It was September 17, 1787 that gave us the America we enjoy today; the signing of the Constitution and Bill of Rights. It did take nearly another 18 months to ratify the document, but the America I know came from the forward thinking of our early statesmen.
Many argue the Constitution should evolve with our times. In fairness I must wonder whether a document written to govern 4 million and land east of the Mississippi River where communication was measured in weeks was meant for 250 million citizens, 3000 miles shore to shore, and instantaneous access to all information available in the world. I think it is important to understand from where we came and reflect on the premise of design for a country born of hope out of fear of tyranny. Although our economy is in the toilet and more Americans than ever rely on the government dole to make ends meet, America is still a far better country than most. The visions for a strong republic and classic liberalism philosophies feel like they are fading away. As you watch fireworks this weekend, contemplate life 235 years ago and the excitement and fear in Philadelphia of starting a new country.
Last July 4th I was in Washington, D.C. with my children and wife to watch the nation’s fireworks show. It was a moving experience to visit the Jefferson and Lincoln Memorials, see the Washington Monument, and more importantly to trek through the National Archives to see the Declaration of Independence and Constitution first-hand. In the last 12 months there has been a political shift in the House, political scandals, the death of Osama Bin Laden, and wars started in Libya and now Yemen. Last July 4th gas prices averaged $2.72 versus $3.70 this year, more Americans are on food stamps than ever before – 13% from last year, and housing prices have dropped more than in the Great Depression – down another 5% from last year. With bad numbers at home things must be getting better abroad, but that is far from what is occurring. The European Union appears to be entering a new crisis ignited by Greece and the Japanese earthquake is showing how desperate governments put pride before safety.
July 4th is celebration of the events of the summer of 1776 and the proclamations debated in Philadelphia in July to declare independence from the British. The two statements, “all men are created equal” and “Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness” are idolized around the world as symbolic of the freedom we have. It was September 17, 1787 that gave us the America we enjoy today; the signing of the Constitution and Bill of Rights. It did take nearly another 18 months to ratify the document, but the America I know came from the forward thinking of our early statesmen.
Many argue the Constitution should evolve with our times. In fairness I must wonder whether a document written to govern 4 million and land east of the Mississippi River where communication was measured in weeks was meant for 250 million citizens, 3000 miles shore to shore, and instantaneous access to all information available in the world. I think it is important to understand from where we came and reflect on the premise of design for a country born of hope out of fear of tyranny. Although our economy is in the toilet and more Americans than ever rely on the government dole to make ends meet, America is still a far better country than most. The visions for a strong republic and classic liberalism philosophies feel like they are fading away. As you watch fireworks this weekend, contemplate life 235 years ago and the excitement and fear in Philadelphia of starting a new country.
Thursday, September 02, 2010
It Will Get Worse -Be Prepared and Take Care of Yourself
12/28/2008 – by John Nelson (G8REngineer@yahoo.com)
I originally wrote this during the Christmas Holiday of 2008. Since I reference this paper in my blog, Economic Recovery? I wanted to post it here.--------------------------
My predictions for 2009 and 2010 are below. I felt compelled to put this together because I have shared these thoughts with my wife and many friends. I am bothered because I see a trend in daily newspapers and news programs to report with a degree of optimism, and then with surprise, when the news is worse than they had first reported. But, I keep finding the news is not worse than I expected.
As this year has gone by I have been concerned by current events as compared to history. Our government has bailed out defense contractors and other private companies before. In the 1930’s, the press and government denied what was taking place, but yet we have the benefit of history to know how bad things were. Today there is a certain level of optimism by many people and I hear comments like, “we are Americans and we always pull through.” While that statement may be true, I feel concern to blind acceptance that things are always going to be ok. Throughout this article I make references to natural disasters and other external events. I feel today’s economic issues are similar in that external forces are going to impact individual lives. If you ascertain nothing else from this writing I hope it is that the most significant economic changes in decades are currently occurring and preparing for the worst possible outcome will aid you in dealing with that possibility. Like all predictions or theories on trends, I may be wrong about the severity, it may be better or worse, or about the timing, events may come sooner or later. Regardless, I hope to convey concern and suggest preparation.
First, I want to provide some background information. I do not have cable television, I do not watch local news, and I do not read newspapers. On a daily and weekly basis I gather my news and opinions from the following sources:
Daily
• Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com) – I first review world markets, particularly Asia and Europe just prior to going to bed and when I first wake. Second, the news wire provided here is far superior to any other source available
• Drudge Report (http://www.drudgereport.com) – a great link to numerous worldwide news articles
• Peak Oil (http://www.peakoil.com) - a link to various energy, climate change, policy, and other news articles
• Kirk Report (http://www.kirkreport.com) – Kirk is a day trader and offers stock information. But, he also links to a huge number of financial articles and opinions focusing on Fed and other central bank policies
• Economic Populist (http://www.economicpopulist.org) – Average people’s opinions about what is currently taking place. Of most interest are the specifics of research including graphs, data, charts and details to defend positions. Short articles, highly informative.
• Seeking Alpha (http://www.seekingalpha.com) – Similar to Economic Populist
• Yahoo Finance Home Page (http://finance.yahoo.com/) – What the average person sees for headlines
• NBC Nightly News (Podcast) – download video each day and watch following morning
• CNBC Fast Money (Podcast) – download video each day and watch the following morning
• BBC Global News (Podcast) – download and usually listen the next day
Weekly
• Kunstler Cast (Podcast) – James Howard Kunstler weekly podcast. Focus is on the end of suburbia due to changes with fossil fuels
• Bob’s Gold Price Column (http://goldprice.org/bob) – what the doom and gloomers think about gold and inflation
• Matt Simmons (http://www.simmons.com) – an energy expert
Change is taking place around us. If you had told me ten years ago that I might find myself living in a situation where I would not have power for 5-10 days, not be able to go to the grocery store to buy food – especially refrigerated items, I would find lines at gas stations, or buildings around me would be boarded up taking on a third world look, I would have laughed! However, I have lived through that situation in the summer of 2004 in New Smyrna Beach due to the hurricanes Charley, Frances, and Jean. From that experience I re-evaluated what it meant to be prepared. I thought I had everything I needed to survive: a couple of gallons of water, a bow saw, candles and a few flashlights. I learned how naïve I was. Since then, I have added a generator, chain saw and spare chains, lanterns, camping gear, stockpiles of gasoline each June, regular testing of the generator, and many other items.
Am I crazy or am I prudently prepared? Any resident of the state of Florida who does not keep minimum supplies is living in a state of denial. Other disasters and events have struck in the last 25 years in the United States and elsewhere – how prepared would you be to take care of your family?
• Northridge Earthquake
• Hurricane’s Katrina, Charley, Andrew, Hugo, Floyd, etc
• Coal Ash Levee break in Tennessee
• Devastating tornadoes
• Mount St. Helen’s
• Christmas Tsunami in Indonesia
• Rogue wave – Daytona Beach 1996 (or so)
• Springtime flooding in the Midwest
• Terrorist attacks of 9/11/2001
• Rodney King riots
• Heat wave in Europe killing hundreds in France
• War in Sarajevo, a beautiful Olympic city
• Cholera outbreaks in Africa, 2008
My point is disasters and upheavals occur regularly, and without warning. Our ability to take care of ourselves is what matters in each case. One need only picture scenes from the news of how Hurricane Katrina victims responded versus the same, significant, devastation from Hurricane Charley in Punta Gorda, Florida and the importance of proper and prudent preparation becomes apparent. More importantly, self-sufficiency and the ability to survive without reliance on others or civil authorities is incredibly apparent.
Most citizens in the United States have lost the ability to think and be self-sufficient for themselves. Take an automobile owner’s manual from the 1960’s and compare it to today, 40 years later. My 1967 Mustang has details on lubricating the chassis, changing a tire, performing valve adjustments, and other maintenance. Today’s owners manual states the warranty will be voided if the work is not performed by an authorized service center. I would assert the average person, especially Generation X or Y, will call roadside assistance and wait 90 minutes to have a tire changed instead of taking 10 minutes and performing the work themselves. Furthermore, if food becomes an issue of concern I believe most citizens will be at a loss. They will not know how to grow or kill food due to the basic belief that food comes from the grocery store. I had a friend share his concerns about the differences today versus the Great Depression – in the 30’s he feels a person would have given his place in a food line to another out of kindness and sacrifice. Today, he feels your life is at risk due to the selfishness of most people and their inability to survive without assistance.
One problem society seems to face is forgetting our history. As recently as summer 2008 gasoline prices were over $4.00/gallon. Behaviors were changing: scooter and motorcycle riding was up, SUV’s purchases declined catastrophically, people moved closer to work or considered changing jobs to reduce commutes, trips were combined, leisure travel was eliminated, and overall there was a general trend toward conservation. In 1974, due to political events, Americans had to ration gasoline resulting in huge shortages. Odd and even days were used to determine purchases and none could be made on Sunday’s. An immediate move toward smaller cars was made. To a lesser extent, the same problems arose in the early 1980’s and panic over dependence on oil again ensued.
During 2008, many newsworthy events have taken place, but without the benefit of seeing them all at once it is hard to imagine the economic and societal decay taking place around us:
• Rice and flour shortages on the west coast as Asian populations understood shortages oversees
• Rising global food prices due to US policies on ethanol
• Gas shortages in the Southeast US due to supply problems after hurricanes
• Over a dozen airlines went into bankruptcy or out of business
• Major brand stores went bankrupt (Steak n Ale, Circuit City, Linens and Things, etc)
• More than 170 banks failed as of 12/1/2008
• Christmas holiday spending was the lowest in 40 years
• Year over year housing price decline of 13%
• Unemployment claims are at their highest in 25 years
• Diminishing new job opportunities, compounding unemployment problems
• Dow Jones high of 14,000 in October 2007, low of 7570 in November 2008 – 45% erasure of value
• 1 out of 10 mortgages is in default or behind on payments
• Rising defaults on credit cards and car loans
Throughout the year, news sources have reported events with an element of denial or ultimately surprise when the data become available. Just this week, on 12/26/08 I heard the following reported on Fox News Network:
“Retailers were surprised at the worse drop in holiday sales in over 40 years.”
They went on to report possible reasons such as: there were 6 less shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, a holiday snowstorm that kept consumers away from malls. The comical reporting came next: some consumers may be concerned about job loss and not spending as much, credit cards are maxed out and no new credit is available. Last but not least, they reported that the economy of the United States is consumer based and that the total GDP – the production of all products and services – is 70% consumerism. Thus, without the citizens consuming the economy is grinding to a halt. ‘They’ need to force ‘us’ to start consuming.
Our problem as a country and with our current economic situation is we do not make anything that anyone else wants. We make money and recycle it within our own borders. Thus, growth is a fantasy based on a false reality. The best example is real estate over the last six years; the rapid growth had nothing to do with a true increase in value due to supply and demand. Instead, the easy availability of credit perpetuated a debt-based drive toward home ownership where prior lending standard required 20% down (leveraging of 5:1) now allowed 5% down (leveraging 20:1). Finally, these standards were reduced to 0% or even -5% down – the equivalent of infinite leveraging. This was a house of cards doomed to collapse. During this time, the media constantly reported that housing prices would recover within a three to six months. This took place throughout late 2007 and all through 2008.
I had to set the background for where we have been before I felt I could make predictions on where we are going. My synopsis is below with a predictive narrative and finally recommendations to plan for the next 2-3 years:
• Housing – there will be no recovery in housing before the end of 2010. Housing prices in some areas inflated as much as 2%/month (24% per annum). Historically, housing rise at a rate equal to or just above inflation. Thus, it will take 10-15 years to work back to the 2006 highs. This is compounded further by an inventory of 4 million homes for sale when historic inventories are between 2 and 2.5 million. Last but not least, lending is not available to purchase homes with debt.
• Credit – Consumers will not have credit readily available until late 2009 or early 2010. Our consumption based economy will remain frozen until the spending engine can restart.
• Equity Markets – The Dow and S&P500 remain over valued. Current estimates of average earnings for the S&P are about $55. Thus, the S&P is trading on a forward multiplier of about 18-20. Analysts have consistently overvalued earnings and multipliers throughout 2008. Many blue-chip, dividend paying stocks are trading closer to a multiplier of 7-10. Historic norms are 14-15. Thus, using a multiplier of 10, the S&P should be at 550.
• Currency – The Fed has printed huge sums of monies. Taxpayers generally pay about $1 trillion per year in federal income taxes. In the last 12 months Congress and the Fed have promised about $7 trillion in bail outs, stimulus, and balance sheet increases. As large as the numbers are, a huge deflationary move has taken place due to the erasure of debt, thus offsetting some of the severity of the inflationary monetary policies. If other governments reduce lending rates and increase currencies, the dollar will not be devalued. However, inflation is inevitable.
• Oil and Energy – Oil has plunged to the mid-$30s from a high of $147/bbl in July 2008. Commodity markets tend to overshoot both directions to the high side and the low side while supply and demand realign. The issue with oil is not one that we are going to have no oil. Instead, the marginal cost to produce each subsequent barrel of oil is higher than the preceding barrel. This is the root concept of Peak Oil; supply will not keep pace with demand. Hubbert’s peak in the early 1970’s in the United States is well-documented and the same will apply to world supply and demand. During the peak there will be wild oscillations in prices, supply, and demand. We are at the beginning of the peak and experiencing the swings.
• Climatic Change – the Green lobby is promoting huge expenditures due to perceived global warming. Regardless of political views, climatic change appears to be taking place. The summer Artic ice in 2008 melted at a rate that allowed transit across the polar ice cap from North America to Asia and Europe that had not been possible due to being previously frozen for the last thousand years. Plants not exposed for a thousand years appeared this summer. The Greenland Ice shelf is melting at an unprecedented rate and the risk of a significant piece sliding into the ocean is increasing daily. There is less snow and ice to reflect sunlight causing a possible natural exponential warming trend that can not be reduced. Salinity values in the North Atlantic are changing, thus impacting the flow of the gulf stream and the natural cooling process in the northern hemisphere. These changes may be normal on a geological time scale which we can not measure or they may be due to increases in carbon in the atmosphere driven by man made changes in the last 150 years. Regardless, they appear to be taking place at a significant rate. This climatic change will impact coast cities, farming communities, water supplies, and world hunger.
• Geopolitical Issues – The middle-east remains an area of concern with religious based hatred of western civilizations being a catalyst for terrorism and oil policy changes. Israel has ramped up hostilities in Gaza Strip and India and Pakistan are both nuclear powers with increasing hostilities. Russia is establishing herself again as a world power, particularly with an interest on controlling energy and pipelines feeding Europe.
• Politics in the United States – A new, inexperienced president will try to create policies to save the country as he promised during the campaigns. At the same time, the House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, has a strong liberal agenda that she believes she can now accomplish including: union supported legislation, national health care, increased taxes and wealthy producers, and a general move to a more socialized country. President Obama will work to pass legislation to make owning firearms more difficult, most likely through taxation on ammunition or illegality of personally possessing ammunition like Switzerland successfully implemented in 2007. He will try to create 3 million jobs, but that will not impact the economy for 5-7 years. He will support another stimulus package and saving the auto makers, moves that will further add to our debts.
In 2009, I see a temporary stock market rally based on the euphoria of a new president and false confidence that he can implement programs that will save the country and the average person without significant ownership or pain on their part. The House will pass another stimulus package which will not stimulate the economy as consumers hoard cash out of fear of losing their jobs. The president will be tested by events in the middle-east that will ultimately result in him appearing weak as nothing can be done to prevent the hostilities that have brewed for thousands of years. Throughout first quarter 2009 unemployment will continue to rise at unprecedented rates, reaching 10% by April and 12% by July. Housing prices will continue to decline as lending is not available. As unemployment increases, consumers will further reduce spending worried about their own future and possible job losses. Those that have a job will be reluctant to consider moving and will not purchase existing or new homes.
Company earnings will decline as consumer spending slows and worldwide spending continues to decline. The stock market will test new lows at 7000, 6000, and finally 5000 before settling into a period of flat trading between 5000 and 6500 for three to five years. The media will begin to report, with surprise, a rise in consumer prices and producer prices in late 2009 as inflation begins to take hold due to the failed policies of the Fed and Congress. Housing again will not restart because lending rates will increase from 5% back to rates not seen since the early 1980’s of 12-14%. Oil prices will also increase for three reasons: a devaluation of the dollar against world currencies, reduction in supply from OPEC to gain a foothold back to the $80/bbl level they desire, and the previously discussed middle-east tensions causing further supply concerns. Hyperinflation will take hold in early 2010 causing President Obama to sign executive orders for price controls on basic staples such as milk, bread, flour, and sugar. Ensuing hoarding and shortages will occur as citizens try to stockpile supplies in anticipation of shortages. Riots and general unrest, particularly in New Orleans, Detroit, Washington DC, and Los Angeles will be reported. These riots will occur because the average population has not been taught how to survive or be self-sufficient. Instead, they have been raised as consumers with all of the requirements of civility readily available at a nearby Wal-Mart.
My recommendations are to prudently prepare. Just like an impending storm in a coastal Florida city, preparation will be the key to survival. Some of these changes will happen slowly, others rapidly. Preparation may be as simple as just thinking about what might happen. Regardless, good preparation may involve purchasing or stockpiling goods not normally kept.
• Investments should be made over the short term with sales into rallies and purchases in the troughs
• Short the S&P with the SDS if the symbol goes below 80 (or 85) and sell when above 110. You can repeat this strategy many times
• Reduce debt – do not take on new debt
• Refinance at historically low interest rates. They will be at 10-15% in the future. Refinance below 5.25%. You will not see this again in your lifetime.
• Do not make debt based purchases when rates are rising or above 9%. The monthly cost of cash flow is 30% minimum
• Hoard cash – it will diminish in value, but cash is king. Cash provides options.
• Make wise purchases – do not buy luxury or un-needed items
• Adequate preparation for 7-10 days of survival without power should be a minimum requirement regardless of where you live
• Tools for debris removal, house repair, and fixing and repairing household appliances should be available
• Basic first aid kits should be kept in all cars and at home
• Personal relationships should be made with local doctors and police to facilitate first priority care for you and your family
• Consideration should be given to a safe haven, a place to go
• A family plan should exist in the event of communication failures (no cell phones)
• Arming with a shotgun, rifle, and pistol should be done. Weapons can be used for protection, hunting, or trade if needed. They will last a lifetime and if political policy changes they may become very valuable
• Further preparation should be made in the face of inflation – spend an extra $20/week grocery shopping on staples and dry goods
• Ammunition, Gold, and Jack Daniels will be the currency of the future. Whether or not you own a gun, purchase one to two boxes of shotgun shells, 9 mm, or .38 cal ammunition monthly. Purchase a bottle of Jack Daniels monthly. All can be sold later.
• Learn basic first aid
• Consider solar power supply options and re-evaluate power tools owned to be rechargeable
• Explore basics of wind and solar electricity to charge power tools and items to maintain basic civility
• Inverters that convert 12-volt battery supplies to 110 to use with modern amenities
• Find outdoor solar lights at garage sales or store sale’s racks and use as indoor lighting by moving the solar panel outdoors and the lights inside
• Accumulate good camping gear – lanterns, sleeping bags, stove, and tent. Camp for a weekend or longer periods to understand what it is like to live without basics. Add to gear over time to improve survivability. Every time I camp it seems I want more flashlights, batteries, knives, propane, and lanterns to make my life easier. If it rains I want to stay dry – bags, containers, tarps, etc.
• Blankets, jackets, scarves, gloves
• Store all tools, gear, in organized easy to take with you containers
• Ensure tetanus and other immunizations are up to date
• Stockpile basic medicines such as Aspirin and Benadryl, iodine tablets for radiation exposure
• Keep Mylar, Duct Tape, chain saw blades, tarps, nails, screws, tie wraps for emergency repairs and protection against weather, gas hazards
All of the above can be part of your basic lifestyle and should help you feel prepared without feeling like a nutso preparing for the end of the world. Choose to consider living with the idea that Wal-Mart and the grocery store may not be there tomorrow.
Test your preparation with the following questions:
1) I live in a winter storm area; can I survive the cold and snow without power for 7 days?
2) A tree lands on my house during a rainstorm, can I make repairs on my own?
3) A train derails spilling chlorine gas, what would I do?
4) I am traveling and a terrorist attack occurs, communication is cut with my family. What would we do?
5) Price controls take place and bread costs $10/loaf. Can I cook and survive?
6) Social unrest is occurring and the National Guard has implemented curfews. Power is out and the grocery stores are closed. What would I do?
7) Gasoline is available in rations of 20 gallons per month, what would I do?
8) We are evacuating to another locale due to …….I find myself in tense situations while buying gasoline, what would I do?
9) A nearby levee breaks flooding our town and my neighborhood, what would I do?
10) An earthquake occurs, or the ground shifts resulting in the collapse of my home, what would I do?
Books and websites I recommend
• “The Long Emergency”, James Howard Kunstler – a rather prophetic view of what is currently happening written in 2004
• “World Made by Hand”, James Howard Kunstler – a fictional look at ‘life after’. After collapse of the government due to some event such as war or social disorder we are living like it is 1890 again
• “The Creature from Jekyll Island” – How the Federal Reserve was created and the control of banking over all decisions
• “Jericho” – The CBS Television series, two seasons. The writing/acting is horrible in the first few episodes but improves. It is too much like other CBS shows. However, it strengthens. You should take away from this the relationships that form, how people deal with crisis, and the warring tribal nature that develops between towns
• “Atlas Shrugged”, Ayn Rand – a fictional look at the world in a sense where producers choose to no longer be victimized by policies that take from those who make
• “Lucifer’s Hammer”, Larry Niven – a fictional book I read in 1979 about a meteor colliding with the earth. The hero is an engineer who prepares and survives through self-sufficiency
• Peak Oil, Life after the Crash (http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/) – Worth reviewing to gain education about possible changes in the future
• Build a Wind Turbine (http://www.mdpub.com/Wind_Turbine/index.html) – Want to build a practical windmill or solar panel – great site to see someone doing it
12/28/2008 – by John Nelson (G8REngineer@yahoo.com)
I originally wrote this during the Christmas Holiday of 2008. Since I reference this paper in my blog, Economic Recovery? I wanted to post it here.--------------------------
My predictions for 2009 and 2010 are below. I felt compelled to put this together because I have shared these thoughts with my wife and many friends. I am bothered because I see a trend in daily newspapers and news programs to report with a degree of optimism, and then with surprise, when the news is worse than they had first reported. But, I keep finding the news is not worse than I expected.
As this year has gone by I have been concerned by current events as compared to history. Our government has bailed out defense contractors and other private companies before. In the 1930’s, the press and government denied what was taking place, but yet we have the benefit of history to know how bad things were. Today there is a certain level of optimism by many people and I hear comments like, “we are Americans and we always pull through.” While that statement may be true, I feel concern to blind acceptance that things are always going to be ok. Throughout this article I make references to natural disasters and other external events. I feel today’s economic issues are similar in that external forces are going to impact individual lives. If you ascertain nothing else from this writing I hope it is that the most significant economic changes in decades are currently occurring and preparing for the worst possible outcome will aid you in dealing with that possibility. Like all predictions or theories on trends, I may be wrong about the severity, it may be better or worse, or about the timing, events may come sooner or later. Regardless, I hope to convey concern and suggest preparation.
First, I want to provide some background information. I do not have cable television, I do not watch local news, and I do not read newspapers. On a daily and weekly basis I gather my news and opinions from the following sources:
Daily
• Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com) – I first review world markets, particularly Asia and Europe just prior to going to bed and when I first wake. Second, the news wire provided here is far superior to any other source available
• Drudge Report (http://www.drudgereport.com) – a great link to numerous worldwide news articles
• Peak Oil (http://www.peakoil.com) - a link to various energy, climate change, policy, and other news articles
• Kirk Report (http://www.kirkreport.com) – Kirk is a day trader and offers stock information. But, he also links to a huge number of financial articles and opinions focusing on Fed and other central bank policies
• Economic Populist (http://www.economicpopulist.org) – Average people’s opinions about what is currently taking place. Of most interest are the specifics of research including graphs, data, charts and details to defend positions. Short articles, highly informative.
• Seeking Alpha (http://www.seekingalpha.com) – Similar to Economic Populist
• Yahoo Finance Home Page (http://finance.yahoo.com/) – What the average person sees for headlines
• NBC Nightly News (Podcast) – download video each day and watch following morning
• CNBC Fast Money (Podcast) – download video each day and watch the following morning
• BBC Global News (Podcast) – download and usually listen the next day
Weekly
• Kunstler Cast (Podcast) – James Howard Kunstler weekly podcast. Focus is on the end of suburbia due to changes with fossil fuels
• Bob’s Gold Price Column (http://goldprice.org/bob) – what the doom and gloomers think about gold and inflation
• Matt Simmons (http://www.simmons.com) – an energy expert
Change is taking place around us. If you had told me ten years ago that I might find myself living in a situation where I would not have power for 5-10 days, not be able to go to the grocery store to buy food – especially refrigerated items, I would find lines at gas stations, or buildings around me would be boarded up taking on a third world look, I would have laughed! However, I have lived through that situation in the summer of 2004 in New Smyrna Beach due to the hurricanes Charley, Frances, and Jean. From that experience I re-evaluated what it meant to be prepared. I thought I had everything I needed to survive: a couple of gallons of water, a bow saw, candles and a few flashlights. I learned how naïve I was. Since then, I have added a generator, chain saw and spare chains, lanterns, camping gear, stockpiles of gasoline each June, regular testing of the generator, and many other items.
Am I crazy or am I prudently prepared? Any resident of the state of Florida who does not keep minimum supplies is living in a state of denial. Other disasters and events have struck in the last 25 years in the United States and elsewhere – how prepared would you be to take care of your family?
• Northridge Earthquake
• Hurricane’s Katrina, Charley, Andrew, Hugo, Floyd, etc
• Coal Ash Levee break in Tennessee
• Devastating tornadoes
• Mount St. Helen’s
• Christmas Tsunami in Indonesia
• Rogue wave – Daytona Beach 1996 (or so)
• Springtime flooding in the Midwest
• Terrorist attacks of 9/11/2001
• Rodney King riots
• Heat wave in Europe killing hundreds in France
• War in Sarajevo, a beautiful Olympic city
• Cholera outbreaks in Africa, 2008
My point is disasters and upheavals occur regularly, and without warning. Our ability to take care of ourselves is what matters in each case. One need only picture scenes from the news of how Hurricane Katrina victims responded versus the same, significant, devastation from Hurricane Charley in Punta Gorda, Florida and the importance of proper and prudent preparation becomes apparent. More importantly, self-sufficiency and the ability to survive without reliance on others or civil authorities is incredibly apparent.
Most citizens in the United States have lost the ability to think and be self-sufficient for themselves. Take an automobile owner’s manual from the 1960’s and compare it to today, 40 years later. My 1967 Mustang has details on lubricating the chassis, changing a tire, performing valve adjustments, and other maintenance. Today’s owners manual states the warranty will be voided if the work is not performed by an authorized service center. I would assert the average person, especially Generation X or Y, will call roadside assistance and wait 90 minutes to have a tire changed instead of taking 10 minutes and performing the work themselves. Furthermore, if food becomes an issue of concern I believe most citizens will be at a loss. They will not know how to grow or kill food due to the basic belief that food comes from the grocery store. I had a friend share his concerns about the differences today versus the Great Depression – in the 30’s he feels a person would have given his place in a food line to another out of kindness and sacrifice. Today, he feels your life is at risk due to the selfishness of most people and their inability to survive without assistance.
One problem society seems to face is forgetting our history. As recently as summer 2008 gasoline prices were over $4.00/gallon. Behaviors were changing: scooter and motorcycle riding was up, SUV’s purchases declined catastrophically, people moved closer to work or considered changing jobs to reduce commutes, trips were combined, leisure travel was eliminated, and overall there was a general trend toward conservation. In 1974, due to political events, Americans had to ration gasoline resulting in huge shortages. Odd and even days were used to determine purchases and none could be made on Sunday’s. An immediate move toward smaller cars was made. To a lesser extent, the same problems arose in the early 1980’s and panic over dependence on oil again ensued.
During 2008, many newsworthy events have taken place, but without the benefit of seeing them all at once it is hard to imagine the economic and societal decay taking place around us:
• Rice and flour shortages on the west coast as Asian populations understood shortages oversees
• Rising global food prices due to US policies on ethanol
• Gas shortages in the Southeast US due to supply problems after hurricanes
• Over a dozen airlines went into bankruptcy or out of business
• Major brand stores went bankrupt (Steak n Ale, Circuit City, Linens and Things, etc)
• More than 170 banks failed as of 12/1/2008
• Christmas holiday spending was the lowest in 40 years
• Year over year housing price decline of 13%
• Unemployment claims are at their highest in 25 years
• Diminishing new job opportunities, compounding unemployment problems
• Dow Jones high of 14,000 in October 2007, low of 7570 in November 2008 – 45% erasure of value
• 1 out of 10 mortgages is in default or behind on payments
• Rising defaults on credit cards and car loans
Throughout the year, news sources have reported events with an element of denial or ultimately surprise when the data become available. Just this week, on 12/26/08 I heard the following reported on Fox News Network:
“Retailers were surprised at the worse drop in holiday sales in over 40 years.”
They went on to report possible reasons such as: there were 6 less shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, a holiday snowstorm that kept consumers away from malls. The comical reporting came next: some consumers may be concerned about job loss and not spending as much, credit cards are maxed out and no new credit is available. Last but not least, they reported that the economy of the United States is consumer based and that the total GDP – the production of all products and services – is 70% consumerism. Thus, without the citizens consuming the economy is grinding to a halt. ‘They’ need to force ‘us’ to start consuming.
Our problem as a country and with our current economic situation is we do not make anything that anyone else wants. We make money and recycle it within our own borders. Thus, growth is a fantasy based on a false reality. The best example is real estate over the last six years; the rapid growth had nothing to do with a true increase in value due to supply and demand. Instead, the easy availability of credit perpetuated a debt-based drive toward home ownership where prior lending standard required 20% down (leveraging of 5:1) now allowed 5% down (leveraging 20:1). Finally, these standards were reduced to 0% or even -5% down – the equivalent of infinite leveraging. This was a house of cards doomed to collapse. During this time, the media constantly reported that housing prices would recover within a three to six months. This took place throughout late 2007 and all through 2008.
I had to set the background for where we have been before I felt I could make predictions on where we are going. My synopsis is below with a predictive narrative and finally recommendations to plan for the next 2-3 years:
• Housing – there will be no recovery in housing before the end of 2010. Housing prices in some areas inflated as much as 2%/month (24% per annum). Historically, housing rise at a rate equal to or just above inflation. Thus, it will take 10-15 years to work back to the 2006 highs. This is compounded further by an inventory of 4 million homes for sale when historic inventories are between 2 and 2.5 million. Last but not least, lending is not available to purchase homes with debt.
• Credit – Consumers will not have credit readily available until late 2009 or early 2010. Our consumption based economy will remain frozen until the spending engine can restart.
• Equity Markets – The Dow and S&P500 remain over valued. Current estimates of average earnings for the S&P are about $55. Thus, the S&P is trading on a forward multiplier of about 18-20. Analysts have consistently overvalued earnings and multipliers throughout 2008. Many blue-chip, dividend paying stocks are trading closer to a multiplier of 7-10. Historic norms are 14-15. Thus, using a multiplier of 10, the S&P should be at 550.
• Currency – The Fed has printed huge sums of monies. Taxpayers generally pay about $1 trillion per year in federal income taxes. In the last 12 months Congress and the Fed have promised about $7 trillion in bail outs, stimulus, and balance sheet increases. As large as the numbers are, a huge deflationary move has taken place due to the erasure of debt, thus offsetting some of the severity of the inflationary monetary policies. If other governments reduce lending rates and increase currencies, the dollar will not be devalued. However, inflation is inevitable.
• Oil and Energy – Oil has plunged to the mid-$30s from a high of $147/bbl in July 2008. Commodity markets tend to overshoot both directions to the high side and the low side while supply and demand realign. The issue with oil is not one that we are going to have no oil. Instead, the marginal cost to produce each subsequent barrel of oil is higher than the preceding barrel. This is the root concept of Peak Oil; supply will not keep pace with demand. Hubbert’s peak in the early 1970’s in the United States is well-documented and the same will apply to world supply and demand. During the peak there will be wild oscillations in prices, supply, and demand. We are at the beginning of the peak and experiencing the swings.
• Climatic Change – the Green lobby is promoting huge expenditures due to perceived global warming. Regardless of political views, climatic change appears to be taking place. The summer Artic ice in 2008 melted at a rate that allowed transit across the polar ice cap from North America to Asia and Europe that had not been possible due to being previously frozen for the last thousand years. Plants not exposed for a thousand years appeared this summer. The Greenland Ice shelf is melting at an unprecedented rate and the risk of a significant piece sliding into the ocean is increasing daily. There is less snow and ice to reflect sunlight causing a possible natural exponential warming trend that can not be reduced. Salinity values in the North Atlantic are changing, thus impacting the flow of the gulf stream and the natural cooling process in the northern hemisphere. These changes may be normal on a geological time scale which we can not measure or they may be due to increases in carbon in the atmosphere driven by man made changes in the last 150 years. Regardless, they appear to be taking place at a significant rate. This climatic change will impact coast cities, farming communities, water supplies, and world hunger.
• Geopolitical Issues – The middle-east remains an area of concern with religious based hatred of western civilizations being a catalyst for terrorism and oil policy changes. Israel has ramped up hostilities in Gaza Strip and India and Pakistan are both nuclear powers with increasing hostilities. Russia is establishing herself again as a world power, particularly with an interest on controlling energy and pipelines feeding Europe.
• Politics in the United States – A new, inexperienced president will try to create policies to save the country as he promised during the campaigns. At the same time, the House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, has a strong liberal agenda that she believes she can now accomplish including: union supported legislation, national health care, increased taxes and wealthy producers, and a general move to a more socialized country. President Obama will work to pass legislation to make owning firearms more difficult, most likely through taxation on ammunition or illegality of personally possessing ammunition like Switzerland successfully implemented in 2007. He will try to create 3 million jobs, but that will not impact the economy for 5-7 years. He will support another stimulus package and saving the auto makers, moves that will further add to our debts.
In 2009, I see a temporary stock market rally based on the euphoria of a new president and false confidence that he can implement programs that will save the country and the average person without significant ownership or pain on their part. The House will pass another stimulus package which will not stimulate the economy as consumers hoard cash out of fear of losing their jobs. The president will be tested by events in the middle-east that will ultimately result in him appearing weak as nothing can be done to prevent the hostilities that have brewed for thousands of years. Throughout first quarter 2009 unemployment will continue to rise at unprecedented rates, reaching 10% by April and 12% by July. Housing prices will continue to decline as lending is not available. As unemployment increases, consumers will further reduce spending worried about their own future and possible job losses. Those that have a job will be reluctant to consider moving and will not purchase existing or new homes.
Company earnings will decline as consumer spending slows and worldwide spending continues to decline. The stock market will test new lows at 7000, 6000, and finally 5000 before settling into a period of flat trading between 5000 and 6500 for three to five years. The media will begin to report, with surprise, a rise in consumer prices and producer prices in late 2009 as inflation begins to take hold due to the failed policies of the Fed and Congress. Housing again will not restart because lending rates will increase from 5% back to rates not seen since the early 1980’s of 12-14%. Oil prices will also increase for three reasons: a devaluation of the dollar against world currencies, reduction in supply from OPEC to gain a foothold back to the $80/bbl level they desire, and the previously discussed middle-east tensions causing further supply concerns. Hyperinflation will take hold in early 2010 causing President Obama to sign executive orders for price controls on basic staples such as milk, bread, flour, and sugar. Ensuing hoarding and shortages will occur as citizens try to stockpile supplies in anticipation of shortages. Riots and general unrest, particularly in New Orleans, Detroit, Washington DC, and Los Angeles will be reported. These riots will occur because the average population has not been taught how to survive or be self-sufficient. Instead, they have been raised as consumers with all of the requirements of civility readily available at a nearby Wal-Mart.
My recommendations are to prudently prepare. Just like an impending storm in a coastal Florida city, preparation will be the key to survival. Some of these changes will happen slowly, others rapidly. Preparation may be as simple as just thinking about what might happen. Regardless, good preparation may involve purchasing or stockpiling goods not normally kept.
• Investments should be made over the short term with sales into rallies and purchases in the troughs
• Short the S&P with the SDS if the symbol goes below 80 (or 85) and sell when above 110. You can repeat this strategy many times
• Reduce debt – do not take on new debt
• Refinance at historically low interest rates. They will be at 10-15% in the future. Refinance below 5.25%. You will not see this again in your lifetime.
• Do not make debt based purchases when rates are rising or above 9%. The monthly cost of cash flow is 30% minimum
• Hoard cash – it will diminish in value, but cash is king. Cash provides options.
• Make wise purchases – do not buy luxury or un-needed items
• Adequate preparation for 7-10 days of survival without power should be a minimum requirement regardless of where you live
• Tools for debris removal, house repair, and fixing and repairing household appliances should be available
• Basic first aid kits should be kept in all cars and at home
• Personal relationships should be made with local doctors and police to facilitate first priority care for you and your family
• Consideration should be given to a safe haven, a place to go
• A family plan should exist in the event of communication failures (no cell phones)
• Arming with a shotgun, rifle, and pistol should be done. Weapons can be used for protection, hunting, or trade if needed. They will last a lifetime and if political policy changes they may become very valuable
• Further preparation should be made in the face of inflation – spend an extra $20/week grocery shopping on staples and dry goods
• Ammunition, Gold, and Jack Daniels will be the currency of the future. Whether or not you own a gun, purchase one to two boxes of shotgun shells, 9 mm, or .38 cal ammunition monthly. Purchase a bottle of Jack Daniels monthly. All can be sold later.
• Learn basic first aid
• Consider solar power supply options and re-evaluate power tools owned to be rechargeable
• Explore basics of wind and solar electricity to charge power tools and items to maintain basic civility
• Inverters that convert 12-volt battery supplies to 110 to use with modern amenities
• Find outdoor solar lights at garage sales or store sale’s racks and use as indoor lighting by moving the solar panel outdoors and the lights inside
• Accumulate good camping gear – lanterns, sleeping bags, stove, and tent. Camp for a weekend or longer periods to understand what it is like to live without basics. Add to gear over time to improve survivability. Every time I camp it seems I want more flashlights, batteries, knives, propane, and lanterns to make my life easier. If it rains I want to stay dry – bags, containers, tarps, etc.
• Blankets, jackets, scarves, gloves
• Store all tools, gear, in organized easy to take with you containers
• Ensure tetanus and other immunizations are up to date
• Stockpile basic medicines such as Aspirin and Benadryl, iodine tablets for radiation exposure
• Keep Mylar, Duct Tape, chain saw blades, tarps, nails, screws, tie wraps for emergency repairs and protection against weather, gas hazards
All of the above can be part of your basic lifestyle and should help you feel prepared without feeling like a nutso preparing for the end of the world. Choose to consider living with the idea that Wal-Mart and the grocery store may not be there tomorrow.
Test your preparation with the following questions:
1) I live in a winter storm area; can I survive the cold and snow without power for 7 days?
2) A tree lands on my house during a rainstorm, can I make repairs on my own?
3) A train derails spilling chlorine gas, what would I do?
4) I am traveling and a terrorist attack occurs, communication is cut with my family. What would we do?
5) Price controls take place and bread costs $10/loaf. Can I cook and survive?
6) Social unrest is occurring and the National Guard has implemented curfews. Power is out and the grocery stores are closed. What would I do?
7) Gasoline is available in rations of 20 gallons per month, what would I do?
8) We are evacuating to another locale due to …….I find myself in tense situations while buying gasoline, what would I do?
9) A nearby levee breaks flooding our town and my neighborhood, what would I do?
10) An earthquake occurs, or the ground shifts resulting in the collapse of my home, what would I do?
Books and websites I recommend
• “The Long Emergency”, James Howard Kunstler – a rather prophetic view of what is currently happening written in 2004
• “World Made by Hand”, James Howard Kunstler – a fictional look at ‘life after’. After collapse of the government due to some event such as war or social disorder we are living like it is 1890 again
• “The Creature from Jekyll Island” – How the Federal Reserve was created and the control of banking over all decisions
• “Jericho” – The CBS Television series, two seasons. The writing/acting is horrible in the first few episodes but improves. It is too much like other CBS shows. However, it strengthens. You should take away from this the relationships that form, how people deal with crisis, and the warring tribal nature that develops between towns
• “Atlas Shrugged”, Ayn Rand – a fictional look at the world in a sense where producers choose to no longer be victimized by policies that take from those who make
• “Lucifer’s Hammer”, Larry Niven – a fictional book I read in 1979 about a meteor colliding with the earth. The hero is an engineer who prepares and survives through self-sufficiency
• Peak Oil, Life after the Crash (http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/) – Worth reviewing to gain education about possible changes in the future
• Build a Wind Turbine (http://www.mdpub.com/Wind_Turbine/index.html) – Want to build a practical windmill or solar panel – great site to see someone doing it
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